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Debate House Prices
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So if the average FTB age is 37......
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
What were they doing leaving it this late to buy?
Someone that was 37 in 2007 would have been born in 1970.
They'd have been 25 in 1995 in the middle of the last crash, with access to the cheapest house prices relative to income in many decades.
They'd have been 29 in 1999, before the boom took off, yet while interest rates were relatively low and mortgage funding was easily available.
They'd have been 33 in 2003, when 90% to 100% mortgages were widespread, interest rates were low, and houses were still cheap.
They'd have had the best conditions for buying a house that any generation has ever seen for most of their working life, and yet spectacularly failed to do so......
And now these house price websites are full of 35-40 year olds complaining they haven't had the chance their parents did to buy a house.....
Bizarre.
Someone that was 37 in 2007 would have been born in 1970.
They'd have been 25 in 1995 in the middle of the last crash, with access to the cheapest house prices relative to income in many decades.
They'd have been 29 in 1999, before the boom took off, yet while interest rates were relatively low and mortgage funding was easily available.
They'd have been 33 in 2003, when 90% to 100% mortgages were widespread, interest rates were low, and houses were still cheap.
They'd have had the best conditions for buying a house that any generation has ever seen for most of their working life, and yet spectacularly failed to do so......
And now these house price websites are full of 35-40 year olds complaining they haven't had the chance their parents did to buy a house.....
Bizarre.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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Average age of a person who has decided not to let the older generation have any healthcare, 27.0
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »What were they doing leaving it this late to buy?
Someone that was 37 in 2007 would have been born in 1970.
They'd have been 25 in 1995 in the middle of the last crash, with access to the cheapest house prices relative to income in many decades.
They'd have been 29 in 1999, before the boom took off, yet while interest rates were relatively low and mortgage funding was easily available.
They'd have been 33 in 2003, when 90% to 100% mortgages were widespread, interest rates were low, and houses were still cheap.
They'd have had the best conditions for buying a house that any generation has ever seen for most of their working life, and yet spectacularly failed to do so......
And now these house price websites are full of 35-40 year olds complaining they haven't had the chance their parents did to buy a house.....
Bizarre.
I kind of agree (shock lol), I have close family that bought in their teens and early twenties in the 70's and 80's. And although it wasn't as easy in the mid nineties (average age 25 at that time) it wasn't that hard either (I know as I bought at that time).
Please someone help me, I've agreed with Hamish to some extent, I must have missed something, help, I surrender to the man in a white coat.....
Have owned outright since Sept 2009, however I'm of the firm belief that high prices are a cancer on society, they have sucked money out of the economy, handing it to banks who've squandered it.0 -
Agreeing with Hamish happens to many of us occasionally. It's when you find yourself agreeing with Sibley that you need to start worrying.
Lydia
(FTB a few weeks ago, age 41, reasons for having left it this late that don't apply to most people: husband doing voluntary work and then retraining in 90s and doing job with tied house 1999-2005)Do you know anyone who's bereaved? Point them to https://www.AtaLoss.org which does for bereavement support what MSE does for financial services, providing links to support organisations relevant to the circumstances of the loss & the local area. (Link permitted by forum team)
Tyre performance in the wet deteriorates rapidly below about 3mm tread - change yours when they get dangerous, not just when they are nearly illegal (1.6mm).
Oh, and wear your seatbelt. My kids are only alive because they were wearing theirs when somebody else was driving in wet weather with worn tyres.
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I must admit this stat has puzzled me, although when quoted I have seen it refer to current FTB, so wonder if that is the key, rather than FTB in 2007.
Perhaps with the current problems in banking and elsewhere in the economy putting off most FTB (especially younger with lower earnings/less deposit, the ones that remain are therefore older.
Do we have any reliable stats available to the age of FTB over a longer, say 20 year trend?
A quick search suggests that the figure has jumped up over the last few years - so in 2007 the age was in fact 33 (http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/article7104710.ece)
CML provides the following which suggested an average age of early 29-31 (median/mean) since 2005-09 (http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/publications/newsandviews/45/152)
Articles were appearing in 2005 showing that the average FTB was getting older back then (http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2005/jul/05/business.firsttimebuyers)
The various references above dont quite tie up with what the FTB age actually when comparing the same year, however they all show an increasing age.
Average age increasing over the same period that house prices jumped...0 -
A first thing to say about the figure of 37 is that its accuracy is far from guaranteed. An obvious reason for that is that there are currently only about nine FTBs in the UK at present. Small sample bias is no doubt rife.
