NI house prices now down 42% from peak

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Personally, I believe we have just delayed the inevitable. May be delayed a few years. may be delayed a decade. But what cannot be argued is that it's been delayed.

Oh it can be argued, in fact, I'm about to do exactly that.

The various policy responses, low rates, QE, help for homeowners, etc, have not "delayed the inevitable"....

They've averted what could have been an economic disaster, and we're all better off because of it.

The reality is that these policy responses are just like putting a cast on a broken leg. You put it on, and you can hobble along for a while. Eventually, the leg underneath the cast heals and you can walk again, and then run. But it takes a long time, and it's painful and hard work in the meanwhile.

The economy is in much the same position.

While the rest of the world recovers and starts building again, the UK will still be applying sticky plasters to their wounds, desperately trying to run before they can even hobble.
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Arguing that if you took the cast off today, we'd fall over, is absolutely correct. But arguing that the leg will never heal unless you take the cast off and amputate it is absolutely incorrect. But that's effectively what the bears are saying. That the situation is hopeless, and a simple leg fracture must result in amputation because we can't walk on it now. Completely ignoring the fact that the leg is healing underneath the cast..... So while it will take a long time of hobbling, eventually the cast will come off, we'll be walking, and then running.

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

House prices up here are rising anyway and selling for more than they did in 2007 so it makes little difference to me.

As for rates, we're now so far ahead financially thanks to the last few years of once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for mortgage holders, I can't really complain if rates rise.

So no, it makes little difference to me personally.

What matters far more is the wider economy.....

No rational person wants to see a return to recession, rising unemployment, increased business failures, insolvencies, etc. And raising rates prematurely would do exactly that.

In summary...... "I'm OK, and I'd like things to continue as they are (but I'm only thinking of the economy, of course)".

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh it can be argued, in fact, I'm about to do exactly that.

The various policy responses, low rates, QE, help for homeowners, etc, have not "delayed the inevitable"....

They've averted what could have been an economic disaster, and we're all better off because of it.

The reality is that these policy responses are just like putting a cast on a broken leg. You put it on, and you can hobble along for a while. Eventually, the leg underneath the cast heals and you can walk again, and then run. But it takes a long time, and it's painful and hard work in the meanwhile.

The economy is in much the same position.

I honestly cannot be bothered to argue with that. Theres so much wrong with it, I honestly don't know where to start, and you have trumped me in the discussion with that little lot.

Your analogy of the cast on the leg.....thats a good analogy. Problem being, we have no way of running. Entire generations locked out. Entire generations locked in because of the generations below having to pay more and more to live and educate themselves. Were screwed.

The leg isn't healing Hamish. That's the point. Were 3 years on, and not really any further forward. We just have MORE people in casts and MORE debts.

geneer

So NI had massive over building, a house price bubble and a house price crash.

Does rather shine a light on Hamishes "easy money had nothing to do with it" bollix.

Graham_Devon

geneer wrote: »

So NI had massive over building, a house price bubble and a house price crash.

Does rather shine a light on Hamishes "easy money had nothing to do with it" bollix.

It's all about supply and demand. It's all there is.

Unless supply outstrips demand and house prices still rise (Northern Ireland, US).

THEN, it doesn't matter, house prices are up and the supply and demand stuff goes out of the window as he's simply not interested as house prices are rising.

But as soon as they fall "supply and demand, supply and demand, supply and demand is all there is.....that is all.....end of.....until I do a comparison with somewhere else....then there are other factors".