anyone else want a CRASH...?

roswell

Gravity and economic cycles are very closely linked.

In reallity it would probably take a 2 % drop nation wide for the mass drop to start due to over reaction, after all isnt that what happens with everything... You must have X so everyone buys X, Someone says X is worth nothing so everyone panics and the prices fall.

How do Flat screen TV`s fall in price every month ?? if there is so much demand for them wouldnt prices raise ?? its more likely the factorys are putting out 1000`s of units a day but only a handfull are being sold, hence stock piles up.

As soon as everyone realises that
1) there isnt a shortage of housing stock the demand will fall, and with low demand will come low prices,
2) There doesnt seem to be any data that shows how many new homeless people there are due to the fact they cant buy a house (it doesnt happen) people become homeless due to there house`s being repossesed not due to raising prices.

lynzpower

As soon as everyone realises that
1) there isnt a shortage of housing stock the demand will fall, and with low demand will come low prices,
2) There doesnt seem to be any data that shows how many new homeless people there are due to the fact they cant buy a house (it doesnt happen) people become homeless due to there house`s being repossesed not due to raising prices.

Is there enough housing for all? At the right price and the right size & the right areas?

Id say no, there isnt. those at the bottom end of the ladder, there is massive amount of homelessness due to rising rents in london - HB wont pay it, so the LL evicts to get professional tenants in.



the amount of people in hostels, bed & breakfast accomodation and hidden homeless of sofa dwellers etc is absolutely a disgrace in this country.

But they arnt the ones driving the market are they, they have sod all influence. At the moment.

Rick62

The sky is about to fall in doomsday mongerers have been predicting

I think property is well overpriced and is due for a correction ('crash'). I don't think the sky is going to fall in and I don't see a fall as negative but as positive. The British must be the only people in the world who view their biggest purchase rising in value as being positive. There is nothing whatsoever positive about rising and high prices unless 1. You are downsizing, 2. You have speculated and bought wildly and overpaid and are depedant on further rising prices to bail you out.

scorpio_princess

Dead_Eye_Jones wrote:

very much agree with the point on a uniformed crash, I certainly agree that new build flats will see a loss, these are going up all over the place and where I live cost more than a house!! Thing is though, they are sold at a premium through clever marketing and that they are "new". And very persuaive these factors are too.

However after a year or 2 all these people in swish flats are going to start wanting to upsize to a more family orientated house. So we'll have a load of these luxury pads flooding the market, they wont come with attractive 'deals' this time round and will nolonger be new - infact they will be competing with newer new builds being agressively marketed! All the owners will be pairing up and looking for family houses in family areas

This has happened here already. I rent a one bed flat on a development near the city centre and when they were built everyone wanted to live there - it was very fashionable, and there were bidding wars left right and centre back in 2000. It's a very different story now. My rent is 450 pcm, which is an absolute steal when you compare it to the newbuilds I can see from my kitchen window - the best you'll get is 650pcm for a 'luxury riverside apartment' (exactly the words they used to market my development). As a result, all the sheeple are snapping up these new builds (or at least wanting to - I personally know such people), leaving the former luxury flats all up for rent or sale. Trouble is, these flats would surely only appeal to FTBs, and because of the bonkers house prices, they can't afford to buy them, and so they hang around unsold for ages.

Most of these 'luxury' flats are slapped up in a matter of weeks - somehow, I doubt they'll stand the test of time like some of the beautiful Edwardian and Victorian terraced houses. Rabbit hutches springs to mind...

scooter100_2

i am in the same situation as the original poster in that if there was a crash and a uniform reduction in prices i would be better off on my next purchase.However in the event of a crash it wouldnt just be limited to house prices.Consumer confidence would plummet, unemployment would soar and in all likelehood this country would enter a deep recession.I bought my first house in 1992, 4 years after the last house price crash thinking i had got a bargain. i sold it for a £10000 loss 3 years later.Anyone remember the "green shoots of recovery", well it took 8 years before house prices started rising again and getting on for a million homes were reposessed.Untold human misery and over 3 million unemployed. I certainly wouldnt look forward to this.

JHB205

scooter100 wrote:

i am in the same situation as the original poster in that if there was a crash and a uniform reduction in prices i would be better off on my next purchase.However in the event of a crash it wouldnt just be limited to house prices.Consumer confidence would plummet, unemployment would soar and in all likelehood this country would enter a deep recession.I bought my first house in 1992, 4 years after the last house price crash thinking i had got a bargain. i sold it for a £10000 loss 3 years later.Anyone remember the "green shoots of recovery", well it took 8 years before house prices started rising again and getting on for a million homes were reposessed.Untold human misery and over 3 million unemployed. I certainly wouldnt look forward to this.

I agree entirely, however peoples homes shouldn't be a business as they are in many cases at the moment. Its just a shame its not the 'fat cats' that go hungry in these situations!!

ashm1

I would be a FTB but I simply could not buy a tiny studio flat at 6X income. I couldn't see myself living in a studio flat for the rest of my life so that would make buying it an investment in my IMO. As house prices are growing faster than wage inflation I think this means that the market for the flat would be become smaller.

Personally a 'flat' housing market is what I want. A crash would mean the economy had gone down the toilet. However, I'm unsure if a housing market could actually 'stay flat' due to expectations of future growth by some homebuyers.


Thanks,

Ash.

scorpio_princess

lynzpower wrote:

Is there enough housing for all? At the right price and the right size & the right areas?

Id say no, there isnt. those at the bottom end of the ladder, there is massive amount of homelessness due to rising rents in london - HB wont pay it, so the LL evicts to get professional tenants in.



the amount of people in hostels, bed & breakfast accomodation and hidden homeless of sofa dwellers etc is absolutely a disgrace in this country.

Completely agree with you - did you see that programme on BBC1 last night? I just posted on another thread about how shameful it all is. Makes me really upset - and really grateful that I have a place to call home.

cwcw

If house prices crash it certainly doesn't mean that affordability will suddenly increase. Mortgages will be harder to get, interest rates will probably have risen to have triggered a crash, and the knock on effect to the wider economy will mean job losses. I bet many that don't want to buy now will still have problems buying after a crash, although missing out on negative equity will probably make up for it.

CB1979_2

cwcw wrote:

If house prices crash it certainly doesn't mean that affordability will suddenly increase. Mortgages will be harder to get, interest rates will probably have risen to have triggered a crash, and the knock on effect to the wider economy will mean job losses. I bet many that don't want to buy now will still have problems buying after a crash, although missing out on negative equity will probably make up for it.

yep and then in 5 years time when the "affordable" housing has then become unaffordable again to the other FTB's, these home owners will come obviously be hoping for another crash to enable the FTB's to get a place!

makes me laugh that all the FTB's on here moaning that they can't get on the ladder, but are soo desperate to get on it though

very hypocritical in my eyes.

in my very simple world, it is very simple reasons behind the rising house prices compared to 10,20,30 years ago.
SOCIAL TRENDS/VALUES have changed:
1) more single parent families
2) more families divorced (meaning one family now needs 2 homes)
3) more immigrants
4) more friends/relatives happy to purchase with one & another

etc etc

but yes i acknowledge that other factors come into it, but it's only really been the last 5-10 years where those factors have rapidly increased so we can't compare nowadays to 10-30 years ago as they are not even remotely comparable.