Fixed prices really worth it?

grahamc2003

macman wrote: »

Historical data would not be any reliable indication of future trends in today's energy market.

Just what I was going to post!

You only know whether any fixed price deal is good or not after the event. You just have to guess what will happen in the future to decide whether any particular fixed price deal is worth it, and then hope your guesses work out. I'd say the pricing of fixed price deals are pretty marginal and reflect the suppliers views (or at least those fininacing the deal if not the supplier) who will basically be betting in the opposite direction to those who fix.

On another thread, someone had some figures on what they were paying and a fixed price deal they had the option of, and with those, it's easy to project forward for different scenarios. It worked out that the breakeven was an 8%pa rise in the standrd rate over the 3 year fix - less than that, you'd lose out, greater than 8% you'd gain. This was last week - and I expect that particular fixed price deal has been pulled(surely everyone would jump at it today after the recent massive rise announced).

My personal expectations are for electricity to rise at least 15%pa over the next few years, but no idea about gas.

samtheman1k

Prices could always go down meaning a fixed price would be a very bad deal!