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Debate House Prices


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Rents Continue Rising

11011131516

Comments

  • Well, technically, if your rent was assessed on March 30th 2011, and next assessed on March 30th 2012, you'd have 21 months, not 19 months. (I take it simple addition isn't your strong point then?)

    Which is far more consistent with my "phased in over 2 years" comment, than your "it will take just ONE year for ALL existing claims to have the new rates applied." Which was just, well, spectacularly wrong.

    Anyway, lets move on.

    See my edit prior to this reply being posted.

    *sigh*

    So much ignorance, such little time.....

    The numbers of people chasing stock at the high end of the market, ie, the 50th percentile to the 100th percentile, will remain unchanged.

    The number of people chasing stock between the 1st percentile and the 30th percentile will increase dramatically. There aren't enough houses in this percentile range, so prices will inevitably increase rapidly.

    The current 30th percentile, will likely then become the new 1st percentile quite quickly. And the new 30th percentile will be close to where the old 50th percentile was.

    So, you seem to be relying on the percentage of people chasing the properties at 30th percentile and below to increase, while the percentage of those chasing the above 30th percentile properties remains unchanged. An interesting theory. The only slight flaw I can see is that it depends on there being a higher overall percentage of renters than the 100% total. Are you relying on a significant number renting twice? How likely is that?
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    So, you seem to be relying on the percentage of people chasing the properties at 30th percentile and below to increase,

    It will, and this will drive up rents.
    while the percentage of those chasing the above 30th percentile properties remains unchanged.

    No, the percentage above the 50th percentile will remain unchanged.

    From the 30th to 50th will reduce, and from the 1st to 30th will increase.

    But the 30th percentile is calculated based on the price gap between 1st and 100th percentile.

    If the 1st percentile rises (as it must, with a massive influx of people chasing the cheapest places) then the 30th percentile will rise also.

    This has been explained clearly.
    An interesting theory. The only slight flaw I can see is that it depends on there being a higher overall percentage of renters than the 100% total. Are you relying on a significant number renting twice? How likely is that?

    Oh, how I miss the rolleyes smiley.....

    Answer this simple question.

    If the cheapest flat available is £100 a week..... And the 30th percentile is £120 a week......

    What happens to the 30th percentile when the cheapest flat available rises to £120 a week?
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Answer this simple question.

    If the cheapest flat available is £100 a week..... And the 30th percentile is £120 a week......

    What happens to the 30th percentile when the cheapest flat available rises to £120 a week?

    On it's own, an increase of the rental of the cheapest flat to £120 will have NO impact on the 30th percentile rate.

    Again, I see percentiles are proving a bit difficult for you to understand.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    On it's own, an increase of the rental of the cheapest flat to £120 will have NO impact on the 30th percentile rate.

    Again, I see percentiles are proving a bit difficult for you to understand.

    Don't be such a nob.

    It the first percentile is now where the 30th percentile used to be then....
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Hamish, you seem to be getting pretty strong with the insults of late. Don't go down that path old boy. If theres a disagreement, theres a disagreement. No one is going to change your mind, and vice versa. No need to be telling more and more people they are nobs, thick, morons etc.
  • Don't be such a nob.

    It the first percentile is now where the 30th percentile used to be then....

    The first percentile doesn't matter. It's where the 30th percentile is that makes the difference. The entire bottom 30% of the market could be at the same rate as the 30th percentile and it would make not one jot of difference. I take it you understand the difference between "percentile" and "percentage"? I only ask as you seem to be getting both confused and hostile. A dangerous combination.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    edited 17 April 2011 at 4:01PM
    The first percentile doesn't matter. It's where the 30th percentile is that makes the difference. The entire bottom 30% of the market could be at the same rate as the 30th percentile and it would make not one jot of difference. I take it you understand the difference between "percentile" and "percentage"? I only ask as you seem to be getting both confused and hostile. A dangerous combination.

    You really do need to explain that to the government then.....

    Because it appears they're calculating it all wrong.
    Local Housing Allowance rates will reduce to a lower amount so that about 3 in 10 properties for rent in the area should be affordable to people on Housing Benefit rather than 5 in 10 properties as now. The new rates will be at what is known as the 30th Percentile.
    http://www.voa.gov.uk/lhadirect/documents/lha_percentile_rates_feb_2011.html

    Another instance of what the government says will happen, and what you think will happen, being two completely different things.

    You really haven't done much research on this, have you?
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • DervProf
    DervProf Posts: 4,035 Forumite
    Don't go down that path old boy. If theres a disagreement, theres a disagreement. No one is going to change your mind, and vice versa.

    I disagree !

    Although it is highly improbable that anyone will change Hamish's mind, I'm sure that Hamish will have changed some people's minds on some matters.
    30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.
  • You really do need to explain that to the government then.....

    Because it appears they're calculating it all wrong.

    http://www.voa.gov.uk/lhadirect/documents/lha_percentile_rates_feb_2011.html

    Another instance of what the government says will happen, and what you think will happen, being two completely different things.

    You really haven't done much research on this, have you?

    Well, no. It's another example of your rather tenuous understanding of basic maths. Nothing I've said contradicts the statement you quoted. You, on the other hand, seem to be the one who is at odds with the governments intention as you seem to be the one insisting that rents will rise regardless of peoples ability to pay them. Maybe I will have to get the crayons out after all.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Well, no. It's another example of your rather tenuous understanding of basic maths.

    Coming from someone that couldn't add 12 and 9.....

    Alrighty then.

    Nothing I've said contradicts the statement you quoted. You, on the other hand, seem to be the one who is at odds with the governments intention as you seem to be the one insisting that rents will rise regardless of peoples ability to pay them. Maybe I will have to get the crayons out after all.

    Seriously.....

    What on earth do you think will happen to rents at the bottom end when a group of people that used to have access to 50% of houses on the market, now only has access to 30%?

    As per the government quote:
    about 3 in 10 properties for rent in the area should be affordable to people on Housing Benefit rather than 5 in 10 properties as now

    Are you seriously trying to tell me that rents in that bottom 30% will not rise?
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
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