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Solar Heating - grant aid and advice?

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  • Cardew wrote:
    You asked for comments - where do I start!

    from the beginning obviously :) as a debate i'd like to arrive at assumptions that appear reasonable i'm not interested in hype but a fair basis for a calculation on the benefits.

    Cardew wrote:
    Some general points:
    When most(all) washing machines and dishwashers are cold fill, many of us use Domestic Hot Water(DHW) mainly for baths and (non-electric)showers.
    (i can support these penetration figures) only 25% of houeholds have a dishwasher and most 79% have a washing machine. but the energy they use is not gas related, the amount of DHW is still based on the DHW used nowhere does it state including washing machine and dishwasher useage. I could argue it specifically doesn't include these machines in useage because they are normally cold fill, and if they became hot fill they would save additional energy and make a stronger case for savings from solar hot water.
    - European Commission – DG Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability
    A washing machine and dish-washer consume each, on average 250 kWh/yr per household. In case of electric hot water production solely by electricity, a household is estimated to consume around 1 to 1.5 MWh/yr [11 and 15] depending on fully use of electricity or electricity assisted hot water production.

    I support my argument that 25% is reasonable but shall we conceed to use a figure of 20% -24%?
    -energy savings trust
    For the housing stock as a whole, with an average SAP18 rating of 42, heating and hot water accounts for 83% (59% heating; 24% hot water) of total domestic energy. This represents approx 24% of total UK energy consumption. A newly built house, with good standards of insulation providing a SAP of 80, can reduce heating requirements by about 75%. However, water heating requirements remain the same. Within new houses, the energy needed to heat air and water is 72% of total energy consumed.19

    and
    - 40percent.org.uk
    Since 1970, energy use per household has changed very little but because of a substantial growth in household numbers overall energy consumption has increased by 32%. The main areas of energy demand are space heating, accounting for 60% of energy use, followed by hot water heating (25%) and lighting and appliances (15%). In the last thirty years gains in energy efficiency have been offset by an increase in comfort and an increase in electricity for lights and appliances.
    I bolded the appliances as this infers appliances are outside the DHW useage.
    Cardew wrote:
    In fact there are lots of studies that put the average household energy consumption for DHW at 4,000 – 5,000kWh p.a. That costed at 3p kWh for gas/economy 7 is more like £120-150 per year.

    3p/kW seems a little low, even if on economy 7 the water was heated only at night the rate is higher than that Hot water demand could see useage outside the low rate tariff with 3 or 7 times the price of 3p/kW in addition economy 7 would mean throughout the day paying a premium on for all other electricity useage. negating the effect of heating by economy7 at night.
    I would suggest an average of 12p/kW for electricity heating is more appropriate.
    this would be £480 - £600 per year 50% of that would give a total of £4207 - £5259 after 10 years

    and 3.4p/kW for gas £136 - £170 50% of this would be £1367 - £1490 after 10 years

    Gas
    - EDFenergy
    Gas tariff
    Units 4.127p per kWh
    Units above 5860 kWh p.a 2.596p per kWh
    All prices shown are inclusive of V.A.T. at 5%

    Electricity tariff
    Units 15.698p per kWh
    Units above 900 kWh p.a 10.668p per kWh
    All prices shown are inclusive of V.A.T. at 5%


    To save 50% overall of those costs(and I have never seen verified figures as high as 50% - let alone an incredible 70%) you are talking of a start point in savings of £60-£75 pa and not the £100 you claim. That is in line with the experience of people with solar systems fitted.
    -http://www.foe.co.uk/campaigns/climate/news/solar_heating_cornwall.html

    "The system we use provides about 80% of our domestic hot water needs."
    Cardrew wrote:
    So even accepting that fuel prices are to increase(by your estimate) of 10% per year for the next 10 years
    i'll answer that with
    -www.nea.org.uk/downloads/publications/The_Fall_and_Rise_of_Fuel_Prices_and_Fuel_Poverty_(FULL_REP).pdf
    "The best scenario … is for gas and electricity prices to rise no more than 10% over the period 2005 to 2009"
    and in the past 3 years energy prices have doubled should I factor in a higher rate? This would simply make the Solar ROI far quicker



