House prices by 2015

abaxas

chucky wrote: »

if on average there is HPI of 3% over the period, house prices could be 15% higher than today.

an average HPI of 4% would be 21%.

And 3% pa of young people opting out of working etc.

Blacklight

We've had 32 months of price stagnation.

Nationwide index:

Aug-08 328.5
Sep-08 322.8
Oct-08 316.9
Nov-08 316.1
Dec-08 305.3
Jan-09 300.2
Feb-09 294.7
Mar-09 301.1
Apr-09 302.9
May-09 307.2
Jun-09 312.1
Jul-09 316.9
Aug-09 319.6
Sep-09 322.8
Oct-09 323.2
Nov-09 324.7
Dec-09 323.4
Jan-10 326.1
Feb-10 321.8
Mar-10 328.2
Apr-10 334.7
May-10 336.0
Jun-10 336.0
Jul-10 334.0
Aug-10 330.5
Sep-10 330.9
Oct-10 327.9
Nov-10 326.9
Dec-10 324.7
Jan-11 322.4
Feb-11 328.0
Mar-11 330.9

Based on previous periods of boom - bust - stagnation, it won't be long before prices start to rise again.

We know prices are falling in real terms, as soon as wage inflation starts again (already has in private sector after two years of pay freezes) people will find houses are very cheap all of a sudden. Cue rush to buy and booming market again.

Graham_Devon

Blacklight wrote: »

We know prices are falling in real terms, as soon as wage inflation starts again (already has in private sector after two years of pay freezes) people will find houses are very cheap all of a sudden. Cue rush to buy and booming market again.

Fail, sorry.

Despite encouraging sounds from economists, private sector workers are still not seeing the proof of economic recovery in their pay packets, new figures show.

Just recently, the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, noted that British households are currently being subjected to the most prolonged squeeze on real incomes seen since the 1920s.

Now, new figures compiled by Vocalink have served to support such a viewpoint, with the firm's latest FTSE 350 index showing that earnings within the private sector increased by an average of just 0.5 per cent over the three months to the end of February.

Houses will be very cheap all of a sudden, based on 0.5% pay rises when inflation is nearly 5%?

JonnyBravo

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Houses will be very cheap all of a sudden, based on 0.5% pay rises when inflation is nearly 5%?

I think payrises are soon to play catch up. Once the fear (of redundancy) passes, and that is only a matter of months away, pay will start to rise.
Our co. handed out 3.5% this year after 2 years of under 2%.
I think rises will more minimise price drops than cause runaway price rises.

More stagnation to come IMO.

GStar2006

chewmylegoff wrote: »

if millions of public sector workers decide not to pay the employee contribution into their pension schemes, they will have to leave the schemes, thus waiving their entitlement to future pension payments. would be pretty helpful for the UK's off balance sheet liabilities if they did do this en masse, but in reality their 5% employee contributions (or whatever they are asked to pay in) are not going to support property purchases (and it would be financially illogical to withdraw from any scheme where the employer pays in, as you are effectively taking voluntary pay cut).

I wish it was 5% but me and the OH are facing the not very nice prospect of being asked to pay 13% of our salaries into our public sector pensions. This is following on from being told that not only will we not be getting any cost of living increases (have been below inflation for last 4 5years already) but also having salaries frozen at our current pay scales for 2 years.

If the cost of living carries on increasing like it has we're both going to be a lot worse off.

At this time without some very good financial advise I can't see us opting out of the pension though as even with an extra £600 a month we wouldn't be in a position to purchase another property as an investment.

chucky

JonnyBravo wrote: »

I think payrises are soon to play catch up. Once the fear (of redundancy) passes, and that is only a matter of months away, pay will start to rise.
Our co. handed out 3.5% this year after 2 years of under 2%.
I think rises will more minimise price drops than cause runaway price rises.

More stagnation to come IMO.

there will be house price rises over the next 0-5 years and there will be price rises over the next 10 years.

there is no way that people getting 3% pay rises that there won't be notional house price rises. inflation may probably be higher than though.

Loughton_Monkey

House prices ultimately go up with the price of land and the cost of building them. Severl 'market' issues intervene to prevent this being a continuous direct relationship - but over any decade, this will broadly be true.

macaque_2

Turnbull2000 wrote: »

Mainstream lenders should return to 95% mortgages this year, with 100% following in 2012 or 2013. With this in mind, looser mortgage criteria will likely leave prices 20% or so higher I reckon. Though the market will be driven by amateur and institutional (in particular) property investors rather than first-time buyers.

In other news, Israel will hand over the captured territories to Palestine and France will restore its monarchy.

purch

Mainstream lenders should return to 95% mortgages this year, with 100% following in 2012 or 2013.

By 2015 it should be 125%, and by 2020 it should definately be 147 3/4 %:eek:

Loughton_Monkey

macaque wrote: »

In other news, Israel will hand over the captured territories to Palestine and France will restore its monarchy.

Come off it!

That's about as likely as house prices falling over the next 4 years. Houses are becoming a rare commodity and very few will be built. All the 30-somethings who don't lose their jobs will be buying like nobody's business just as soon as they have saved the deposit.

Those losing their jobs will be repossessed, ensuring a good supply of reasonably priced houses that will be snapped up like there's no tomorrow.

Houses of the FTB variety will again be snapped up by semi-rich BTL merchants to house the riff-raff from above, plus all those who don't go to university won't earn enough any more to buy them.

Those that do go to university will spend half their lives getting rid of the student loan and saving for a deposit.

But then again, I might be wrong, and they'll plummet by 50% as you believe they will.