Further, unless you believe in little ‘official statistics fairies’ who follow all homebuyers around, furiously scribbling in a notebook every time someone makes a purchase, you quickly realise that these things are based on [probably very tiny] sample questionnaires…
Also I believe the 37 figure you cite is one for people without parental help, something that’s very difficult to pin down accurately, e.g. does a new toaster count as parental help? does a gift of £1000 count? do we have to be talking about, say, one half of a minimum deposit or more?
Now, everyone’s different of course, making the following grotesquely over-simplified [e.g. some people’s lifetime pwoperdee ladder may have three, four, or even more steps] but IMO, based on a hunch, the following are very very approximate ‘standard’ buyer ages [only approximate – in particular you could easily add up to about 5 yrs to the top of the trader-upper range], based on the early 1970s through early 2000s, i.e. pre-bubble:
University educated – FTB 22-29; Trader-upper 27-39;
Not university educated – FTB 18-25; Trader-upper 23-35.
Given that pwoperdee only started to get really prohibitively expensive in the middle part of the 2000s, i.e. not much more than 5 years ago then, yes, I do tend to agree that someone who’s 37 yr today would have still probably been in his 20s. So, yes, I do find the figure of 37 a bit odd. But see above as to why it's very likely wrong.
Something you’ll also notice is that the number of people [i.e. FTBs & trader-uppers] who benefit from lower pwoperdee prices is potentially rather large. A hypothetical 10 yrs of HPI from current level would very likely mean that the median voter would be in favour of much lower house prices, ergo that [politicians being such obliging creatures] it would most likely happen.FACT.0 -
That's life. More people getting hitched later. Saving less spending more time clubbing or down the pub. More expensive cars/insurance. Most people don't start earning reasonable salaries till they are 25 then they need to save a large chunk of salary for a deposit.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »What were they doing leaving it this late to buy?
Someone that was 37 in 2007 would have been born in 1970.
They'd have been 25 in 1995 in the middle of the last crash, with access to the cheapest house prices relative to income in many decades.
They'd have been 29 in 1999, before the boom took off, yet while interest rates were relatively low and mortgage funding was easily available.
They'd have been 33 in 2003, when 90% to 100% mortgages were widespread, interest rates were low, and houses were still cheap.
They'd have had the best conditions for buying a house that any generation has ever seen for most of their working life, and yet spectacularly failed to do so......
And now these house price websites are full of 35-40 year olds complaining they haven't had the chance their parents did to buy a house.....
Bizarre.:footie:
Regular savers earn 6% interest (HSBC, First Direct, M&S) Loans cost 2.9% per year (Nationwide) = FREE money. 0 -
Mallotum_X wrote: »A quick search suggests that the figure has jumped up over the last few years - so in 2007 the age was in fact 33
Well yes, I admit to a bit of poetic license with the 37 age, which is what our resident bears quote.
The current average FTB age is not actually 37 at all..... It's 34.
37 is the age of those without any family help, and I suspect the age of those with help is more like 30.
Still, the point remains, the house price boards are full of people in their late 30's or early 40's who seem to have rather spectacularly missed out on the biggest buying opportunity in a generation.....“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Reading a little more the definition of a FTB has problems associated with it.
Source: CMLMany borrowers classified as first-time buyers in surveys have in fact previously owned property. But, because they are not owners at the time of their move, they are classified as first-time buyers. Such "returners" may make up about a fifth of reported first-time buyers.
Returners are typically older than true first-time buyers. They provide large deposits, funded partly by a previous sale of property. And this puts them at lower risk of negative equity if their property falls in value, compared to true first-time buyers.
Sadly it looks like the stats are interesting at best, and like many others meaningless at worst. Without some idea as to the skew from 'returners' then we are not really looking at FTBers.0 -
as an example, if all FTB avg=37 and we guess that the average age of the returners is 55, then the average age of the remaining 4/5 of "FTB" is 32.5 (or 50 and 33.75)Mallotum_X wrote: »Without some idea as to the skew from 'returners' then we are not really looking at FTBers.0 -
37 does seem like an odd number, can't imagine renting/living at home for another 12 years. If you're 37 buying a house now, you really did miss the boat. If someone was in their mid 20's during the 90's and still couldn't manage at those prices, imagine how high the age of the "average FTB" is gonna be in 15 years time?0
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