    Cardrew wrote:
    I don’t accept at all the standard ‘line’ of the solar industry that you will save £400 over 10 years on boiler servicing and replacements costs; but I can’t be bothered to argue – so will concede that point.
    Thank you but it was £200 on boiler servicing and replacement parts cost over 10 years not £400. (An insurance policy for a boiler is around £120 a year call a manufacturer out on a breakdown and you are looking at a fixed price of £200 a throw including parts. I based the average cost on that and experience)
    The other £200 came from the boiler lasting longer.
    Cardrew wrote:
    I note you have not included the cost of installing a thermal store, but quote £4,000 -£4,500 for a solar panel system.

    This price includes the thermal store.
    Cardrew wrote:
    A couple of points you have missed.
    Cost of running a pump? Servicing costs?(Energy Saving Trust recommend it). Repairs to system (pump, piping, electronics, panels) After all if you factor in savings on repairs to boiler in your savings, why do you not factor in repairs in your costs?

    True so lets work it out.
    Central Heating Pump An average days' operation for ½ a unit (source EDF energy) pump runs for 1/3rd of a day which is (1/3(£0.15/2))= £0.025/day
    Basing it operating at 50% therefore of the year it is 50% of the time running =((365/2)*0.025) £4.56/year Roughly £5 a year to run the pump. The controller guestimate at half that? £2.50
    Total £7.50

    Costs of maintenance using the sytem I discussed are reduced, the cylinder isn't pressurised therefore no requirment to check the safety controls on the cylinder annually. User may check the system pressure annually to ensure no drop in pressure and I would suggest five yearly check / even replace the solar fluid glycol in the circuit. £65+vat? /5 =£13/yr

    Grand total for servicing and running costs £20.50/year £205 over 10 years. It cancels out the saving on maintenance to the boiler.
    Cardew wrote:
    One might also ask why guarantees are typically only 2 years if the systems are so reliable?
    Why do manufacturers only offer guarantees less than the expected life? the two are totally seperate, effective life is how long the product should mechanically and physically remain working, a guarantee is a protection against failure the older a system gets the harder it is to prove a failure is due to manufacture or wear and tear. That said some manufacturers offer 10 years on the panel and some 25 years on the solar cylinders.
    Cardew wrote:
    You claim that a saving of approx £2,400 over 10 years is possible. I maintain that a more realistic figure is less than half at an outside £1,200.

    I actually claimed the following
    we are now looking at a total saving of £2000 +£200 +£200 +£1016 = £3416 and this I believe is a conservative figure.
    Cardew wrote:
    However to achieve those savings we are required to spend £4,000 to £4,500 to fit a solar panel system. If we take the mid-point and borrow the money at 6% you are paying £255 pa in interest even before you start paying off any of your capital.

    borrowing£4500 at 6.5% over 10 years for simplicity i have shown the payments made yearly.

    Pmt# Balance Interest Principal Payment
    1 4,500.00 292.50 333.47 625.97
    2 4,166.53 270.82 355.15 625.97
    3 3,811.38 247.74 378.23 625.97
    4 3,433.15 223.15 402.82 625.97
    5 3,030.33 196.97 429.00 625.97
    6 2,601.34 169.09 456.88 625.97
    7 2,144.44 139.38 486.58 625.97
    8 1,657.87 107.76 518.21 625.97
    9 1,139.66 74.08 551.89 625.97
    10 587.77 38.20 587.77 625.97

    total interest is £1,759.71 not £2550 as you state.
    Cardew wrote:
    So you pay out over 10 years £2,550 in order to save either £2,400 or £1,200(depending who one believes) and you still owe the £4,000 to £4,500.

    You simply cannot ignore the borrowing costs(or compound loss of interest if you pay cash) of a system installed to save money. Your reasoning is akin to someone with a £100,000 mortgage saying my mortgage payments will be £4,000 a year for 25 years.

