How long can FTB-s afford to wait?

Jimmy_31

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yet both the number of FTB-s and also the amount they are paying for houses is increasing.

And with rents increasing markedly, and prices now rising again, not buying is a bit, well, stupid. Which probably explains your stance on the matter.

Prices are not rising in my area.

replumbed

julieq wrote: »

I'm going to take you back to 2009 now.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=20325011&postcount=68

This was what I was saying roughly 2 years ago, pretty much at the bottom of the market. We now have 2 years history to back up my suggestions, which was that at that point in time for a cash investor, housing looked a decent investment. From this point with a significant rise in prices (I was working on the assumption of a 2 year fall then 5 years back to the nominal purchase value) it still looks a reasonable investment at a time of low interest rates and uncertain economic growth, especially since there should be reasonable nominal price growth over 5-7 years.

And obviously something is keeping cash buyers in the market. They don't have to buy houses, but clearly the more astute are seeing the opportunities I pointed out. Given first time buyers were out of the market from 2009 to now, prices were being sustained by something, and it would appear that cash buyers are seeing the opportunities. Anyway I'll see you back here in a couple of years to see what happens, but I agree with Hamish, there are first time buyers engaged in what is essentially a race to get back into the market, and that's why the ftb market is tighter than other sectors. That leads to price increases.

In the meantime, the bear arguments from that period really have not been borne out at all. Even Thrugelmir, who I count as a thoughtful bearish poster, was worrying disproportionately about interest rate increases. Some of the more extreme bears (where are you now, Fungusfighter?) were being dismissive and patronising and totally wrong.

Fungus Fighter is alive and well. I'm sure he'd thank you for your concern.

The trouble with many bulls: they cheer on house price rises which result in innafordability for young people. It's pa_edo masochism.

Graham_Devon

I love replumbed and rewired.

Would reupholstered please come forward.

System

replumbed is like doire and naerlynew combined.

Like, some kind of hybrid supertard.

mcc100

julieq wrote: »

I'm going to take you back to 2009 now.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=20325011&postcount=68

This was what I was saying roughly 2 years ago, pretty much at the bottom of the market.

So you really believe that the bottom of the market was two years ago ......

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

mcc100 wrote: »

So you really believe that the bottom of the market was two years ago ......

Blindingly obvious really.....

mcc100

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Blindingly obvious really.....

Of course .......

Graham_Devon

mcc100 wrote: »

Of course .......

If house prices fall below that "bottom", than that will be a different "cycle". Hamish will always be correct. He'll just change the definitions as he goes.

julieq

mcc100 wrote: »

So you really believe that the bottom of the market was two years ago ......

At the time I didn't, I was working on the assumption that prices would go down for a couple of years and take 5 years to get back to the level at the time I made the suggestions. On that basis, BTL became a 7 year bond with an excellent yield, with a chance of capital gains.

As it happens they went up.

Now, you have to ask yourself whether if prices go up during a recession triggered by one of the worst financial crises we've every had, what has to go wrong for them to go down much. And it's nothing that's obviously on the horizon. We have a recovery of sorts, and it will strengthen. Banks want to increase lending, and are increasing lending. First time buyers want to buy, as do property investors. And all the time supply of housing is short of demand for housing, rented or owner occupied.

Now you can go back to any point over the last 3 years and find comments like the one you just made. There are pages of threads in early 2009 sarcastically mocking anyone who dared to suggest prices wouldn't go down 50% or 70% by 2011.

And they didn't.

So yes, I trust my judgement on when the bottom of the market was much better than yours.

mcc100

julieq wrote: »

So yes, I trust my judgement on when the bottom of the market was much better than yours.

What a condescending comment ......... I have never made a comment as to when I think the market has bottomed out ........