'Is it time to teach uncertainty in schools?' blog discussion

Former_MSE_Helen

This is the discussion to link on the back of Martin's blog. Please read the blog first, as this discussion follows it.

Read Martin's "Is it time to teach uncertainty in schools?" Blog.

Please click 'post reply' to discuss below.

2sides2everystory

The Government is looking to try and boost our happiness, perhaps ensuring the understanding of uncertainty would contribute to that.

Be afraid ... be very afraid :eek:

Jacka87

I have studied engineering at university and I am now hazy as to when I was taought uncertainty, ie at school or at uni, however the point is education at somepoint does teach it.

the problem is its not anything to do with what you are asking. Take your example of god debt bad debt, as you said its a risk analasis and then making a decision. Its about uncertainty of the future.

However uncertainty as tought at to me was more to do with accuracy. ie I make awidget that, according to the quality department, you can use 100 times before it fails. This however is not the case! If I see 100 of them 90 might fail at 100 uses whislt 4 fail at 99, 4 at 101, one at 98 and one at 102. ie their is a tolerance on the answer. In this case the tolerance would be plus or minus 2. or a 2% tolerance.

Sorry if this answer is a bit pedantic, but thought the term uncertainty was misleading from a mathamatical point of view, well in my opinion anyway.

Moneyadviceteam

I think that teaching students and young people about uncertainty in life is essential for their development and progression towards independence.

During March and April 2011, I went into a local college to offer money advice to 16-18 year old students. We did a multiple choice quiz with seemingly straightforward questions and answers. But as you say there are also the grey areas which became apparent when we discussed the answers. These provoked the best sort of discussion with the encouragement that "if in doubt ask", "if you are not sure, find out first". These are very important lessons in life as no-one has all the answers.

I also tell my children the same thing as they are growing up. There are plenty of individuals and companies who make a profit and rely on people not asking about things they are uncertain about.

From a personal point of view you can only make a decision based on what you believe is right at the time and for the best reasons. If these don't work out then you shouldn't blame yourself. If they do then all is good, but even then we could do with reminding ourselves every now and then that there is an element of luck in any decision we make.

Meepster

Is it time to teach uncertainty in schools?

Yes, it's a great idea.

Oh wait, no, I don't think it's such a good thing actually.

*sigh* if only I could make my mind up...

SJ_Jones

I've had to do something which has split my family as to whether they think it's a good idea...

After being made redundant 2 years ago, I took a job on a lower salary, 2 years on, no pay rise (not even inflation), so I am starting to struggle. I borrowed money to enrol on a part-time evening course, to get a professional qualification in what I am doing. I see this as an investment in my future; some of my family agree, some see it as unnecessary expenditure when I'm struggling, and pushing me further into debt.

The light at the end of the tunnel; as soon as it appeared on my CV that I'm starting this course, I've had more interest from recruitment consultants & potential employers...

Fingers crossed!

MSE_Martin

SJ_Jones wrote: »

I've had to do something which has split my family as to whether they think it's a good idea...

After being made redundant 2 years ago, I took a job on a lower salary, 2 years on, no pay rise (not even inflation), so I am starting to struggle. I borrowed money to enrol on a part-time evening course, to get a professional qualification in what I am doing. I see this as an investment in my future; some of my family agree, some see it as unnecessary expenditure when I'm struggling, and pushing me further into debt.

The light at the end of the tunnel; as soon as it appeared on my CV that I'm starting this course, I've had more interest from recruitment consultants & potential employers...
Fingers crossed!

In my early 20s I worked in the high paid world of financial public relations. It didn't feel right for me, and i wanted to leave and go study to be a journalist. I'd been told I could be the youngest partner the firm ever had and my salary was on the rise.

I took the decision to leave before it got so high I couldn't afford to leave. My family questioned it "why you leaving such a good job to be a student". Well I did it, and became a journalist, normally not that high paid and industry, and ended up being one of the few whom it works very well for.

Of course it coudl've all gone wrong (there was a day in 2003 where I told my father I was giving it two months then giving up the whole thing as I had so little work, two days later I got my first regular gig at This Morning and then it all began). Yet no one could've told me, sometimes you have to grasp the uncertainty and hope.

Yet I'd always made sure I had enough money to live on to give me the freedom to make such decisions.

RAS

I come at this slightly differently. I was talking with an oncologist I know about survival rates and pointed whilst for the population the 5 year survival rate might be 75 percent, for each person the survival rate is 1 or zero. For every hundred patients, around about 75 will survive and around about 25 will die in that timeframe. She was amazed to find someone not in the profession who understood the difference. The reason this concerns me is that people really cannot get their heads round it if their family member is one of the 25 who die, they feel cheated because the survival rate is 75% and someone must have done something wrong if their Jonny or Janey did not make it.

Similarly in things like the stock market; some people make spectacular amounts of money but that money has to come from somewhere; which means other lose money. All to often people want to join the upside but do not want to accept the risks of the downside.

bitemebankers

Interesting, thought-provoking article.

Overall, I agree, but I think it depends on the age of the kids. For younger children, I think certainty is probably essential. But for older children, certainly in their later teens, would agree that they should be taught that uncertainty rules in the real world.

And I've long thought that basic courses on statistics and probability should be *mandatory* in all schools, alongside the 'three Rs'. If at least a scant majority of the general public were better able to interpret the 'facts' and figures thrown at them by politicians, marketing copywriters and the media, the world would be a very different place. I think it would make the world genuinely more democratic.

rdr

People's inability to cope with uncertainty leads them to believe in allsorts of claptrap: astrollogy, numerology etc.
One of the hard things about being an aethesit bringing up kids is not having "god's will" to fall back on when discussing uncerainty. Sometimes you just have to say - it is not possible to know what will happen and just look at the possibilities and try to ensure you maximise the chances of the upside.

MSE_Martin

One of my favourite phrases relating to all this is "don't confuse correlation with causation".