So if the average FTB age is 37......

DaddyBear

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

What were they doing leaving it this late to buy?

Someone that was 37 in 2007 would have been born in 1970.

They'd have been 25 in 1995 in the middle of the last crash, with access to the cheapest house prices relative to income in many decades.

They'd have been 29 in 1999, before the boom took off, yet while interest rates were relatively low and mortgage funding was easily available.

They'd have been 33 in 2003, when 90% to 100% mortgages were widespread, interest rates were low, and houses were still cheap.

They'd have had the best conditions for buying a house that any generation has ever seen for most of their working life, and yet spectacularly failed to do so......

And now these house price websites are full of 35-40 year olds complaining they haven't had the chance their parents did to buy a house.....

Bizarre.

I agree too. Someone who is currently 37 was in the right place at the right time. However Hamish, if you follow your thoughts through with this, the age of a FTBer is going to get much higher.

Degenerate

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Still, the point remains, the house price boards are full of people in their late 30's or early 40's who seem to have rather spectacularly missed out on the biggest buying opportunity in a generation.....

There's an interesting psychological phenomenom at work with many housing bears. Generally they came to the desire to buy at some stage in the late 90s or early 2000s after prices had been appreciating for a few years. Seeing how prices had risen, they resented paying so much more and regretted not acting sooner, so they determined to wait it out. The problem is that as prices continued to rise it created a sort of feedback loop where the longer they waited, the bigger their theoretical losses became, and the more they dug their heels in. This continues until they either have a watershed moment, cut their losses and buy, or go completely loopy like many of the HPC nuts.

quantic

Degenerate wrote: »

There's an interesting psychological phenomenom at work with many housing bears. Generally they came to the desire to buy at some stage in the late 90s or early 2000s after prices had been appreciating for a few years. Seeing how prices had risen, they resented paying so much more and regretted not acting sooner, so they determined to wait it out. The problem is that as prices continued to rise it created a sort of feedback loop where the longer they waited, the bigger their theoretical losses became, and the more they dug their heels in. This continues until they either have a watershed moment, cut their losses and buy, or go completely loopy like many of the HPC nuts.

This sounds very plausible. Would be interesting to see a case study of 2 people the same age, one who bought in the early 90's and one who didn't of similar financial means, to see how they stand against each other now.

Hank_Rearden

One explanation, or at least contributory factor, could be that the market is irrational.
For instance, nobody (apart from Hamish, obviously) knew in the mid 90s that it was a perfect time to buy - I remember being scoffed at by savvy bankers for my intention. And a mate of mine went into BTL in the very early 90s, and made a mint - at the time, nobody seemed to think this was a licence to print money - rather they thought it very dangerous.

I can't map the exact psychology of it, but cycles require memories to fail; while memories are current, then bubbles keep going. Which is why, arguably, the market hasn't had its crash yet - people still think that property must go up. Only once that meme is truly broken will price be able to go below the long term average (as it did in the last crash) without people snapping up "bargains", which keeps prices bouyant. In maybe 3 or 4 years time, I suspect long term slow drops in prices will have people saying that "we'll never see the boom of the late 90s/naughties again"...and then guess what, it'll start all over again.

Oh, and hindsight is a wonderful thing.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

What were they doing leaving it this late to buy?

Someone that was 37 in 2007 would have been born in 1970.

They'd have been 25 in 1995 in the middle of the last crash, with access to the cheapest house prices relative to income in many decades.

They'd have been 29 in 1999, before the boom took off, yet while interest rates were relatively low and mortgage funding was easily available.

They'd have been 33 in 2003, when 90% to 100% mortgages were widespread, interest rates were low, and houses were still cheap.

They'd have had the best conditions for buying a house that any generation has ever seen for most of their working life, and yet spectacularly failed to do so......

And now these house price websites are full of 35-40 year olds complaining they haven't had the chance their parents did to buy a house.....

Bizarre.

Yawn. Rather obvious troll trawl.

Easy answers of course:
20's - probably not particularly inclined to saddle themselves with a mortgage.
30's - obvious bubble, prefer to wait until after crash.


Anyway Hamish, why didn't you buy again when house prices were cheaper. Instead of waiting until 2007 that is?
It appears as if you've spectacularly failed to identify the optimum buying conditions. :T

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Degenerate wrote: »

There's an interesting psychological phenomenom at work with many housing bears. Generally they came to the desire to buy at some stage in the late 90s or early 2000s after prices had been appreciating for a few years. Seeing how prices had risen, they resented paying so much more and regretted not acting sooner, so they determined to wait it out. The problem is that as prices continued to rise it created a sort of feedback loop where the longer they waited, the bigger their theoretical losses became, and the more they dug their heels in. This continues until they either have a watershed moment, cut their losses and buy, or go completely loopy like many of the HPC nuts.

I think you've hit the nail on the head with that one....

The previous poster is a classic example of a 38 year old with those exact symptoms.

System

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I think you've hit the nail on the head with that one....

The previous poster is a classic example of a 38 year old with those exact symptoms.

geneer is 38?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Joeskeppi wrote: »

geneer is 38?

Amazing, isn't it?

cathh70

I was surpised by this figure of 37 too.

I'm 40 now, bought my first place in 1992 a year after uni, 2nd place in 1998. Most people of my age I know had bought by the mid 90s. If a decision to delay purchasing was made by people it would have been in the 2003-2008 time frame, taking the age range from the 20-30 buyers to 25-35, still a much lower average than 37.

globalds

I bought my first place when I was 20.

I then sold it and moved abroad ending up living in Japan.
I came back to UK age 33 (about 10 years ago) and became a first time buyer ...again.

I had been in the UK for less than 6 months and had only held my job for 3 months when I looked for a mortgage and received the amount I was looking for. I think about 85%.

Lots of things can happen that can result in a person delaying a property purchase , not all are negative or because of lack of wherewithal.