how do shares perform over long periods?

Ark_Welder

grasslands wrote: »

Forex is competition between international currencies so forex [STRIKE]will[/STRIKE] might be profitable as long as financial world is running. Due to major world events in near future Forex [STRIKE]will [/STRIKE] might be [STRIKE]good [/STRIKE]profitable for next 2 years

... assuming you have an understanding of global macro influences.

jimjames

vax2002 wrote: »

They are like gambling on horses, a very small minority can make money but on the whole the average working person ends up getting robbed, cheated and skint.

If you make the wrong decisions and totally rely on others to decide then maybe but if you have some involvement and a spread of investments then I don't see it like gambling at all.

sabretoothtigger

Investment has a positive bias. Gambling has a negative one

So my understanding says that there will be no profits for world companies for next 2 years since world people have money for food items mainly.

Walmart is not the world. It could disappear tomorrow and nobody would care except the employees for a while. They dont perform a unique service, 140 million is not alot of people and they do not really affect global trade growth

Company wise you might be right but then you mention macro economics.

Stock markets can make profits while countries and people grow poorer. Gold and silver are not as high as they could be. Zimbabwe stock market grew 400% while its people starved to death

grasslands

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Stock markets can make profits while countries and people grow poorer. Gold and silver are not as high as they could be. Zimbabwe stock market grew 400% while its people starved to death

Know your history.

The Mark plummeting from 4.2 per US Dollar to 1 MILLION?

Take a close look to how long it took for the Mark to devalue to that level as well: less than 1 year.

By 1923, the Republic claimed it could no longer afford the reparations payments required by the Versailles Treaty, and the government defaulted on some payments. In response, French and Belgian troops occupied the Ruhr region, Germany's most productive industrial region at the time, taking control of most mining and manufacturing companies in January 1923. Strikes were called, and passive resistance was encouraged. These strikes lasted eight months, further damaging the economy and increasing the expense of imports. The strike prevented goods from being produced. This infuriated the French, who began to kill and exile protestors in the region.

Since striking workers were paid benefits by the state, much additional currency was printed, fueling a period of hyperinflation. The 1920s German inflation started when Germany had no goods with which to trade. The government printed money to deal with the crisis; this allowed Germany to pay war loans and reparations with worthless marks, and helped formerly great industrialists to pay back their own loans. This also led to pay raises for workers and for businessmen who wanted to profit from it. Circulation of money rocketed, and soon the Germans discovered their money was worthless. The value of the Papiermark had declined from 4.2 per US dollar at the outbreak of World War I to 1 million per dollar by August 1923. This led to further criticism of the Republic. On 15 November 1923, a new currency, the Rentenmark, was introduced at the rate of 1 trillion (1,000,000,000,000) Papiermark for one Rentenmark, an action known as a monetary reset. At that time, one U.S. dollar was equal to 4.2 Rentenmark. Reparation payments resumed, and the Ruhr was returned to Germany under the Locarno Pact, which defined a border between Germany, France and Belgium.n payments resumed, and the Ruhr was returned to Germany under the Locarno Pact, which defined a border between Germany, France and Belgium.

Source: en.wikipedia.org

Ever wonder what's to come if we default on our loans? The world has seen this before and it ended VERY badly, to the tune of hundreds of millions of lives around the world. pay particular attention to the orange highlights.

Now... how many people see very distinct similarities to the Brackets' administration and the Fed's action and the pre-nazi german Weimar Republic?

This is what we're facing folks. It can happen to us, and you will see the end of the US Dollar, and the rise of totalitarian trends much like we saw in Germany in the 20's and 30's.

This is not a fantasy, nor theoretical. It's now only a question of WHEN it will occur, not if. And hopefully, it will happen while those who are to blame are still in power so they will catch it square in the teeth.

sabretoothtigger

Nope I dont see it as that bad. More of a cream pie in the face then ww3 I think, even I dont rate these present guys that badly.

Main thing to me is that open trade stays open no matter what. USA does do a ton of useful things, and with unique products - it might be a minority to the bloated government but its there

They have way more agricultural land then Asia does especially per capita. Also tons of natural gas, theres no need for dramatics they will survive even with a default and/or inflation. Germanys main problem was a debt burden, soon as they did get rid of that they were ok.
So if USA defaults its a positive going forward not a negative it seems most likely though that seems wrong.

Should stock markets care if government defaults, I mean if they have customers all over the world why do they care that much about one place.
The main thing is they continue to grow in any market not getting poorer, hence its about open trade imo

Ark_Welder

Wiki: The Weimer Republic to see the article in full context

Reaper

grasslands wrote: »

Ever wonder what's to come if we default on our loans? The world has seen this before and it ended VERY badly, to the tune of hundreds of millions of lives around the world.

Iceland defaulted on its loans. No Nazi movement apeared, hundreds of millions did not die, hyper-inflation did not happen. Recently their government auctioned debt for the first time since the crisis offering less than 5% interest and the issue was twice over-subscribed by keen investors. Compare that to the 30% yield the market wants before it is willing to buy Greek government debt.

We face tough times ahead but the end of the world is not nigh.

StevieJ

Reaper wrote: »

We face tough times ahead but the end of the world is not nigh.

It's as nigh as you can get

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/notw/public/home/

Money_Saving_Dude

pqrdef wrote: »

The point of volatile assets is that you can potentially make money by trading on the cycles.

But the question is whether you make money if you don't. "Average" implies that you don't take your profits, you just sit on the shares while they slide right back down.

This is why you should periodically rebalance your portfolio -- so you can consolidate the profits and move some of your investment into those assets that may shine in the future (contrarian investment).