    However why not factor in the cost of the solar into the mortgage and pay it off on the term of the mortgage, most home improvement loans are done this way?


    Perhaps some of the factors i didn't consider are countered by others:

    Ok I didn't factor in the interest on the money, but what about the capital increase to the property, with a solar system providing free hot water would a potential house buyer be more or less likely to purchase your home in the future compared to the same house next door without solar heating? are they more likely to pay the asking price or a little more or less likely? if it was a £2000 difference I would think most would take the exact same house but with solar and pay the difference of £2000.

    Vat is charged at 5% if vat rates were to change to 17.5% for energy or a carbon tax were introduced the cost of energy could rise significantly and thereby the savings and ROI.


    SUMMARY

    where have we got to?

    I claimed
    we are now looking at a total saving of £2000 +£200 +£200 +£1016 = £3416 and this I believe is a conservative figure.

    Lets take out the £200 boiler maintenace/replacement parts as this is countered by the £200 running costs of solar for the same period.

    There is argument over the £2000 saving on gas used in heating DHW using Cardrews 4000 - 5000kW as opposed my 25% of gas used.
    split the difference using 5000 as the basis =£1500 and £2000 we'll use £1750


    Lets factor in the loan over 10 years at £1759. well the interest is negating the saving on DHW

    so we are left with £200 +£1016 = £1216 over £10 years.

    But we have an asset increase in the value of the property, if the cost of installing solar remains the same we are looking at least 50% of its value.
    a value of £2000 but it could be much more than this if cost of energy has increase by 10% per year for 10 years, this system is now worth twice its value today so is it unreasonable to expect the system to have a value of £4000 in ten years time?
    Even at £2000 this plus the £1216 =£3216 of real term saving. therefore if the system has cost us money it is £800 after 10 years.
    The figures look a lot closer to a pay back in 10 years at least if this is the sole reason for purchasing solar.
  • Cardew
    Cardew Posts: 29,063 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Rampant Recycler
    mrmister,
    There is no purpose in repeating our opposing positions point by point on the estimate of energy savings and future savings.

    You might however look at this quote of yours.
    3p/kW seems a little low, even if on economy 7 the water was heated only at night the rate is higher than that Hot water demand could see useage outside the low rate tariff with 3 or 7 times the price of 3p/kW in addition economy 7 would mean throughout the day paying a premium on for all other electricity useage. negating the effect of heating by economy7 at night.
    I would suggest an average of 12p/kW for electricity heating is more appropriate.
    this would be £480 - £600 per year 50% of that would give a total of £4207 - £5259 after 10 years

    and 3.4p/kW for gas £136 - £170 50% of this would be £1367 - £1490 after 10 years
    Firstly Equigas after their latest price increase supply gas at 2.55p/kWh(flat rate) and are not the cheapest.
    Secondly to quote 12p/kWh to heat all DHW(4000-5000kWh) for someone on Economy 7 is simply ludicrous.

    The bottom line is that, using your figures, you are advocating that someone spends £625.97 a year for 10 years to install ‘your’ system – a total of £6,250.70.

    This expenditure will initially save £60-£75pa(my figures), £100pa(your figures)

    If anyone believes that is a good deal then they should go for it.

    If they feel that it enhances the value of their house – then go for it.

    A final point.
    The Government have an active interest in promoting alternative energy and indeed encourage its use by means of grants(albeit they are totally inadequate). Your industry(I assume you sell solar systems?) understandably, stress its environmental advantages and generally make vague claims on possible money saving.

    If any alternative energy system for domestic households were financially viable, why has no single Government Department or Government backed agency – e.g. Energy Saving Trust – recommended a such a system on those grounds?

    Why has no independent and reputable organisation like Which or indeed Martin on this site made such a claim?

    They don't do so because they know such a claim would be ripped to shreds by experts far more eloquent than I!!
  • Cardew- if you choose to selectively only debate points that suit you and without supporting them then your argument is weakend.
    I am trying to responsible arrive at realistic ROI Whether I supply or fit solar or work in the industry is not the point of discussion, I am not advocating any product or promoting myself. A vested interest?, only in getting an outcome based on debated and agreed argument.
    Cardew wrote:
    mrmister,
    There is no purpose in repeating our opposing positions point by point on the estimate of energy savings and future savings.

