Which banks, if any, do you think will fail this time around?

drc

Which banks, if any, do you think will fail this time around (as in go the way of Lehmans, not being bailed out)?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

UK banks? None.

nollag2006

No UK banks

Thrugelmir

RBS is in the watch list following the latest EU stress tests.

abaxas

Since we don't have data on who used the SLS scheme. I'd fair to assume all UK banks are still in a 'failed' state.

sabretoothtigger

In theory none however Tier 1 capital is made up in large parts by Government debt

If government debt halves in value it could be similar to subprime debt which was also used as Tier 1 I believe.

I dont think its quite as bad this time. Cost of debt is likely to keep rising for a decade after it bottoms


The reason Santander shares yield 9.3% is people believe they will suffer greatly from Spains problems
I believe they are not totally reliant on one government or all of them even but do need positive world GDP in order to make ongoing profits.
Any treasuries they own will be sold at a loss I guess

AA rating means they may no longer qualify as pure cash or Tier 1. It could be a kind of bank run

Im not sure that is how it works but that would be the most damaging scenario, a tidal rush but they all should be ok if its a slow loss


If world GDP goes negative and they get the rug pulled out from underneath them with cash losses on bad faith in government.
It would be the end for the weaker ones I guess


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhB97XF9yTQ&feature=player_detailpage#t=393s

Thrugelmir

abaxas wrote: »

Since we don't have data on who used the SLS scheme. I'd fair to assume all UK banks are still in a 'failed' state.

SLS is no longer the issue.

The bank paid back a whopping £57.8bn in government loans during the first half of this year so that its state loans now stand at £37bn.

As part of those repayments, City A.M. understands that it has fully repaid the loans it took under the special liquidity scheme (SLS). Individual banks are not allowed to declare when they have done so for fear of making it obvious which other banks have failed to pay back the aid so far.

It also issued £25bn in debt while markets were relatively stable, meaning that it only needs to sell another £5-10bn to get through the year.

But it might not be enough if the bank’s growing “resilience” can’t keep up with a spiralling crisis that could send its struggling customers’ finances into tailspin. “The markets are now closed,” Horta-Os!rio admitted ominously yesterday.

http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/bottom-line/talking-growth-preparing-crisis

abaxas

Thrugelmir wrote: »

SLS is no longer the issue.



http://www.cityam.com/news-and-analysis/bottom-line/talking-growth-preparing-crisis

Money still needs to be paid back!

My point is that since CC1, all banks have been in a failed state.

Wookster

Thrugelmir wrote: »

RBS is in the watch list following the latest EU stress tests.

Sure is, however I think its safe to assume that the coalition will backstop all its operations if the need arises.

Thrugelmir

Wookster wrote: »

Sure is, however I think its safe to assume that the coalition will backstop all its operations if the need arises.

With what means?

The RBS Group balance sheet contained £1,051 billion of assets as at the 30th June 2011.

Thrugelmir

abaxas wrote: »

Money still needs to be paid back!

Every month Lloyds is contracting its mortgage book as debt is either repaid or redeemed.

Also margins will be slowly being improved along with the quality of the debt.