Ladders can be dangerous, especially housing ladders

Jegersmart

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

Predicting a further 30% drop in house prices is not sensible. It is not logical. It will not happen.

I would advocate against assuming something will not happen just because it either a) has not happened before or b) that it seems "improbable".

I am bearish on house prices currently, and a 30% drop in prices would seem to make sense to me in order to get back to a more balanced market in terms of salary level to house price ratio. Having said that, there are a few ways to achieve this - one would be for the housing market to stay flat whilst we have 3-5 years of relatively high inflation - or a mixture of factors like that. I am not predicting a a sharp drop or anything of the sort I am just saying that if house prices drift sideways and down over 5 years by 10-15% whilst we have a 3 to 5% currency devaluation each year in that period then we would not be far off to be honest.....

Turnbull2000

Oh dear. Those 'stagnent' prices are in real terms, with nominal values still rising around almost 40%.

macaque_2

Aberdeenangarse wrote: »

No one's saying they'll double in 10 years, but looking at the worst case scenario, they'll probably manage to keep up with inflation over that time frame. In the meantime you'll just have to fight over what little rental accommodation you can find.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14135553

Thats not what I said. In the years leading up to 2007, house prices doubled (and more). If they can double in 10 years, they can go down by 30% in 10 years

PasturesNew

If I went back in time more than 30 years, in a time machine, and robbed myself every week/month between then and now ... rushing back to the present to pile up all the income I'd got every week/month ... I'd have about £200k.

Not everybody will ever be buying £500k houses... or trading up in £50k-100k leaps every couple of years.

What nonsense.

Loughton_Monkey

Jegersmart wrote: »

I would advocate against assuming something will not happen just because it either a) has not happened before or b) that it seems "improbable"......

And I can't disagree with that.

But you are putting 'thoughts' into my head. When I advocate that it will not happen, it is not because it has never happened, nor simply because it is 'improbable'.

It will not happen because of the huge and growing pent-up demand, coupled with the dearth of new building, the unsustainable upsurge in rents, and the gradual emergence (not too long now) of the 'clever' ones who have been squirrelling away their 15% deposits, assisted by the natural effects of normal inflation. And I haven't even mentioned the physical cost of building!

mbga9pgf

Do what I did. Save 100K in 4 1/2 years, cash in off a 30% crash and buy. Its quite simple really. Lots of talk at work incidentally about 100K retention incentives due to large numbers leaving. Thats going to take a big chunk off the mortgage I can promise you!

Pimperne1

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Do what I did. Save 100K in 4 1/2 years, cash in off a 30% crash and buy. Its quite simple really. Lots of talk at work incidentally about 100K retention incentives due to large numbers leaving. Thats going to take a big chunk off the mortgage I can promise you!

When did you buy? Where did they crash 30%? What do you work at?

mbga9pgf

Pimperne1 wrote: »

When did you buy? Where did they crash 30%? What do you work at?

North gloucestershire area...as for work, its just a rumour at the mo, but it has been done before, fairly recently. The problem is, many will not stick around as people are getting bigger bungs from the far and middle east to go work there. I work in aviation. We have recently had 20% outflows from our most experienced personel.

30 pc discount negotiated off initial advertised price, last time it sold for 15% more back in 2005. The previous owners added a 0.7 acre paddock to the place. Unfortunately they couldnt pay the bills, so we raped them for their equity on our repo offer.

Pimperne1

mbga9pgf wrote: »

North gloucestershire area...as for work, its just a rumour at the mo, but it has been done before, fairly recently. The problem is, many will not stick around as people are getting bigger bungs from the far and middle east to go work there. I work in aviation. We have recently had 20% outflows from our most experienced personel.

30 pc discount negotiated off initial advertised price, last time it sold for 15% more back in 2005. The previous owners added a 0.7 acre paddock to the place. Unfortunately they couldnt pay the bills, so we raped them for their equity on our repo offer.

Erm, so you are in a highly prized highly paid profession, you bought at much less than advertised price, the place was a repo and you had lots of money after saving for 4.5 years. Other than that you are just the average FTB?

JonnyBravo

"Ladders can be dangerous, especially housing ladders "

Absolutely. You should always have someone foot your ladder to stop nasty accidents.
Apparently there is a "glut" of tenants footing the ladder at the moment so all is good.

Alternatively do as monkey boy is indirectly suggesting and stay away from the ladder. Perhaps lean out of your parents bedroom window instead?