The absolute fallacy of the average bull argument.

geneer

Rinoa wrote: »

We're all well aware of your creative accounting abilities.

I know you are Clownbumbles. It was after all an open discussion of your "Harsh realities" which caused you to take another extended holiday to bull island. Hows the weather over there.

Rinoa wrote: »

I'm being unduly generous with the minus £40k.

Ah bless. The warm fuzzy warmth of a completely discredited meaningless assertion.
It must be like pulling on a warm jumper for you eh mate. I mean, you bleated the same almost daily for three years.
Gosh, it must have hit you like a ton of bricks to see it all melt away.

I did warn you it would.
Do you think that makes it more or less funny?

Rinoa wrote: »

Strictly speaking if you'd bought 10 years ago when you were 28, as many 28 year olds did at the time, prices were £101,000 cheaper than this weeks ESPC report.

Not that I'm saying you've become a hilariously predictable parody of your self or anything. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

geneer

Its actually quite ironic that colonbo should show up, given the content of the OP.

geneer wrote: »

For example, in Edinburgh we've seen apparent increases in average house price (one silly boy gloated NEW PEAK!) yet it transpired that
the averages were being skewed by a combination of low volumes, and the continued sales of "money no object" half million pound town houses.

A skew which dropped out at quite a rate. As a certain someone predicted last year.
But then you learned that the hard way, didn't you C.

Rinoa

geneer wrote: »

I know you are Clownbumbles. It was after all an open discussion of your "Harsh realities" which caused you to take another extended holiday to bull island. Hows the weather over there.

Ah bless. The warm fuzzy warmth of a completely discredited meaningless assertion.
It must be like pulling on a warm jumper for you eh mate. I mean, you bleated the same almost daily for three years.
Gosh, it must have hit you like a ton of bricks to see it all melt away.

I did warn you it would.
Do you think that makes it more or less funny?






Not that I'm saying you've become a hilariously predictable parody of your self or anything. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

All you do is post words that have no meaning, add a cartoon depicting how you imagine you've won the debate and add a couple of smilies.

Hasn't worked for the last 20,000 posts on HPC, GHPC, Credit Crunch etc ~ not working now.

The reality is you could have bought in 2001 when Edinburgh house prices were £101,000 cheaper and saved yourself 10 years rent.

Still, too late now.

Adios.

IveSeenTheLight

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You've not referred anything.

Make your point succintly if you believe you have one and I'll happily make a reply comment to it.

geneer wrote: »

Just like you didn't before you mean.
Give over Lite. No ones falling for your smokescreen.

No need for smokescreens, you've not made any saliant points to try and hide from.
In your post you've still not madee a saliant point to comment on.

Give it a try geneer, unless you afraid of having a reasoned debate.

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

No need for smokescreens, you've not made any saliant points to try and hide from.
In your post you've still not madee a saliant point to comment on.

Give it a try geneer, unless you afraid of having a reasoned debate.

But I've already made my salient points LightWeight, and you've already ignored them.
What, do you want a do over? Best of 10.

geneer

Anyhow, its getting a bit smoky in here.
So here, again, are the salient points of this thread.

geneer wrote: »

Pun absolutely intended in the title by the way.

So, in the last crash average house prices fall around £10K, in nominal terms.
Doesn't seem so bad. Yet the reality is that this was widely regarded as a House Price Crash.
That in many areas homeowners found themselves in significant negative equity or losing their homes (far in excess of the average loss).
The answer of course is obvious. Global average statistics are blunt and highly liable to skewing.
Break the markets down, and a very different picture will present itself.

For example, in Edinburgh we've seen apparent increases in average house price (one silly boy gloated NEW PEAK!) yet it transpired that
the averages were being skewed by a combination of low volumes, and the continued sales of "money no object" half million pound town houses.
In fact, we've learned, YOY most property types in Edinburgh fell up to 5% during 2010.

Aberdeen is a similar case. Another "NEW PEAK WOO HOO!". Yet dig a little deeper, and we see that city centre properties actually saw significant falls at the time.

You would have thought this observation is obvious. But apparently it needs repeating.
Because how many times has some silly boy stated that "theres been no crash to speak of".

Or how many times has someone ignorantly asserted that the price of their house has gone up actually because the average price for their town, their region, or their country, has increased. Twaddle.

So heres the big secret:-

Averages prices are based on, y'know, an average.
It can be made up of lots of smaller averages.
There is no such thing as the average house.

So "no crash to speak of" because the headline figure doesn't seem that bad. Get a grip bulls.

Didn't wash during the 90's crash.
Won't was now.
Simples.

Despite the angry bull jibber jabber, diversions and sideswipes, no ones actually been able to contradict those salient points.

Dare I suggest this is simply because they cannot.

geneer

Heres another great example of what I'm talking about, courtest of LLOYDS and the Scotsman.

http://business.scotsman.com/mortgageandpropertynews/Number-of-house-sales-plunges.6720089.jp#5999936

Lloyds also revealed that the price of the average home...was 1.3 per cent higher than in the same quarter a year ago.

Woo hoo. Fantastic news! Buy now before you miss the boat.

HOUSE sales in Scotland have plunged over the past three months, as confidence has drained from the market, figures out today show.
Scottish residential property sales have halved in the past three years, despite a 7 per cent increase in 2010, according to the latest house price monitor from Lloyds TSB Scotland.

Uh oh. That doesn't sound good.
Should we apply some context and analysis or pretend that headline figure is meaningful.

Donald MacRae, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Scotland, said: "The Scottish housing market has adjusted to the recession with a halving of sales and a period of volatile price movement over the last three years.

"The pattern of quarterly falls followed by quarterly increases to give virtually static house prices over the year looks likely to be repeated during 2011."

The fluctuations in house prices are due partly to low sales levels, with average values easily distorted in a subdued market.


The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) last week reported that first-time buyer numbers had dropped by 42 per cent in December, compared with the same month a year previously, while overall lending was down 37 per cent over the same period.

So fupp all is selling, FTB market plummeting and the averages skewed into meaningless (or as spamish would say "normal seasonal variations" :rotfl:)

Gosh. I do hope no one started a gloating thread about the face LLoyds figures without pondering the deeper significance.
Particularly after reading the excellent and timely advice in this thread.

Lordy, if someone did that they would end up looking like a very silly boy indeed.

Graham_Devon

Londonsu wrote: »

Sorry any post that ends with a quote from a rubbish ad with stupid meerkats aint worth my time bothering about

So you decided to reply?

geneer

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=41319696&postcount=48

:DAnd the bulls have disappeared yet again....I wonder where they've got to?

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl:

And the rest...... Unless geneer lives in mummy's spare bedroom.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But if you want to continue your angry ranting and childish insults, then I'm afraid I'll continue to ignore you.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:Ah the comedy of barefaced hypocrisy.
Its not often someone stitches themselves up like a kipper.

Ok. Its quite often.