NI house prices now down 42% from peak

doire_2

Heyman wrote: »

Percentage drop from peak for NI Houses: 42%.

Percentage of people from here who will take advantage of this: 0%.

Thats right no-one from NI posts on this forum

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

doire wrote: »

2005 levels and still falling

OK then, 2005 levels.

Which means prices in Northern Ireland almost doubled between 2005 and 2007.

Prices in the mainland UK rose by around a quarter of that level in the same time frame.

The difference is clear.

NI had a big influx of speculative activity from the ROI, with no fundamental basis to sustain that level of price rises. The UK had nowhere near that level of speculative activity, nor that level of price rises, and has a genuine supply shortage which is the fundamental reason for UK prices being where they are.

So when the financial system crashed, both NI and ROI prices dropped by 40% plus, and are still falling. Whereas mainland UK prices are now 11% below peak, and are pretty much stagnating.

Worth noting that Northern Ireland has exactly the same low interest rates as the mainland UK, so clearly low base rates are not enough to prop up a market that was in a genuine speculative bubble. As pretty much everyone agrees the Northern Ireland market was.

Of course, the fact that the bears on here and elsewhere repeatedly fail to grasp, is that if Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK and subject to UK financial regulations, UK base rates, etc, has fallen by 42% so far and is still falling, then it obviously can't be those same base rates etc propping up the housing market on the mainland.....

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

OK then, 2005 levels.

Which means prices in Northern Ireland almost doubled between 2005 and 2007.

Prices in the mainland UK rose by around a quarter of that level in the same time frame.

The difference is clear.

NI had a big influx of speculative activity from the ROI, with no fundamental basis to sustain that level of price rises. The UK had nowhere near that level of speculative activity, nor that level of price rises, and has a genuine supply shortage which is the fundamental reason for UK prices being where they are.

So when the financial system crashed, both NI and ROI prices dropped by 40% plus, and are still falling. Whereas mainland UK prices are now 11% below peak, and are pretty much stagnating.

Worth noting that Northern Ireland has exactly the same low interest rates as the mainland UK, so clearly low base rates are not enough to prop up a market that was in a genuine speculative bubble. As pretty much everyone agrees the Northern Ireland market was.

Of course, the fact that the bears on here and elsewhere repeatedly fail to grasp, is that if Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK and subject to UK financial regulations, UK base rates, etc, has fallen by 42% so far and is still falling, then it obviously can't be those same base rates etc propping up the housing market on the mainland.....

Stop soiling yourself at the thought of rates rising then.

That is, if you truly believe yourself.

I don't believe you do though, as you go so far to seperate the differences between the mainland and NI when it comes to falling prices....then end it all by comparing NI and the mainland when it comes to rates.

You can't have it both ways.

debtistheft

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Stop soiling yourself at the thought of rates rising then.

That is, if you truly believe yourself.

I don't believe you do though, as you go so far to seperate the differences between the mainland and NI when it comes to falling prices....then end it all by comparing NI and the mainland when it comes to rates.

You can't have it both ways.

He is showing classical signs of fear brought on by throwing himself knowingly into the pool of debt. It is one thing to throw himself into that pool, but to enourage others into its icy depths is pure wickedness. He will get his punishment soon when the lord shall raiseth the rates.

"The wicked borroweth, and payeth not again: but the righteous sheweth mercy, and giveth." Psalm 37:21

"Then [Jesus] said to them, 'Watch out! Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; a man's life does not consist in the abundance of his possessions.'" Luke 12:15

Graham_Devon

Sorry debt, can't take you seriously with all the bible claptrap.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Stop soiling yourself at the thought of rates rising then.

That is, if you truly believe yourself.

Nobody is soiling themselves at the thought of rate rises.

Just pointing out it would be the wrong thing to do for the economy.

I want to see a prosperous Britain, with lower unemployment, a better economy, and a strengthening recovery.

We won't get that if we raise rates prematurely.

I don't believe you do though, as you go so far to seperate the differences between the mainland and NI when it comes to falling prices....then end it all by comparing NI and the mainland when it comes to rates.

You can't have it both ways.

You repeatedly say the mainland UK housing market is only kept afloat by low interest rates and other government financial policies around supporting banks and house prices.

And at the same time, you're pointing out huge 42% falls in Northern Ireland, a part of the UK with EXACTLY THE SAME interest rates and government financial policies supporting banks and house prices.

You can't have it both ways Graham.....

Interest rates are the same in both. So it can't be that interest rates are propping up the market in one and not the other. There has to be another difference.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You repeatedly say the mainland UK housing market is only kept afloat by low interest rates and other government financial policies around supporting banks and house prices.

And at the same time, you're pointing out huge 42% falls in Northern Ireland, a part of the UK with EXACTLY THE SAME interest rates and government financial policies supporting banks and house prices.

You can't have it both ways Graham.....

I'm not having it both ways.

You go to lengths to explain why NI house prices have fallen as far as they have. You go to lengths to seperate the mainland and the NI in this regard.

After all that, you turn around and compare NI and the mainland solely on interest rates.

It's beyond hypocritical. You either compare them on the same level and ignore the differences (as you have with your interest rate comparison) or compare them stating the differences (as you do when it comes to falling prices).

All I'm doing is picking you up on your inconsistences. I haven't said anything on this thread to "have it both ways".

chucky

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You repeatedly say the mainland UK housing market is only kept afloat by low interest rates and other government financial policies around supporting banks and house prices.

And at the same time, you're pointing out huge 42% falls in Northern Ireland, a part of the UK with EXACTLY THE SAME interest rates and government financial policies supporting banks and house prices.

i'd like him to explain how house prices can rise by 50% in one area and rise by less in others when exactly the same lenders are offering the exactly the same rates in both places...

i bet he can't without doing the usual derailing and taking the thread on a tangent...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm not having it both ways.

No, you're not.

You're trying to, and failing badly.

You go to lengths to explain why NI house prices have fallen as far as they have.

My post on the subject took about 20 seconds of my life. Hardly going to "great lengths"....

All I'm doing is picking you up on your inconsistences.

Mate, you couldn't pick up a penguin. :rotfl:

Now stop with the ankle biting and have a think about it.....

If base rates are the same in both, why have prices fallen so much more in NI than the mainland UK?

Obviously it ain't the base rates.....

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If base rates are the same in both, why have prices fallen so much more in NI than the mainland UK?

Obviously it ain't the base rates.....

Many reasons. Which was the whole point of what I said.

Now, Hamish, are you telling me, higher base rates, of say 4% wouldn't see house prices fall?

Will you go on record and state that?