Telegraph: Lending main obstacle for buyers, causing Brits to "give up"

ultrawomble

Latest clip from Nationwide:



What is glaringly obvious is that if the 4X average earnings point is to be reachieved then there is going to have to be a serious fall in house prices - and a sustained period of 2.5-3X prices. If that does not occur, then the average is going to have to shift upwards to nearer 5X earnings. That will certainly have consequences for FTBs.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Potentially makes a big difference.

As you said, the important thing is it should be constant.....

Yawn. The data IS constant on the nationwide dataset. I'm not comparing Halifax to Nationwide data and never have. Each have their own individual dataset, yet you are clinging on to nationwide as you prefer the smaller time period as it makes things look better for your case.

No Graham, that's a link to someone on HPC claiming the long term average is around 3.5.

Yawn. Work it out yourself precisely then.

I've asked you provide a link to a reputed source which shows the actual long term average on Nationwide is 3.5 times male, mean, full time salary.

Yawn. Squirming like mad now hamish.

That was in response to your claim that the long term average is lower than the Halifax 4 times male, mean, full time salary.

Yawn. It is.

ukcarper

I’m just trying to make sense of figures according to Halifax the ratio is now 4.46 and the average House price is £162,657 making wage £36,470 about full time male.

What is actual average is open to debate and would change depending on how far you go back. 20 years doesn’t seem far but going back to 1950 takes in a big chunk when owner occupancy was less than 50%. To me it looks like house prices would need to fall somewhere between 10 and 20% to get to the long term average if this will ever happen I don’t know. But I suppose that with wage inflation of 2% and stagnate house prices it would be achieved in 7 or 8 years quicker with small nominal falls.

So in my opinion house prices are over priced but not to the extend some people think

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

False.

Land Registry uses repeat sales regression.

Is that it Spamish.

:rotfl:Talk about picking and choosing what you respond to.

Sorry Spamish, but you haven't confirmed how repeat sales regression works for the average covering all houses in all areas of the uk.


So anyway, aside from the above:-

1) The LLoyds have said that Lloyds Scottish House Price index has been suffering from statistical skew. :T

2) ESPC stated last year that the "new peaks" were due to statistical skew and would fall out. And they have done. :T

3) ASPC: We know that the over all increase masks a fair old fall in the price of city centre properties. :T

4) Registers of Scotland. Blunt average. We know the Edinburgh prices have reflected the ESPC trends fairly closely.:T
But I'm sure theres no chance of this bring the same elsewhere eh? :rotfl:

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Only one doing the muddling is you everytime you accuse me of it.

Hamish in barefaced hypocricy shocker!

wotsthat

geneer wrote: »

Is that it Spamish.

:rotfl:Talk about picking and choosing what you respond to.

Sorry Spamish, but you haven't confirmed how repeat sales regression works for the average covering all houses in all areas of the uk.


So anyway, aside from the above:-

1) The LLoyds have said that Lloyds Scottish House Price index has been suffering from statistical skew. :T

2) ESPC stated last year that the "new peaks" were due to statistical skew and would fall out. And they have done. :T

3) ASPC: We know that the over all increase masks a fair old fall in the price of city centre properties. :T

4) Registers of Scotland. Blunt average. We know the Edinburgh prices have reflected the ESPC trends fairly closely.:T
But I'm sure theres no chance of this bring the same elsewhere eh? :rotfl:

My name's Geneer and I'm a smileyfaceaholic.

Linton

ISTM this comparison of median wages with median (or is it mean?)house prices is not very helpful when it come to assessing affordabailty of houses for FTBs.

FTBs dont buy median houses, they buy cheaper ones. And the FTBs who do this will tend to be those on above median income, at least for their age.

Another factor is that the median house owner is say 10-15years into buying their property and wont therefore be on a 5Xincome mortgage multiple (or even a 3X multiple) against the current value of the median house. Dividing the median house price by the median income is nonsense.

So perhaps we need a graph of upper quartile wages against lower quartile house prices?

Graham_Devon

Linton wrote: »

FTBs dont buy median houses, they buy cheaper ones. And the FTBs who do this will tend to be those on above median income, at least for their age.

Is this factually true? I doubt it. Edit: Actually it probably is factually true right now, so I take that back. But it's not something that can actually continue.

So perhaps we need a graph of upper quartile wages against lower quartile house prices?

What? THE most twisted and VI self regulated graph to prove it's not as bad as it may seem?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Is this factually true? I doubt it. Edit: Actually it probably is factually true right now, so I take that back. But it's not something that can actually continue.

:eek:

Seriously?

You don't think the average FTB buys a cheaper house than the average house price?

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Oh dear Graham, you've outdone yourself with that one.....

Linton

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Is this factually true? I doubt it. Edit: Actually it probably is factually true right now, so I take that back. But it's not something that can actually continue. (1)

What? THE most twisted and VI self regulated graph to prove it's not as bad as it may seem? (2)

(1) So you dont believe that the richest will be far more likely to buy a house than the poorest? Really?
(2)No something that more closely matches reality. But then I guess that's not really a requirement.