How do you know when its a crash?

purch

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not going to pretend to understand it all.

Makes a nice change

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Not going to pretend to understand it all.

Silver crashed.

They said it wouldn't, but it did.

If you bought physical silver from a UK dealer last week, and wanted to sell it back today, you'd be sitting on the best part of a 50% loss. Which qualifies as a crash in anyones books.

Pretty easy to understand really.

Silver is a volatile speculative commodity just like any other. When it crashes, it can crash with lightning speed. Not the long slow drawn out crashes you get with housing, of a percent or so a month.

Just go away on a long weekend, and BANG, half your wealth is gone by Tuesday. Forget selling it on ebay, it's halved in value by the time your auction ends.

No doubt why Martin banned all the silver rampers trying to portray it as "the only real money", or a "true store of wealth" or any of the other rubbish they spewed.

It may recover from here temporarily, it may crash further right away, but at the end of the day it's a speculative commodity that happens to be in a monster bubble. Nothing more, nothing less.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Silver crashed.

They said it wouldn't, but it did.

If you bought physical silver from a UK dealer last week, and wanted to sell it back today, you'd be sitting on the best part of a 50% loss. Which qualifies as a crash in anyones books.

Pretty easy to understand really.

Wasn't talking about islver secifically. Was talking about the massive sell off in junior aim shares.

Loopgames

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Silver crashed.

They said it wouldn't, but it did.

If you bought physical silver from a UK dealer last week, and wanted to sell it back today, you'd be sitting on the best part of a 50% loss. Which qualifies as a crash in anyones books.

Pretty easy to understand really.

Silver is a volatile speculative commodity just like any other. When it crashes, it can crash with lightning speed. Not the long slow drawn out crashes you get with housing, of a percent or so a month.

Just go away on a long weekend, and BANG, half your wealth is gone by Tuesday. Forget selling it on ebay, it's halved in value by the time your auction ends.

No doubt why Martin banned all the silver rampers trying to portray it as "the only real money", or a "true store of wealth" or any of the other rubbish they spewed.

It may recover from here temporarily, it may crash further right away, but at the end of the day it's a speculative commodity that happens to be in a monster bubble. Nothing more, nothing less.

According to your logic it crashed in 2008 too by well over 70 percent...lol and still it climbed. Love the analysis though thanks:D

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Loopgames wrote: »

According to your logic it crashed in 2008 too by well over 70 percent...lol and still it climbed. Love the analysis though thanks:D

Smell the fear.....

Silver has been by far the biggest riser this year, soaring by 57% in the year to Monday morning, as investors piled into so-called exchange traded funds (ETFs). However, amid growing concerns that the silver rally could be particularly overdone, New York's Comex exchange have almost doubled the amount of cash that must be deposited when borrowing from brokers to trade silver futures to $21,600 in the past fortnight. This has prompted an exodus from silver that analysts fear could be repeated, to a lesser extent, in other commodities, which have become increasingly popular among speculators in the face of low interest rates and high inflation.

IronWolf

Still dropping, at $35 now.

Thats almost 30% down from peak price

Loopgames

This is fun lol...have subscribed to this thread and look forward to see what you guys will be saying as time goes by.

It's amazing how people have forgotten that the same thing happens at least once or twice every year in the silver market:

3 Jan 20110 to 28 Jan 2011 ---> down by 13%
9 Nov 2010 to 17 Nov 2010 ---> down by 11.7%
11 Jan 2010 to 8 Feb 2010 ---> down by 19.6%
2 Dec 2009 to 30 Dec 2009 ----> down by 11.7%
3 Jul 2009 to 13 Jul 2009 ---> down by 21.9%
24 Feb 2009 to 17 Apr 2009 ----> down by 16.7%
15 Jul 2008 to 24 Oct 2008 ---> down a whopping 53.9%
17 Mar 2008 to 2 May 2008 ----> down by 22.6%
12 May 2006 to 14 Jun 2006 ----> down by 34.9%
2 Dec 2004 to 4 Jan 2005 ----> down by 20.3%
2 Apr 2004 to 10 May 2004 ---> down by 33.7%
5 Feb 2003 to 3 Apr 2003 ----> down by 11.3%
16 Jul 2002 to 11 Oct 2002 ----> down by 15.7%
10 Jan 2002 to 29 Nov 2002 ----> down by 12.6%
5 Oct 2001 to 21 Nov 2001 ---> down 12.4%


Yet the price has picked up each time now it stands at over 3 times the lowest value it reached in 2008 - you would still be able to buy 3 houses now lol!!!
Sorry couldn't help throw that one in

I will be adding the latest fall to a collection of falls as part and parcel of this silver BULL market. It's not over according to my bias portfolio.

purch

Thats almost 30% down from peak price

In truth, there is still room for more, without breaking the secular uptrend.

This certainly shows the dangers of trading things you don't fully understand on margin, and relying on internet bloggers for your opinions.

IronWolf

All those falls in percentage terms makes it look bigger than it actually was though. Take the 21.9% fall in July 2009.

Silver went from about $16 to $12, thats a $4 drop.

In the last week silver has fallen $14, its a clear indication that the price is highly speculative. And hasnt shown signs of slowing, its blowing through stop losses now, theres a real danger that panic will set in and thats when the price will really start to tank.

As such I make no predictions about the future price, only that long term Im almost certain you wont make money buying silver.

Im not opposed to buying silver at all, in fact if the price dropped to $3 an ounce (not likely but you never know) Id consider buying.

Loopgames

A percentage is used to give you a better picture of how much it has fallen in relation to another period. Gold is falling too but in percentage terms it's nothing like silver in the last week yet the falls are over $40-60..that's a big drop compared to silver drop yet not so if you look at it in relation to the price it's dropped from.

As silver prices increases then expect the drops to be great in absolute terms.

It's like saying my house has increased/decreased in value - it matters nought until you actually sell it. So silver may always make you money just like property - depends when and if you ever sell.