The economy will pick up from May onwards

B_Blank

In my opinion the economy will pick up from May.

The biggest drag on the economy at the moment is consumer confidence. This will lift once people realise things arent as bad as all the media have been suggesting.

I predict it will take till may before people realise that this "austerity" isnt as bad at they thought, and confidence will return from then onwards.

worldtraveller

B_Blank wrote: »

In my opinion the economy will pick up from May.

IMHO the opposite. I expect a slight uptick in Q1 2011, compared to Q4 2010, but a further decline in Q2 2011. I continue to believe that things are worse than the media are generally suggesting/reporting.

However, should there be a taxpayer financed re-run of the UK Government movie "QE", the magicians smoke & mirrors illusion may well may continue for a bit longer. However, the white rabbit is now getting very tired and looking a bit old and the magicians top hat is looking very worn indeed! He has recently been seen checking out the internet to see if some form of EU bailout is possible to pay for carrots to keep his rabbit alive. Apparently the interest rates available for investing in carrots have been somewhat high. However, the magician knows that he can probably get any carrot loans written off in the long term. He's therefore decided to take one out now and screw the EU taxpayer losers rotten later.

shortchanged_2

So come on B Blank, honesty time. Are you Hamish, Sibley or some other bull in disguise?

B_Blank

shortchanged wrote: »

So come on B Blank, honesty time. Are you Hamish, Sibley or some other bull in disguise?

Of course not. I want house prices to plummet.

I think even with consumer confidence picking up it wont make house prices rise again due to interest rate rises and highish unemployment.

shortchanged_2

B_Blank wrote: »

Of course not. I want house prices to plummet.

I think even with consumer confidence picking up it wont make house prices rise again due to interest rate rises and highish unemployment.

Yeah right. You are so obviously playing the role of a capitulating bear.

B_Blank

shortchanged wrote: »

Yeah right. You are so obviously playing the role of a capitulating bear.

Get a grip mate and stop your trolling.

Some of us bears can be generally bearish but sometimes have bullish views.

downshifter98

Personally I can't see where all the doom and gloom comes from; I don't know what the exact figures are but 50 years ago the country was valued at, say, £1 trillion and overall debt (private and public) was perhaps half a trillion - now we owe a combined £2 1/2 trillion (ish) and the country is valued at £4 trillion plus - sounds like good business to me. And none of that includes the 'value' of being such a stable country (both civil and weather wise) which means we will always attract the rich and successful. Of course a bit of debt repayment won't go amiss but I think we have to keep it in perspective and realise that we are a long way away from Portugal et al. I actually think that the average man/woman in the street appreciates this better than the media etc and luckily seem pretty level headed about it all (ie are now more keen to repay debts) and understand that reining in the public sector is not going to bring the sky in.

Graham_Devon

Been stating that there will be a double dip for probably 12 months, maybe more, now.

Think we may be closer to that now. This year is going to be tough. Even WITH stimulus in place, such as low interest rates, many more people are starting to struggle (BBC comment, not mine). Fuel and inflation is one of the biggest concerns for families...though not neccesarily the government/BOE.

People may well get an extension to 0.5% interest rates. But it is for all the wrong reasons. We'll see though, as Europe is now taking action against inflation (the inflation we apparently can't take action against) and has started raising rates. Will be interesting to see whether the BOE decides to follow, or decides to wait and see some more.

If they do start raising rates, it will need to get to 2% really before the pressure from mortgage payments is piled on top of rising inflation.

shortchanged_2

B_Blank wrote: »

Get a grip mate and stop your trolling.

Some of us bears can be generally bearish but sometimes have bullish views.

Who is the one that writes some stupid bear party thread then a day or two later another saying I give up there will be no crash.

You are obviously some attempt at a bull pretending to be a bear that has suddenly 'seen the light'

Either that or you have a serious bipolar disorder.

thescouselander

Actually, I reckon things are going down hill from here for a while. Government spending cuts haven't really got under way yet but now we are into the new financial year we are really going to start seeing the effects from redundancy schemes in the public sector and reduced direct government spending with the private sector.

I for one will be spending very little - most of my disposable income is going into savings and investments at the moment - batten down the hatches!

julieq

Oddly enough I rather agree with Graham on this, but it's based on looking at global trend data (day job data), not local trends. I'm seeing a trend of a fallback since the turn of the year despite relatively strong growth in the months preceding that. The US appears to be the prime culprit. That might be oil price related, but it's really very hard to see any strong correlation with anything you can point your finger at.

I don't see a deep dip though. There's nothing to suggest anything's falling off a cliff.

In the UK things won't be as bad as we think they're going to be in terms of unemployment (unless you're young), and confidence is gradually coming back. There's probably enough flakiness in the economy to keep rates lowish for some years.