    There is every point if it is relevant and my arguments have validity and I support them

    Firstly Equigas after their latest price increase supply gas at 2.55p/kWh(flat rate) and are not the cheapest.
    Secondly to quote 12p/kWh to heat all DHW(4000-5000kWh) for someone on Economy 7 is simply ludicrous.

    Lets reduce the antagonistic approach, it serves no purpose, simply because my argument differs to yours. The fact is only 7% of the uk heats its DHwater using Electricity anyway what percentage of that is Economy 7 I haven't established. But it is fact that economy 7 is only available at night, the day tariff is then much higher than standard rate. Therefore every other appliance uses more expensive electricity to bias the advantage only one way is akin to I suggesting that:

    Gas primary rate is used to heat hot water then all other units after are uesed for heating and cooking. Just today Powergen released their primary unit rate 3.737p/kW quarterly threshold is 1143kWh and their secondary rate is 2.972p/kW therefore gas used should be priced at 3.737p/kW
    The bottom line is that, using your figures, you are advocating that someone spends £625.97 a year for 10 years to install ‘your’ system – a total of £6,250.70.

    This expenditure will initially save £60-£75pa(my figures), £100pa(your figures)

    I have supported my disagreement of your figures you have not please provide some evidence.

    A final point.
    The Government have an active interest in promoting alternative energy and indeed encourage its use by means of grants(albeit they are totally inadequate). Your industry(I assume you sell solar systems?) understandably, stress its environmental advantages and generally make vague claims on possible money saving.

    If any alternative energy system for domestic households were financially viable, why has no single Government Department or Government backed agency – e.g. Energy Saving Trust – recommended a such a system on those grounds?

    Why has no independent and reputable organisation like Which or indeed Martin on this site made such a claim?

    They don't do so because they know such a claim would be ripped to shreds by experts far more eloquent than I!!
    i'll debate that point after some research.

    There are several factors I raised you choose not to mention, I think given the time and effort I spent arguing my point of view which is not a closed point of view but open minded I think it deserves a little more consideration than you have given it.
  • Cardew
    Cardew Posts: 29,063 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Rampant Recycler
    In using the term ludicrous it was not my intent to be antagonistic and I am quite happy to debate any point although I am quite certain it is both boring and baffling to most reading this thread. Paragraph after paragraph discussing what are realistic estimates only seves to obfuscate and detract from the main issue, which is the economic viability of solar energy.

    As you asked me to justify my calculations I will.

    Estimate of saving using the price of Gas

    Gas tariffs vary a great deal. Using tier 1(primary) prices in your argument is an irrelevance as all of that slice will be ‘used up’ anyway for purposes other than DHW or the DHW that solar does not heat. So any solar savings will be at tier 2(secondary) prices.

    Some people are still paying less than 2p/kWh(including VAT), I pay 2.113p. As stated above Equigas have just raised their charges and now charge 2.55p all at a flat rate. Even for BG(who have the highest gas prices) on their latest and most expensive standard rate tariff it is priced at 2.941p

    So in my calculations I used 3p as a figure. Far from being a ‘little on the low side’ as you stated, I suggest it is well above the average price and thus even my saving figure was an overestimate. Your use of a figure of 3.4p to base your savings in post #73 is far too high.

    The amount of energy(kWh) used for DHW obviously varies according to a number of factors – mainly the number of people in the house and if they shower or take a bath. I have not seen any estimate higher than 5,000kWh. In fact I have seen this statement in a couple of brochures from Solar Panel installation firms.
    A typical four person household in the UK uses approximately 3,000 Kwh to 4,000Kwh per year for domestic water heating alone. As solar water heating systems can contribute half of this energy, they can play an important role in reducing the energy used within houses.

    In my calculations I used the figure of 4,000 to 5,000 kWh and 50% of that provided by solar energy.

