When are the markets going to back to 'normal'?

prudryden

Reduce your equity related investments down to your good sleep mode. You could also maintain a somewhat defensive posture, such as consumer staples, pharmas, gold/silver, quality good dividend equities. Technically good but voodoo bad.

Ark_Welder

pqrdef wrote: »

What makes you think things will ever be the same again? The economic dominance of the world by the West isn't a permanent given. It's over. We aren't in a normal recession, we're at the start of a long decline. Get used to it.

U.S. manufacturing was the engine of the 20th century, but it will never be the same again. Devaluing the dollar won't make it competitive again. After the BRICs there are plenty of other countries queuing up with large supplies of cheap labour.

Remember the U.S. banks are still keeping huge commercial property losses off their balance sheets, which they'll have to write off some time. Governments are keeping huge unfunded liabilities out of their accounts and playing games with negative real interest rates. Vast amounts of funny money have been printed, which are supposed to be withdrawn when the time is right, but the necessary conditions are nowhere in sight. All the news is false, but reality will force its way out eventually.

Another contrarian buy signal?

What are the unfunded liabilities? Future liabilities are not today's debts.

jamesd

Ark_Welder wrote: »

I was fortunate: 19th October 1987 occurred relatively early in my (other than cash) investment life, so I didn't have much in equities when it fell. Those were interesting times. It is only with hindsight that they appear to be less-so.

But it was a useful experience for me. It taught me to take an interest in what was going on in the business world, the value of having a diverse portfolio using several asset classes, and it helped me to avoid the excesses of DotCom. I might have said this in another post, so apologies if it is repetition.

Not that I recall, but a little repetition is fine. I found the events I was learning through interesting and educational also. Particularly tracking daily variations which gave me very useful context.

Ark_Welder wrote: »

So, if 2020 is seen as the time when 'now' will be a distant memory, is that a current buy signal?

Not today. The saying that comes to mind today is "don't try to catch a falling knife".

pqrdef wrote: »

What makes you think things will ever be the same again? The economic dominance of the world by the West isn't a permanent given. It's over. We aren't in a normal recession, we're at the start of a long decline. Get used to it.

So? That doesn't prevent people from making money investing unless you're asserting that the whole world is in a long decline.

Thrugelmir

jamesd wrote: »

Not today. The saying that comes to mind today is "don't try to catch a falling knife".

There's too much focus on the indices. Rather than the component parts. A cash generative business on Monday is no different today.

The herd instinct kicks in at times like this. Market falls. People sell. Market falls further.

Um....... They are the market.

sabretoothtigger

We aren't in a normal recession, we're at the start of a long decline. Get used to it.

No I dont think thats true either. Turkey is growing at 11% and other countries, Im sure everywhere has some kind of trouble but do we really expect the world to stand still because of politics especially just the bloated western rubbish

We keep hearing how they got no money, everything is debt so why would anything they say matter that much.

I wish my bank did everything I said because I owe them so much, unfortunately they do whatever makes the most money.
I dont see any long decline in markets except through war or other stupidity

jamesd

Agreed about herd instinct. The interesting question is whether it's better to do a little selling with the herd to avoid following it down or whether it'll be temporary to be followed by a quick rally.

le_loup

Quick rally or slow rally, it will rally.

Money_Saving_Dude

almondsalty wrote: »

Today was a very bad day for the FTSE 100, Mail claims fears of a 'double dip' are mounting. Now that would be catastrophic to say the least. Fingers crossed this doesn't happen.

No, today was a very bad day...

Are we on the down slope of the latest Kondratiev wave? See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave

So the markets and growth in the West are not looking good. But they will recover (or will they? -- that they always have in the past doesn't mean they will in the future).

Remember, past performance is no guarantee of the future. So if a fund/share/index has always climbed, what do you infer from that? That it will continue to climb? Or that it is now ready to fall? And, of course, vice versa. DYOR -- do your own research.

erdd2

What is " normal"?

gadgetmind

SmarterBankingSolutions wrote: »

Bank shares seem stupidly low, approximately half of 6-month high - Huge potential to make long-term profits. Get them while they're 'hot'

But be prepared for it to take several years for them to come good.