Rics: Prices falling.

PasturesNew

wymondham wrote: »

not sure I understand you .... gowing down = good!

Yes. Good for buyers and good for the economy as they'll have more money left over each month to spend on goods and services, creating new jobs.

Procrastinator333

geneer wrote: »

http://citywire.co.uk/money/house-prices-fall-as-property-market-hits-stalemate/a507375


Indicators not looking good.

Spin in either direction annoys me. There is negligible change over prior month in the report:http://www.headlinemoney.co.uk/Company//Media/RICS/rics_110711.pdf

3 month price balance, -28 from -27 last month.

Completed sales per surveyor, 15 from 15 last month.

New buyer enquiries, 0 from -1 last month.

Only number that really had any change, new vendor instrucitons, +1 from +14.

So in reality, there is little change. Similar numbers to these have produced stagnation and or small falls over last 12 months and it looks like that will continue. Don't really see how that is "not looking good"

Procrastinator333

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Of all the people who comment on house prices RICS are about the least knowledgeable. Land Registry must be the best (although a bit laggy), Nationwide second best (although a bit small in volume), and Halifax are just below RICS.

For whatever reason, the RICS house price balance has in the past been a very good forward indicator of the direction of price. I know how everyone feels about moneyweek, but have a look at the graph. Difficult to argue it hasn't been a good forward indicator for the last 25 years.

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/01-rics-housing-market-survey-uk-house-price-indicator-00006

Pimperne1

Procrastinator333 wrote: »

For whatever reason, the RICS house price balance has in the past been a very good forward indicator of the direction of price. I know how everyone feels about moneyweek, but have a look at the graph. Difficult to argue it hasn't been a good forward indicator for the last 25 years.

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/01-rics-housing-market-survey-uk-house-price-indicator-00006

Pretty impressive but meanwhile the reports don't always bear this out (best to look historically at this):

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/mortgages/2006/3/14/house-price-rises-exaggerated

After this period house prices continued to rise strongly for about another 2 years.

geneer

Pimperne1 wrote: »

Pretty impressive but meanwhile the reports don't always bear this out (best to look historically at this):

http://www.myfinances.co.uk/mortgages/2006/3/14/house-price-rises-exaggerated

After this period house prices continued to rise strongly for about another 2 years.

Because the banks threw away the rule books, pushing matters to the point where they bought down themselves, the global economy the finanical system, and ultimately the quality of life for pretty much everyone, bulls/bears alike.
Hard for anyone to see coming, but the bears cottoned onto this quicker than most.

Times have changed, and the bulls can no longer rely on happenstance and dumb luck to validate their spurious rationales, and discredited memes.

peakoil_2

geneer wrote: »

Because the banks threw away the rule books, pushing matters to the point where they bought down themselves, the global economy the finanical system, and ultimately the quality of life for pretty much everyone, bulls/bears alike.
Hard for anyone to see coming, but the bears cottoned onto this quicker than most.

Times have changed, and the bulls can no longer rely on happenstance and dumb luck to validate their spurious rationales, and discredited memes.

what does 'validate their spurious rationales, and discredited memes' mean?

Jegersmart

There are many threads of fail on this topic atm. Just bear in mind that any "indicator" may or may not take into account the larger economic outlook which is also open to some intepretation. Arguing subjectively on an internet website full of anonymous posters can only be driven by the need to be right (or righteous?). Debating different views is inifinitely more valuable than calling a bunch of people morons because they don't agree with your view which may or may not be hopelessly biased in your favour. At least that is my interpretation of it;)

No one knows the future but we should be open to different views and admit we are wrong and take action if necessary. The rest is just "keyboard warriors" practicing their " epic skills"...IMHO, DYOR

Good l

Jegersmart

p.s. if you are a trader or investor with success behind you it is highly unlikely that you have been a "bull" or "bear" permanently for that period. Labelling someone as one or the other seems to suggest to me some degree of naivety - or repeating words you have heard but don't really understand. Sometimes I am both depending on the markets I look at, but then this is quite normal in my experience.

geneer

peakoil wrote: »

what does 'validate their spurious rationales, and discredited memes' mean?

Example:
Bull throws his own poop at the wall, observes the pattern and says "I predict rises". Prices rise. The poop method is validated.

But, say the Bears, "that is clearly a ludicrous rationale".
The poop method is discredited.

crash123

Jegersmart wrote: »

p.s. if you are a trader or investor with success behind you it is highly unlikely that you have been a "bull" or "bear" permanently for that period. Labelling someone as one or the other seems to suggest to me some degree of naivety - or repeating words you have heard but don't really understand. Sometimes I am both depending on the markets I look at, but then this is quite normal in my experience.

I think it is hard for some to admit that they may have been wrong. Indicators can change so you have to change also. Even though I still think property is too high I know there are bargains out there, you just have to look for them.
I am interested to know what you think at the moment?