    So 4,000 – 5,000 at 3p/kWh = £120 to £150. 50% of that is £60 to £75 pa savings
    That saving is I believe a considerable over-estimation of the savings for many families. If I used a figure of 3000 kWh and a price of 2.55p the savings will be £38pa.
    Vested Interests
    I am afraid I disagree with you about it being irrelevant if you work in the Solar installation industry. Whilst you may not be promoting a specific product you are certainly promoting the industry.

    Assuming you do work in that industry, why would you need to research if there has been any Government or Government sponsored organisation that has recommended Solar energy as an economically viable proposition? It is an absolute certainty that the industry would be shouting it out load and clear in their advertising had there been such a statement.

    Lastly you shouldn’t assume that I haven’t given your figures consideration. The difficulty is that any future predictions of savings are based upon estimate, upon estimate, upon estimate, and is all ‘wet finger in the air’ territory. If you re-read our posts they are convoluted and confusing to anyone trying to see if Solar energy is a money saver – which is what this forum is all about.

    With far more certainty we can get a ball park figure of installation costs and savings at Sept 2006 rates.

    Summary in 2006
    Using your figures for a system you expect to pay £625.97p a year for 10 years.

    I calculate the initial savings to be anywhere between £40 and £75pa.

    I am a little lost on what you believe is a realistic figure, it was £100pa? but even if you double it to £200pa I still maintain it is a very poor ‘investment’

    Still anyone who bothers to wade through this thread can make up their own mind who is correct. I have no vested interest other than seeing potential customers armed with an alternative viewpoint.

    I await the day when the crazy prices currently charged are reduced to a realistic level, the Government give serious encouragement by way of substantial grants, and we have an alternative energy industry properly regulated.
  • Skiduck
    Skiduck Posts: 1,973 Forumite
    I bought a steak pie from Greggs this afternoon, can anyone tell me the payback on it? I think it's started to do something already.
  • Cardew
    Cardew Posts: 29,063 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Rampant Recycler
    Skiduck wrote:
    I bought a steak pie from Greggs this afternoon, can anyone tell me the payback on it? I think it's started to do something already.

    The conclusion of that cryptic message being that money saving for Solar systems doesn't matter?

    I fully expect that there will be supporting posts from the Alternative energy industry - Just in case anyone doesn't realise that Skiduck is connected with that industry.
  • Skiduck
    Skiduck Posts: 1,973 Forumite
    Cardew wrote:
    The conclusion of that cryptic message being that money saving for Solar systems doesn't matter?

    I fully expect that there will be supporting posts from the Alternative energy industry - Just in case anyone doesn't realise that Skiduck is connected with that industry.


    paranoid Cardew?

    very losely connected with that industry - about 1% of our concern. (we don't even actively advertise solar)

    Seems to me, Cardew, you are very quick to vilify anyone slightly connected with the sustainable energy industry. You may like to think of them all as "Simplee Solar" employees, but they are not.
    Most plumbers I know will only fit solar if they have a customer that wants them and has all the information required to make an informed decision (when I say all, I mean even your estimates.). How many plumbers do you know like to decieve their customers? I don't know a lot round here, they work on recommendation, so to decieve a customer is not in their best interests.
    I have informed you before Cardew, that I have told certain people to stay clear of solar as they would not benefit in their situation unless it was for an environmental peace of mind or to add a bit of value to their property.



    It has been stated before that chinese and japenese systems retail at around £200 due to the growth over there, these prices will come over here eventually when the government plants solar on new builds - I estimate as soon as next April (according to the White Paper). When these systems can be installed for under £1500 there will be a definate end to the debate.

    I don't know why you found it necessary to be defensive about a flipant post, but it doesn't surprise me coming from youself.
  • penrhyn wrote:
    Two things come to mind, solar water heating dosn't work in the winter when you need to heat the house, and what do you need gallons of hot water for in the summer when you want to keep cool.
    O and one more thing, no-one ever considers the benefits of climate change, its getting warmer so our heating requirements should start coming down.
    Now where can I hire a punka wallah.

    it's such a shame that some people can't see beyond their own back yards
    holier than thou
  • Skiduck
    Skiduck Posts: 1,973 Forumite
    freeloader wrote:
    it's such a shame that some people can't see beyond their own back yards

    hence why solar systems in japan and china are £200 and in UK are £1500 (less installation.)

