Which banks, if any, do you think will fail this time around?

Wookster

Thrugelmir wrote: »

With what means?

The RBS Group balance sheet contained £1,051 billion of assets as at the 30th June 2011.

That'd be the helicopter drop!

antrobus

Thrugelmir wrote: »

RBS is in the watch list following the latest EU stress tests.

RBS is 84% state owned. So it ain't going down. Might become 100% state owned tho.

vivatifosi

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

UK banks? None.

I disagree. In some instances the Bank of Mum and Dad will fail.

Blacklight

Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

Mrs_Bones

Blacklight wrote: »

Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation

I think that's the one bank that will survive. I can see it moving out of the UK though and going back to it's original market base. The far east is going to be where the money is in the foreseeable future and they do have a good knowledge base for that region.

Thrugelmir

antrobus wrote: »

RBS is 84% state owned. So it ain't going down. Might become 100% state owned tho.

If RBS goes under. Then the UK would loose its cherished AAA rating.
This would affect all the banks. As would raise the cost of borrowing in the international money markets.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

UK banks? None.

:rotfl:Is that cos most of them already went under.

Generali

UK banks (ex-HSBC and Standard Chartered) are looking dodgy possibly.

Macquarie Bank in Aus could be facing a world of pain if interbank funding dries up again.

Societe Generale in France?????

Masomnia

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

In theory none however Tier 1 capital is made up in large parts by Government debt

If government debt halves in value it could be similar to subprime debt which was also used as Tier 1 I believe.

I dont think its quite as bad this time. Cost of debt is likely to keep rising for a decade after it bottoms


The reason Santander shares yield 9.3% is people believe they will suffer greatly from Spains problems
I believe they are not totally reliant on one government or all of them even but do need positive world GDP in order to make ongoing profits.
Any treasuries they own will be sold at a loss I guess

AA rating means they may no longer qualify as pure cash or Tier 1. It could be a kind of bank run

Im not sure that is how it works but that would be the most damaging scenario, a tidal rush but they all should be ok if its a slow loss


If world GDP goes negative and they get the rug pulled out from underneath them with cash losses on bad faith in government.
It would be the end for the weaker ones I guess


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhB97XF9yTQ&feature=player_detailpage#t=393s

Haaaang on. So US treasuries no longer count towards reserves?!

That sounds pretty serious to me.

sabretoothtigger

Macquarie Bank in Aus could be facing a world of pain if interbank funding dries up again.

Societe Generale in France?????

I hope not, Macquarie are backing one of my gold explorers in Nicaragua

And SocGen I wanted to buy one of their structured products. Thats not much use if they disappear


RBS could be left to go broke and I think we'd have no choice if really forced. I cant see that happening unless gilts fall in price greatly and I keep hearing UK is a safe haven :laugh: Maybe we benefit from USA downgrade

So US treasuries no longer count towards reserves

Maybe ? I read some say AA+ doesnt qualify as 100% cash. I heard about a margin change so its no longer quite as good.

I think AA+ will still count as Tier 1 but what if the price falls, the banks have less reserves?