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Staying in the markets during an recession?
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There are certain points where it is reasonably clear that investing in the market is good value. One of the main indicators is total pessimism so while all around are saying how bad things are is normally a good time to pile in.
March 2009 was one of those times. So although you may not be able to time the in & outs of the markets if you have cash available it can be worth investing that when events such as that happen.Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.0 -
Cash is king yea but Im also considering gold as such. Im hoping I'd have a good reason to sell it at such a low like Jim says.
Im not that biased but I dont really ever see Gold dipping down like it used to, bad news or good it just never seems to fall alot like it did. But still would like a good reason to sell it, its better then cash right now (which shows our world is upside down)0 -
There are certain points where it is reasonably clear that investing in the market is good value. One of the main indicators is total pessimism so while all around are saying how bad things are is normally a good time to pile in.
A couple of weeks later some of the analysts interviewed said it was time to start dipping a toe back in the water.... others were saying Dow will fall to 3,0000 -
My first real investment was £1k in Bank of Ireland when it was at about 70p in October last year. I'd been watching it for months and had made a fortune on it in a practice account. There were even some 'respectable' articles knocking around online talking about how much of a bargain it looked. So I took the plunge quietly confident of my first multi-bagger. Less than a year later... 14p.
Lesson learned - even the experts don't know which way things are going to go and even if they do, they're not going to tell me. Rule No 1: Never lose money. Rule No 2: Don't forget No 1.
Although, I have to be honest, I am sorely tempted to add to my position at 14p....
Banking shares have been an interesting ride over the last few years. I bought Barclays at the height of the financial crisis for something like 80p. I thought that they were a fundamentally solid bank, not a basketcase like some others (HBOS etc) and were just being dragged down by the market. I sold last year at 360p. I more than quadrupled my money.
Generally I see a recession as a buying opportunity. It's a time to go for solid, established, companies who are well able to ride out the troubles. I'm not so interested in trying to spot the startup which will have a market breakthrough.
But we all make mistakes - and that's half the fun of the stock market. My Number 1 rule for shares is don't invest what you cannot afford to lose0 -
sabretoothtigger wrote: »
Lloyds weakness or main point is its mostly UK based. Icing on the cake is Ireland debt also but its mostly a UK trade and the other banks arent so much.
I think Lloyds are too cheap now, they can afford to pay 4p div for last two years but have been banned from doing so. I think its fair to say that potential is within the price, making them even cheaper then they appear
My target is over 60p for them, best case would be 80 say
past few days, this has shot down.
lowest point was 20p around march 2009.
break even is 63p for the government.
what do you think wednesday's price will be?
i'm at a loss at the moment, but looking long term (hopefully not 5 years!). i do sometimes wonder whether i should pull out this share.0 -
I cant predict one day or even estimate without a lot of trying to factor probabilities
Im just saying long term worth 1 to 5 yr, I think I like the new guys attitude, see what he actually does though.
Price isnt always accurate and they always go over the top either way
I commented the other week 45 was a reasonable target, once it breaks certain levels it tends to stay weak till someone big thinks its a bargain
20 is right, I bought a couple at that level. On first listing lloyds dealt them for freeMy last big sale was at 62p just after their last big rights issue. I think anywhere below 60 is ok value but below that because rights involves so many people it performs like a 'damaged' share
^^ That bottom bit is trying to exaggerate the wild swings. Red is too many people confident and if it touches bottom overly negative
My simple point would be if you see a company return to Spring 2009 pricing think hard of if this company deserves a disaster rating or not because you have a reasonable guide from that time. Some of course will go broke, i dont know who0 -
sabretoothtigger wrote: »I cant predict one day or even estimate without a lot of trying to factor probabilities
Im just saying long term worth 1 to 5 yr, I think I like the new guys attitude, see what he actually does though.
Price isnt always accurate and they always go over the top either way
I commented the other week 45 was a reasonable target, once it breaks certain levels it tends to stay weak till someone big thinks its a bargain
20 is right, I bought a couple at that level. On first listing lloyds dealt them for freeMy last big sale was at 62p just after their last big rights issue. I think anywhere below 60 is ok value but below that because rights involves so many people it performs like a 'damaged' share
^^ That bottom bit is trying to exaggerate the wild swings. Red is too many people confident and if it touches bottom overly negative
My simple point would be if you see a company return to Spring 2009 pricing think hard of if this company deserves a disaster rating or not because you have a reasonable guide from that time. Some of course will go broke, i dont know who
I think lloyds will trickle down more, SBT I think there is alot more bad news on the horizon, maionly from US economy and euro debt plus throw in some euro (!!!!!!s) bank regulation and theres way too much bad news on the horizon compared to good news.
Im liking the look of lloyds but only sub 40p sorry guys0
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