    However that will change depending on developers next year and fuel prices in the years to come - which no one can predict apart from predicting an increase. I haven't heard of any plans for more nuclear facilities so I assume it will be at least 10 years for any of those to appear, North Sea gas has a bit of life left in it yet - not too long though. Russian import is increasing.

    Just as a tongue in cheek remark, do you know how much you will pay for oil when it is as rare as silicone? yet silicone can be controllably sustained, oil can't.

    And if Cardew is reading this, I'm a realist and not out to sell anyone solar to make a quick buck - in fact we make more money from a simple boiler change than a solar installation, so it is not on our priority list.

    The one thing that is on my personal priority list is making sure we use our resources properly.

    I would recommend insulation, controls, condensing boilers, education on using less energy before even talking about solar - my customers are more important to me that getting a few quid from a solar installation.
    As you saw on the Rogue Traders program, not one of them asked whether the occupier had suffient insulation to even get a grant.
  • Cardew wrote:
    I am quite certain it is both boring and baffling to most reading this thread. Paragraph after paragraph discussing what are realistic estimates only seves to obfuscate and detract from the main issue, which is the economic viability of solar energy.
    -
    without all the arguments and supporting statements this discussion would just be opinion. At least with everything laid out everyone can 'wade through' as you put it and make up their own minds. The economic viability has, it would seem, only been decided in your mind and from your perspective, this discussion is a means of disputing and refuting that where possible. It is by its very open and frankness designed to be enlightening and clearing away of misconceptions. But perhaps after all the debate we can come to some conclusions that we can agree on and post those as a seperate post and refer to this debate for those that wish to see how it was arrived at. I would like to think this is a reasonable solution?
    Cardew wrote:
    Gas tariffs vary a great deal. Using tier 1(primary) prices in your argument is an irrelevance as all of that slice will be ‘used up’ anyway for purposes other than DHW or the DHW that solar does not heat. So any solar savings will be at tier 2(secondary) prices.

    Some people are still paying less than 2p/kWh(including VAT), I pay 2.113p. As stated above Equigas have just raised their charges and now charge 2.55p all at a flat rate. Even for BG(who have the highest gas prices) on their latest and most expensive standard rate tariff it is priced at 2.941p

    So in my calculations I used 3p as a figure. Far from being a ‘little on the low side’ as you stated, I suggest it is well above the average price and thus even my saving figure was an overestimate. Your use of a figure of 3.4p to base your savings in post #73 is far too high.

    Thank you for the info about Equigas i will look into changing to them as my gas unit price has risen from £0.01734 in feb2006 to £0.03737 /£0.02972 pretty much doubled.
    Cardew wrote:
    The amount of energy(kWh) used for DHW obviously varies according to a number of factors – mainly the number of people in the house and if they shower or take a bath. I have not seen any estimate higher than 5,000kWh. In fact I have seen this statement in a couple of brochures from Solar Panel installation firms.



    In my calculations I used the figure of 4,000 to 5,000 kWh and 50% of that provided by solar energy.

    So 4,000 – 5,000 at 3p/kWh = £120 to £150. 50% of that is £60 to £75 pa savings
    That saving is I believe a considerable over-estimation of the savings for many families. If I used a figure of 3000 kWh and a price of 2.55p the savings will be £38pa.
    - perhaps not but I had good evidence to show that between 20- 24% of gas is used for DHW purposes so I felt that a compromise was due on the saving between your figures and mine which I suggested should be £1750 over the 10 years based on a 10% annual increase again the 10% increase supported by the www.nea.org.uk/downloads/publications/The_Fall_and_Rise_of_Fuel_Prices_and_Fuel_Poverty_(FULL_REP).pdf
    cardew wrote:
    Vested Interests
    I am afraid I disagree with you about it being irrelevant if you work in the Solar installation industry. Whilst you may not be promoting a specific product you are certainly promoting the industry.
    Is it wrong to promote a view point based on an industry? I think it is fair to do so as long as it is fairly done. I think it is reasonable to say that I am doing so in a fair and responsible manner without having to be biased.


