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Debate House Prices
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Telegraph: Lending main obstacle for buyers, causing Brits to "give up"
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Now this link http://www.findaproperty.com/displaystory.aspx?edid=00&salerent=0&storyid=23046 which shows long term average of 4 shows it to be March 2009 to be about 4.4x and the average house price to be £157,326. Making average wage £35,750 which is near enough full time male mean on ONS so it would look like that is what Halifax use.
Yes, that is what Halifax use, and it's what they have always used.
The posters on here who try to claim the long term average house price is 3 times salary, are flat out lying.
The long term average is 4 times male full time mean salary, versus 4.5 times today.
Not 3 times female median part time salary or anything else.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Yes, that is what Halifax use, and it's what they have always used.
The posters on here who try to claim the long term average house price is 3 times salary, are flat out lying.
The long term average is 4 times male full time mean salary, versus 4.5 times today.
Not 3 times female median part time salary or anything else.
Depends on how far you go back.
The long term average for a TWENTY YEAR period is 4 and has been pulled up by the boom which happened over say 6-7 years of that 20 year period.
The long term average for a sixty year period is 3.5.
Measure the "long term average" of 2000-2010, and it will be higher, possibly 5x wages.
As always, it depends which stats you look at. If we are talking "long term" I'd suggest the statistic which shows longer term would be more beneficial than concentrating on the statistic which holds oinly a 3rd of the data.
I think it would be fair to use the longer term statistic, with more peaks and troughs built in....which comes out as 3.5x earnings being the average.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Depends on how far you go back.
The long term average for a TWENTY YEAR period is 4 and has been pulled up by the boom which happened over say 6-7 years of that 20 year period.
The long term average for a sixty year period is 3.5.
Source?
And even then, you do agree it's a multiple of male, mean, full time salary..... Not a multiple of "male and female median including part time"....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Depends on how far you go back.
The long term average for a TWENTY YEAR period is 4 and has been pulled up by the boom which happened over say 6-7 years of that 20 year period.
The long term average for a sixty year period is 3.5.
But that is a useless statistic as it is for buyers.
The average Bugatti Veyron buyer price/earnings ratio is probably about 0.1.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Source?
And even then, you do agree it's a multiple of male, mean, full time salary..... Not a multiple of "male and female median including part time"....
Source is the nationwide data from just before 1960.
Don't care what it's made up of. As long as it stays constant, over a 60 year period, instead of a much shorter 20 year period, the long term average is 3.5
You can accuse others of flat out lying, but you are using your own preferred measure of Halifax, as the data within it is shorter, and about a 3rd of that data is made up of the housing boom which gives you more leeway to suggest prices have always been this high. That's not the case. It's only the case over the short period you wish to use.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Source is the nationwide data from just before 1960.
.
Have you got a link for that. I can't find any data going back that far.0 -
But that is a useless statistic as it is for buyers.
The average Bugatti Veyron buyer price/earnings ratio is probably about 0.1.
Completely true, it's made up of people who have bought, rather than house price va average salary. But some people will simply never be able to afford houses, so I think it's a better measure, as its over a much longer period and includes all peaks ands troughs since the 60's. These sorts of measures exclude those who will never buy and have maybe got long term council places etc.
However, describing "long term average" as 20 years...well, it's hardly "long term". So data including 66% more data is far more accurate, IMHO.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Source is the nationwide data from just before 1960.
Don't care what it's made up of. As long as it stays constant, over a 60 year period, instead of a much shorter 20 year period, the long term average is 3.5
SO now you're comparing Nationwide to Halifax.... :T
Epic muddling..... Well done.
Can you provide a link please to substantiate your claim that the long term average on Halifax is actually 3.5 times income over a longer term period.
Or indeed, a link to substantiate your claim that Nationwide's long term average is 3.5 times male, mean, full time salary.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »SO now you're comparing Nationwide to Halifax.... :T
Epic muddling..... Well done.
Oh quit the whinging and muddling claim every time I answer you. We are talking about house prices are we not? Whether the data comes from halifax or Nationwide it makes no difference. Only one doing the muddling is you everytime you accuse me of it.
The link is in UKcarpers post. Post 70.Can you provide a link please to substantiate your claim that the long term average on Halifax is actually 3.5 times income over a longer term period.
Or indeed, a link to substantiate your claim that Nationwide's long term average is 3.5 times male, mean, full time salary.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Whether the data comes from halifax or Nationwide it makes no difference.
Potentially makes a big difference.
As you said, the important thing is it should be constant.....The link is in UKcarpers post. Post 70.
No Graham, that's a link to someone on HPC claiming the long term average is around 3.5.
I've asked you provide a link to a reputed source which shows the actual long term average on Nationwide is 3.5 times male, mean, full time salary.
That was in response to your claim that the long term average is lower than the Halifax 4 times male, mean, full time salary.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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