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Debate House Prices
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Halifax +0.1%
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I can go and buy a house tomorrow that is nearly 20k cheaper than it was last february,
Example 1:
Person A has a house on the market for an asking price of 210K.
He only needs to get 180K, but he's put it on for 210K because he wants to give buyers room to haggle. If you offer him 180K he'll accept.
One year later, the house has not sold.
So he drops the price to 190K. He still needs to get 180K, but he's dropped the asking price to stir up some interest on the rightmove searches.
Jimmy comes along and offers him 180K. He accepts. Jimmy thought he had a bargain. The seller laughs all the way to the bank.
Example 2.
Jimmy wants to buy a house. Jimmy doesn't believe in checking house price indices or any other form of research, he'd rather just look in an estate agents window.
So Jimmy notices that house asking prices are still falling slightly, and so thinks, "there's no rush, houses are still getting cheaper".
What Jimmy doesn't notice is that the percentage of asking price achieved is actually rising, so actual sold house prices are getting more expensive. And by the time Jimmy notices houses are selling, and new ones come on at a higher price, it'll be too late.you seem to have missed a few of my posts and missed a lot of other peoples posts,
If I replied to every post on here, I'd never have time for anything else.
Some posts are just too stupid to bother with.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Have you seriously just raised this point? You don't see the point of using averages as a way to help people understand complex statistical information?
The average published house price doesn't effect house prices, the published average house price is what you get after all the effects on the market have been taken in to account.
This is probably one of the rudest things I've ever said on here, so apologies in advance, but I don't think you're particularly bright, so maybe it's best to leave this debate here.
The average published house price was constantly being thrown in peoples faces during the boom, all that people could see were news stories about the average house price rising day in day out, oh heres the news lets see how many hundreds of pounds a house has risen by today, and you seriously believe that this constant barrage of house price data had no effect on the housing market at all not one single bit
Thousands of people bought homes based on news stories that were based on the average house price data released by the banks because they were scared they could never buy one if they didnt (buy a house now, get in quick, this maybe your last chance) , so all these thousands of people paid the inflated price caused by easy money therfore imo this pushed prices up.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Example 1:
Person A has a house on the market for an asking price of 210K.
He only needs to get 180K, but he's put it on for 210K because he wants to give buyers room to haggle. If you offer him 180K he'll accept.
One year later, the house has not sold.
So he drops the price to 190K. He still needs to get 180K, but he's dropped the asking price to stir up some interest on the rightmove searches.
Jimmy comes along and offers him 180K. He accepts. Jimmy thought he had a bargain. The seller laughs all the way to the bank.
Example 2.
Jimmy wants to buy a house. Jimmy doesn't believe in checking house price indices or any other form of research, he'd rather just look in an estate agents window.
So Jimmy notices that house asking prices are still falling slightly, and so thinks, "there's no rush, houses are still getting cheaper".
What Jimmy doesn't notice is that the percentage of asking price achieved is actually rising, so actual sold house prices are getting more expensive. And by the time Jimmy notices houses are selling, and new ones come on at a higher price, it'll be too late.
If I replied to every post on here, I'd never have time for anything else.
Some posts are just too stupid to bother with.
Oh right so were not actually basing this on asking prices but the secret price the seller actually wants, if i buy a house tomorrow based on the asking price i will get it for nearly 20k less than last years asking price, we all know you dont pay asking price, nobody ever knows what the seller would have accepted.
And for your second example you expect me to call the absolute bottom of the housing market, i dont need to do that because once the overpriced houses in my area drop another 10% then i can buy because its at price im happy to pay. i dont think we are at the bottom yet because all the same houses are still sat in all the same windows, the fantastic opportunitys i keep missing to attend the open days for almost every single one of these houses dont seem to be helping sales at all so im 99% sure that the prices will not rise in the near future so im happy to sit and wait.
In your first example i would not be offering 180k by the way, nowhere near it.
Example 1
Hamish reads a post directed at him that he can only answer by admitting he is wrong.
Hamish deems this post to be silly and completely ignores it.
The readers of the forum are laughing all the way to the bog.0 -
Oh right so were not actually basing this on asking prices but the secret price the seller actually wants, if i buy a house tomorrow based on the asking price i will get it for nearly 20k less than last years asking price, we all know you dont pay asking price, nobody ever knows what the seller would have accepted.
