FTSE100 falling fast!

sabretoothtigger

Essar 'tipped' by Questor as an avoid. He does play it safe so not a great surprise as that recent refinery bankruptcy shows margins are tight

They are leaving the FT100 soon which creates a lower price for the sake of it. They will have to fight their way back in, I would say a higher Rupee worth is the easiest way guage that possibility ?
I think the company actually loses money the higher oil goes due to arcane Indian law that forces the cost on the companies

I did think the shares would lose 100p this week, maybe next as volume has never been higher. As its selling, it reinforces the negative. The actual news is what matters though

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/questor/9120860/Questor-share-tip-Essar-Energys-Indian-woes-may-drag-on.html

ess0two

The 3k i put in is worth 1k at the mo,i cant see anything changing soon.
I'm loathed to bail out yet,so i've just written it off,maybe some day in the future it'll come good but i doubt it.

StevieJ

ess0two wrote: »

The 3k i put in is worth 1k at the mo,i cant see anything changing soon.
I'm loathed to bail out yet,so i've just written it off,maybe some day in the future it'll come good but i doubt it.

Makes those Shell options look like winning the lottery :eek: I must say I had dabble in my ISA at 439, but sold at 419 because I wanted to reinvest elsewhere.

sabretoothtigger

I have a hard time selling at a loss but I always scale in nowadays since I realised how crazy finance has become. Good strategy to weigh it against better opportunities

I dont think the case for Essar is ruined, Questor mentions the power stations and thats why I got them and of course theres been hitches.
I dont think they even making a profit but the basic idea is sound, India is absolutely desperate for power.
It cant grow without it, so is the government so incompetent that it would cause essar to fail trying to meet that need. Its very disappointing how their supposedly capitalist premier has failed to bring them out of nationalism. The whole Indian market is not where it should be and Ive been looking at them for over ten years

i've just written it off,

The price reflects that the majority have done this. Questor does say its a speculative buy like an aim company I think he means, that is awful reference for a blue chip but they do have potential still.
The worst scenario I see is shares being delisted for a sub 200 price as the parent company decides now is a good time to buy


The way the share performed is within expectations, I had hoped for better of course.

Hard to value them, I used to hold Shell as the best out there but sold them as I think they are near fair value.
Hold some BP still but for energy I would rate Centrica or maybe BG group for the future.
I think natural gas is very cheap energy, if Essar were smart enough they'd go that way also for power generation

My two biggest holdings in energy are
Petrofac Ltd
Range Resources Ltd.
Also I have junior oils trust

The Essar problem is they have become just as risky as RRL exploring Somalia somehow and this market hates risk especially with no reward.

ess0two

I get the impression they've upset someone or aint liked in India,seems to be too much bad luck / red tape being thrown their way.

I'm considering binning the share option i've just started,it buys me £125 worth of stock each month,but i dont pay tax or NI on that amount so really costs me £70 ish per month.

On the refinery front here,they're investing and are positioning themselves should Coryton shut??

sabretoothtigger

I thought the same and India is just that kind of country I think. Under the table deals, the laws dont make alot of sense. Also they suffer from an oil connection to Iran, lots of upset

Coryton shut should ease things in their favour, less competition. But I dont know how these things work really.

Dont your share options give you the chance to just take cash at the end instead of actually buying the shares. That seems pretty safe.

ess0two

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I thought the same and India is just that kind of country I think. Under the table deals, the laws dont make alot of sense. Also they suffer from an oil connection to Iran, lots of upset

Coryton shut should ease things in their favour, less competition. But I dont know how these things work really.

Dont your share options give you the chance to just take cash at the end instead of actually buying the shares. That seems pretty safe.

I chose the option to buy shares each month instead of a lump sum or shares.

Had some real good options doing this with Shell,rose tinted glasses etc swayed my decision,lol.

Probably give it 12mths and see whats happening,before closing option.

sheffield_lad

Ummm under the counter deals in dodgy countries, sounds like my AIM shares lol, I used to invest in only ftse companies but find the aim market is more risky but far far more exciting!

I still do share saves as these are risk free (in fact I was banging my head against a brick wall recently trying to understand how some don't take the offers up which is MADNESS)!!

miners are my thing currently (BMR), but will look at anything which is a fast burner

sabretoothtigger

Last two days for ESSAR were on strong volume with a good rise.

Its risen 40% since the low now, I sold a bit here but not because I think its especially weak just because I have to rebalance elsewhere

121 to 115 would be a target for downside as the previous highs of March
152 and 211 are inline with the grander decline.
Its hard to guess what is the motivation for the rise in order to guess how far it'll go but its natural for it to reverse after leaving the FTSE, this was forced selling done for no good reason

ess0two

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Last two days for ESSAR were on strong volume with a good rise.

Its risen 40% since the low now, I sold a bit here but not because I think its especially weak just because I have to rebalance elsewhere

121 to 115 would be a target for downside as the previous highs of March
152 and 211 are inline with the grander decline.
Its hard to guess what is the motivation for the rise in order to guess how far it'll go but its natural for it to reverse after leaving the FTSE, this was forced selling done for no good reason

Its a definate head scratcher??

Although were sending large volumes of fuel South,to the extent that diesel is extremely tight in the Northwest.

Were just a small cog in the business.