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Inflation
Comments
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Well the VAT rate effect falling out is a mathematical certainty.I reckon if RPI is under 3% by then, inflation and savings rates will be the least of our (and the World's) problems.
Plunge in corn prices
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13985428
Oil prices falling
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13923695
Consensus forecasts for 2011 are
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/201106forecomp.pdf
CPI: 4.3
RPI: 5.2
Consensus forecasts for 2012 are
CPI: 2.3
RPI: 3.4
So whilst we can never be sure, I'd say falling CPI & RPI is highly likely and the most likely scenario.
That's exactly why the BOE aren't raising interest rates when inflation is high which seems perverse. It's because they are looking ahead to what is coming.0 -
Does anybody have any experience with Money Market accounts through First Direct/HSBC. They offer a fixed rate of interest as well. I'm not sure how high though.
Money market funds (which might differ from products offered by banks in ways of which I'm unaware) have the aim of never making a loss, and rarely make a gain. They're probably not going to help you keep pace with inflation.0 -
no wayyy, well I think ECB rates will move rates very soon and I think this will add to pressure on the BOE, but then if they leave it too long raising rates in Autumn winter with xmas around the corner isnt going to be popular. Maybe Q1 2012Acutally the markets are pricing in the next move for July 2012, although the forecasts do move around quite a bit.
But then what will the affect be on euro debt etc with a movement of rates ?0 -
The ECB doesn't have a house price crash to worry about. Because it doesn't worry about the consequences of its actions on the economies of member states.no wayyy, well I think ECB rates will move rates very soon
The BoE just daren't. 1/8 of Lloyds's mortgage book is in negative equity, and the same again is at more than 90% of the (probably optimistic) property value."It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis0 -
no wayyy
Well markets and consensus forecasts can be wrong, but I think it's worth taking on board what they are saying.
At the moment think rates are going to stay low for a long time, but I recognise things can change and they can change quickly too.0 -
Sceptic001 wrote: »They are the only savings product currently available that will protect the value of a taxpayer's savings (plus a bit more) against inflation (if held for more than a year).
Look here http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/inflation-linked-savings
or there are numerous threads on this forum - search for ILSC
How do you know that? unless you know what the RPI will be in 12 months time
'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
You don't have to know what RPI will be in 12 months. You will get RPI plus a bit.0
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Well markets and consensus forecasts can be wrong, but I think it's worth taking on board what they are saying.
At the moment think rates are going to stay low for a long time, but I recognise things can change and they can change quickly too.
I thought it was going the other way and that inflation will decrease, hence why HMG have released the ILSC's, they know inflation is going to plummit.
As inflation drops, interest rates will rise. If I had a mortgage I would certainly be looking at fixing my rate now before they do go back up next year.
It has to eventually turn around in favour of savers sometime, everything moves in cycles. after all savers have been losing money in their losing accounts for sometime now with low interest rates.0 -
"hence why HMG have released the ILSC's, they know inflation is going to plummit." That makes no sense, it's much too cheap to get out of an ILSC.Free the dunston one next time too.0
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Acutally the markets are pricing in the next move for July 2012, although the forecasts do move around quite a bit.
End of this year I reckon and it'll trail actual inflation rates anyway
They wont do anything drastic till: they have to and its too late
Rather then examine UK stats you should just consider the USA political calendar. Economics has now become opinion based on the ego of those who control central banks which makes it politics not numbers based0
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