    cardew wrote:
    Lastly you shouldn’t assume that I haven’t given your figures consideration.
    I agree I apologise, there is an however coming..
    cardew wrote:
    The difficulty is that any future predictions of savings are based upon estimate, upon estimate, upon estimate, and is all ‘wet finger in the air’ territory. If you re-read our posts they are convoluted and confusing to anyone trying to see if Solar energy is a money saver – which is what this forum is all about.
    An estimate is fine if it can be substantiated, I wouldn't say my estimates are all ‘wet finger in the air’ and where necessary the estimates have been modified to account for differing opinion.

    However your post in my opinion showed disdain (no offence) for my aguments by not mentioning them whilst I took onboard and try to accomodate your argument I felt there was little compromise in your view and no acknowledgement of some errors you had made. I have accomodated your costs on the maintenance and running of the solar which counters the saving on the boiler maintenance you reluctantly agreed to. I have countered that the interest you charged was incorrectly arrived at and was lower. Perhaps people can afford to pay from savings for the sytem that way from your perspective they would lose the interest, lets say 4.5% is what they could earn, less basic rate tax and inflation the actual return is far less than that i would imagine. There is also the asset value of the solar system and I tried to give that some consideration in determining a value. I also suggest that using a thermal store is good and proven method ideally suited to solar that would give space heating benefit as well.
    cardew wrote:
    With far more certainty we can get a ball park figure of installation costs and savings at Sept 2006 rates.
    I think it is a little naive (all due respect) to base future rates on todays rate, the overwhelming consensus is energy is going to rise. I have used and supported the argument of using a 10% rate of rise. From my own gas price charged by my supplier the rate has douvled since February. 10% seems fair to me.
    cardew wrote:
    Summary in 2006
    Using your figures for a system you expect to pay £625.97p a year for 10 years.

    I calculate the initial savings to be anywhere between £40 and £75pa.

    I am a little lost on what you believe is a realistic figure, it was £100pa? but even if you double it to £200pa I still maintain it is a very poor ‘investment’
    - I suggested £100pa with a fuel increase at 10% per annum. but as I stated above I am happy to accept a compromise figure. based on your kW used and my % used.


    After trawling through countless pilots without results, only predicted ones, I have found two pilots with results, albeit using Oil not gas as the comparison nevertheless they show a positive benefit of solar and Cardew I believe they counter some of your arguments. The belfast study is a little out of date for fuels prices but if use a oil price of £0.34/litre then the anual saving is £340 /year. without any fuel increase over the next 10 years that is a £3400 saving.

    http://www.energie-cites.org/db/belfast_140_en.pdf

    http://www.managenergy.net/download/nr216.pdf

    Cardew- I can't find any government statement advocating any fuel system purely on payback but then I can't find any statements that don't say there isn't a payback.
    What we/ I am trying to establish is a time frame and an amount for payback that is reasonable to all, as basis for working from.
    skiduck wrote:
    I would recommend insulation, controls, condensing boilers, education on using less energy before even talking about solar - my customers are more important to me that getting a few quid from a solar installation.
    As you saw on the Rogue Traders program, not one of them asked whether the occupier had suffient insulation to even get a grant.
    Given the requirements of the grant it's hardly even worth mentioning it as a grant for solar. It has little to do with solar when to get the grant the home owner must upgrade all insulation & controls at greater expense than the grant pays out.


    Not all who are associated with solar are rogues, only by frank and open debate can we provide genuine useable information that one can turn to so as to weed out the rogues. Knowledge is power.
    Perhaps a few others could joing the debate rather than leaving it to a few to do it's a public forum over 6400 views only 80 something comments- Anyone care to join in?
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