We can talk about made up scenarios all we like, but we don't need to. The Halifax released a report (linky) recently that states that, on average, house prices are 2.9% lower now than they were a year ago.
So do we both agree that, on average, houses are 2.9% cheaper now than they worth 12 months ago? Obviously this is averages we're talking about, so there will be some houses selling for 20% cheaper than they were a year ago and there will be some selling for 20% more than they were a year ago. Is this making sense?0 -
JonnyBravo wrote: »What time do we start tomorrow?
Do you prefer red or green apples?
Beer please.
Blimey, who'd be a maths teacher if this is what you have to cope with?0 -
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We can talk about made up scenarios all we like, but we don't need to. The Halifax released a report (linky) recently that states that, on average, house prices are 2.9% lower now than they were a year ago.
So do we both agree that, on average, houses are 2.9% cheaper now than they worth 12 months ago? Obviously this is averages we're talking about, so there will be some houses selling for 20% cheaper than they were a year ago and there will be some selling for 20% more than they were a year ago. Is this making sense?
I think its you that isnt quite grasping it sir.
I DO NOT CARE what the average house price in britain is, the reason i do not care is there are plenty of houses for sale in my area that show no relation to the average house price in britain or even the local area, there are many that probably do show a relation to the average house price in britain because they are way way overpriced but obviously i have no interest in these homes because i will not get value for money ( this is not based on me knowing the average price in britain this is me knowing i can get the same house further up the street for 20k less), i will buy one of the houses that are currently priced 20% lower than the houses surrounding it that are still too overpriced.
In the last 5 years i have taken no notice to what the average house price in britain is, i have just looked in the EAs window and seen that they are still too overpriced so i havent bought one, my system must be working ok because in the last 12 months they have dropped by quite a large amount so i have saved myself a large amount of money.
How did anybody manage to buy a house years ago before all this data got published every month, i presume they just looked in the EAs window and waited to see a house they liked with an acceptable price tag attached.0 -
JonnyBravo wrote: »I think I'd want to teach "top set" rather than the class you're taking.
Jimmy is a lovely child who has is own special personal goals and objectives that we're very sure he will achieve by the end of this school year.
That's what I'd be saying at parents evening anyway.0 -
I think its you that isnt quite grasping it sir.
I DO NOT CARE what the average house price in britain is, the reason i do not care is there are plenty of houses for sale in my area that show no relation to the average house price in britain or even the local area,
Well that's a different thing isn't it? I'm fine with what you've just said. It's the same as me saying, "this report states that the average wife is 15 stone, whereas mine is 9 stone, so I don't care". Which is fine. But the average wife is still 15 stone.
Where I disagree with you is the bit in bold. The house prices in your local area do relate to the stats for the average house prices in your area, as one stat is taken from the other. So they are inextricably linked.there are many that probably do show a relation to the average house price in britain because they are way way overpriced but obviously i have no interest in these homes because i will not get value for money
I think you're still confused. The average price is the average sales price for all the houses that sell. That's it. It's as simple as that.In the last 5 years i have taken no notice to what the average house price in britain is, i have just looked in the EAs window and seen that they are still too overpriced so i havent bought one
Again, these are two unrelated statements. As I type this the value of a Marks and Spencer share is 359.22p. That's just a fact, same at the average house price. Whether you or I think that the price of a M&S share or the average house represents good value, or whether we chose to buy either or not, is a completely different kettle of fish.
I'm still not quite sure you understand that when you or someone else does buy a house, that one purchase represents one data point that makes up the average house price that you see in your newspaper? The price you see in the EA window doesn't really have much to do with it?How did anybody manage to buy a house years ago before all this data got published every month, i presume they just looked in the EAs window and waited to see a house they liked with an acceptable price tag attached.
Average house price data has been published for decades and decades and decades. in fact, I'd probably take a guess that average house price data was invented before Estate Agents were.0 -
Obviously this is averages we're talking about, so there will be some houses selling for 20% cheaper than they were a year ago and there will be some selling for 20% more than they were a year ago.
Mate, forget it.
I admire your patience and persistence but you've got more chance of teaching quantum physics to Forrest Gump than getting Jimmy to understand averages.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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