Earthquake (8.9magnitude) & Tsunami hits Tokyo

globalds

julieq wrote: »

Reports of probable nuclear meltdown this morning, so this isn't looking good at all. And some horrific pictures generally. The one haunting me in particular is a car swirling round with the rear wipers still on.

But you have to wonder what the effect of insurance payouts will be in Japan. It will be a massive wealth transfer from the insurance industry to manufacturing, and you'd be surprised if there wasn't a stimulus effect.

On a positive note it is good to see how open the Japanese authorities are being.

I remember previous incidents where leaks and fires at nuclear plants have been covered up for as long as possible.

I read yesterday that Japan does not tend to spread the risk of insurance as much as Europe or the States. Meaning the Japanese government will pay for most reconstruction.

Kobe Quake $100 billion in economic damage and only $3 billion insured.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110311-714648.html

I would say that after seeing how many of these buildings survived, Japanese construction companies will have lots of calls for work in earthquake prone regions.

GDB2222

julieq wrote: »

Reports of probable nuclear meltdown this morning, so this isn't looking good at all.

I have a nasty feeling that these reports are not going to turn out to be an exaggeration. The blast is probably due to hydrogen being produced when the core becomes super-hot and what's left of the coolant water reacts with the fuel rod casings. This is looking significantly worse than Three Mile Island, where they were able to vent the gas off over a couple of days.

Generali

GDB2222 wrote: »

I have a nasty feeling that these reports are not going to turn out to be an exaggeration. The blast is probably due to hydrogen being produced when the core becomes super-hot and what's left of the coolant water reacts with the fuel rod casings. This is looking significantly worse than Three Mile Island, where they were able to vent the gas off over a couple of days.

Wasn't it the case that nobody died as a result of Three Mile Island?

We'll see how bad this is but the reports on the World Service suggest that it isn't so terrible. I claim absolutely no expertise here though.

mystic_trev

The Hawaiian surf championships have been won in controversial circumstances by a Japanese man in a wardrobe.

julieq

There's enough to be read between the lines of the Japanese response to indicate there's been a serious leak I think, so the main issue is whether it gets spread widely. That would need a very large explosion - bigger than the one we had - or a fire to lift radioactive material high up. I was struck yesterday that the first statement on the nuclear plants was equivocal, and I think there's plenty to worry about.

Anyone for a Mayan calendar?

Generali

Photos of the earthquake and aftermath:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/asia-pacific/stunning-photos-of-japans-earthquake-and-tsunami/article1938282/?from=sec385

ChiefGrasscutter

Generali wrote: »

Wasn't it the case that nobody died as a result of Three Mile Island?

We'll see how bad this is but the reports on the World Service suggest that it isn't so terrible. I claim absolutely no expertise here though.

Correct re three mile island
There was a T-shirt doing the rounds at the time.
The quote on it was something along the lines of
"more people have died in Teddy Kennedy's car than at Three mile Island"

Goodness knows what is really going on. Possibility.....
Reactor shut down at quake time - OK
Latent heat remaining in the core gets hotter
Water level in core drops, due to coolant failure
All the backups fail to start (well actually all you need would be a misalignment in the emergency generator's shaft line up due to the quake shifting things and it would nay rotate.)
Standing emergency water tanks destroyed
Core becomes uncovered due to water loss and water remaining starts to flash over into steam and decomposes into hydrogen and oxygen
Spark Boom
Top of contaiment (ie the load floor) shifts...ooops
Now have live steam and whatever in the main building outside the containment.

I know enough about the subject to know that I don't really know enough to comment wisely!
We need a nuclear expert - but they are probably bound by contract and security clearance not to talk on public forums.

IF any radioactive particles do escape in any serious quantity then things like the prevailing wind directions at various altitiudes and whether or not it is going to rain will be critial factors in determing what happens to the radioactivity.

PasturesNew

julieq wrote: »

Anyone for a Mayan calendar?

D4mn, if only you'd asked earlier ... I've spent all my money on rolls of tin foil and a couple of origami books now!

PasturesNew

ChiefGrasscutter wrote: »

Top of contaiment (ie the load floor) shifts...ooops
Now have live steam and whatever in the main building outside the containment.

The whole of Japan moved 8 feet to the left at some point, can't have done the connections a lot of good.

ChiefGrasscutter

It may well be that the concrete containment dome is secure but the pipes connecting the inner vessel to the turbines were damaged. That would enable them to claim the containment is OK - while missing out the other bit.

These reactors types (?as I recall?) do not have a heat exchanger in the system so the live steam direct from the core circulates through the turbines - and not just through a heat exchanger and then back into the core again. So a failure in the pipework might possibly lead to some radioactive release - depending on how the turbines are contained - back to the detailed knowledge required of the precise design to comment properly.

6pm BBC now reporting that they are pumping sea water into the core to cool it.

That will totally trash the whole core (Contamination)
So they have clearly decided to stop it at all costs and wreck the core into the bargain.
It will never generate electric power again
It is scrap.