Cool graph from the BBC

Greed

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456991/html/default.stm

lypsey

Yes it illustrates very very clearly why the house market is going to crash .... big style

meanmachine_2

Not so "cool" is this one.

Although it does illustrate how out of whack the market is.

And no that's not a prediction of an imminent crash, more a suggestion that prices seem very vulnerable to some kind of shock.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456991/html/nn2page1.stm

roswell

ah may as well stick a recent one in if were going to show graphs.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6213549.stm

lypsey

Is the shock you talk about meanmachine - 1 or 2% Interest rate rises (and believe me if it is as much as 2% then the market will be self correcting and crash big time) , or is it unemployment rising , or immigration having a negative effect on wages in the building sector etc , or the ten fold increase in BTL ditching their portfolios .
Remember a FTB will not come back into a falling market

Take your pick ... its happening

cwcw

lypsey wrote:

Is the shock you talk about meanmachine - 1 or 2% Interest rate rises (and believe me if it is as much as 2% then the market will be self correcting and crash big time) , or is it unemployment rising , or immigration having a negative effect on wages in the building sector etc , or the ten fold increase in BTL ditching their portfolios .
Remember a FTB will not come back into a falling market

Take your pick ... its happening

What is happening?

challengedavid

cwcw wrote:

What is happening?

nothing by the looks of it

ManAtHome

Hey this one's 3-d and everything, kewli-wewli...

http://www.creditaction.org.uk/images/clip_image002_016.gif

meanmachine_2

lypsey wrote:

Is the shock you talk about meanmachine - 1 or 2% Interest rate rises (and believe me if it is as much as 2% then the market will be self correcting and crash big time) , or is it unemployment rising , or immigration having a negative effect on wages in the building sector etc , or the ten fold increase in BTL ditching their portfolios .
Remember a FTB will not come back into a falling market

Take your pick ... its happening

Sadly it isn't happening. It's actually getting more ridiculous.

Imagine 1988 into 1989 and beyond, but without the double shock of MIRAS and high interest rates.

Well our 1989 was 2001, when prices went beyond their peak of 4.5x wages, and they've kept going up beyond, in lieu of a shock.

Doesn't mean a correction isn't going to happen, but until Brits are shocked out of their obsession with debt, it'll keep getting worse.

Of course, the higher prices go, the smaller that shock needs to be...

free4440273

it's almost as if 'old school' economic and valuation metrics no longer apply (i still think they do!): the debt mountain keeps on getting worse but banks are not worried; house prices relative to income keep on getting worse but the banks are not worried (they just increase the multiples of salaries for example); inflation (real inflation) gets worse but the banks nor companies seem worried (china will come to our rescue again, they seem to be saying); the stock market pays scant regard to the threat of future rate increases (big deal, they say, what's 5.0 per cent compared to 10 per cent of the 90s? we can take it, and the BoE will come to our rescue again). Perversely, all of this could suggest that the economy is in good shape and that everything is rosy (which i don't believe it is - quite the opposite actually). I know i have said this before, and do not wish to sound like a broken turkey, but when you look at the fundamentals (there used to be a such a thing) this will surely end in an economic bloodbath. will the banks chase those bad debts? or write them off? will the BoE just cut rates again to alleviate any signs of a recession in the housing market? will unemployment thus continually remain as low as it is? inflation has picked up and yet wages have not kept pace (except for City folk!!!). what i mean to say is, what the hell is so different this time compared to the 90s to make them think that continually readjusting rates can stave off a 'crash' of any kind, because clearly they believe they can. finally, i have said for some time and will stick my neck out again, i think rates will be 6-7 per cent by the end of next year but what the hell do i know. hope everybody had a lovely xmas also

lapat

how do you make that out when there are constant reports being published on how much house prices are still rising although yes not as much in previous years but they are still risisng adequaltley enough to make a profit for some of us

see nationwides link blelow

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/