A short history of UK house prices

ukcarper

smeagold wrote: »

Avg house prices are £162k avg earnings are £26k, infact wages are now back at 2005 levels, in real terms,

The whole house price boom was created by speculation fuelled by easy credit, 5/6 times earnings mortgages, 125% percent mortgages, no proof of income, no deposit. teaser rates. Buy now or be forever priced out, buy now and in a year you'll be rich, 2005-7 was madness. speculative madness.

Thats over, now its 20% deposit, perfect credit score, proof of income, a credit drought, a massive debt hangover and the speculative mania is gone. Everywhere you look are warnings signs of the coming collapse of that bubble. Unemployment, consumer confidence, gdp figures, debt levels, insolvencies, credit contraction, inflation, interest rates to rise, government cuts, Everything. Like evey speculative, credit driven bubble that preceeded it this one will crash too. It's already started, and its just getting warmed up

According to the graph from HPC it now stands at 4.4x so they are not using average earnings.

DervProf

smeagold wrote: »

Everywhere you look are warnings signs of the coming collapse of that bubble. Unemployment, consumer confidence, gdp figures, debt levels, insolvencies, credit contraction, inflation, interest rates to rise, government cuts, Everything.

Yes, but apart from those facts, there is every reason to believe that the property market will soon be back to normal - prices will be soaring again.

StevieJ

smeagold wrote: »

97% of the 200,000 jobs creates last year we're part time, min wage and unemployment is rising.

You sound a bit desperate now.

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not to mention the average income of actual or potential house buyers is significantly higher than the average income of all people.

Mmmm, not sure I get what you're trying to say there Hamish.......

There's no problem with people affording Audi R8s, because the income of the actual or potential R8 buyers is significantly higher than the average income of all people.

IveSeenTheLight

DervProf wrote: »

Mmmm, not sure I get what you're trying to say there Hamish.......

There's no problem with people affording Audi R8s, because the income of the actual or potential R8 buyers is significantly higher than the average income of all people.

It's quite simple, those on lower incomes may never be in a position to be able to buy their own property and therefore they're wages in reality should be excluded from the calculation of what a homebuyer would be.

padington

The Uk's fu*ked, anyone would be mad to buy UK property in the expectation that it will go up in price faster than inflation in the next two or three years (apart from a fantastic family house or first class pent house flat in a prime london location). The gamble for any normal property in not the best part of london let alone places outside of london is - Will the UK property market hold its price whilst you can make some rental from it and/or save from not having to rent yourself ? or will all your hard work negotiating with lodgers and maintenance responsibility to make/save a few quid get taken back as the property sinks in price, leaving you doing a lot of running around with extra liabilities with absolutely no profit made or money saved ?

The property market in the uk, in a way, is how it should be, you buy one if you want a roof over your head and no other reason. Personally more and more i consider it, I'm thinking its a very expensive roof right now and possibly could be a very expensive gamble to make considering how many obvious factors are suggesting why waiting 3 years and then buying could be a much wiser move.

... and if the people who want a property but cant afford so don't buy and the people that can afford still don't buy until things pick up and if 'picking up' depends on these two groups to start buying, then thats a pretty !!!!!! mexican stand off to invest in what is for some people, all their eggs and all their baskets - and some.

http://www.howitends.co.uk/2-executive-summary.php

[Deleted User]

Many of the bears on here seem to miss the fact that house prices would have to fall by more then 5% pa (nominal or real doesn't matter) for you NOT to be losing money by renting. This is based on avg rent of £700 and avg house price of £164k.

Heyman_2

Yawn.

Unlike many on here, my partner and I actually put our head in the lions mouth and bought at the beginning of 2007. We had naff all deposit, pretty much scraped together 5% deposit + fees/stamp duty etc through a number of avenues (work sub, family etc) and bought the place we wanted.

4 years on, we're debt-free (apart from the mortgage) and on +0.79% tracker that I switched us to at the beginning of 2009. Doing very nicely thank you, comfortable even now that we've had our first daughter.

I really think a lot of people here would be better off just getting themselves a place rather than endlessly discussing the theory and the nationwide picture. The reality of ownership is actually very rewarding.

IveSeenTheLight

padington wrote: »

considering how many obvious factors are suggesting why waiting 3 years and then buying could be a much wiser move.

Time will tell.
Personally, I would think that house prices will be higher nominally in 2014 than 2011.

If that scenarior emerges, you would end up paying more for a property and have incurred three additional years rent in the process.

Your decision to wait could proove to be not that wise