January Nationwide MoM -0.1% YoY -1.1%

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The peak in BTL has been and gone on the back of interest only loans and easy equity release.

Residential property investment is the realm of those with capital not the leveraged amatuer investor.

Back to how it used to be in fact.

so you believe it is decline in the levels but still expanding according to the information provided.

"Back to how it used to be in fact" - Back to when?
It would be good to quantify these with factual levels.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

so you believe it is decline in the levels but still expanding according to the information provided.

Patience. Cycles take time to work through. Property is illiquid to trade. Many recent investors will find that returns aren't that great in the medium term.

Markets overshoot before retreating. As the herd instinct of investing creates unfounded optimism before realism takes hold.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

"Back to how it used to be in fact" - Back to when?
It would be good to quantify these with factual levels.

How many investors have prepared a long term business plan? Very few I suspect. The whole basis of their investment is based on rapidly increasing property prices in a sort time frame rather than hard cold numbers.

Mallotum_X

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I've not inferred BTL is the saviour of house prices.
I simply backed up my point which you queried on "What investors?"

Ignoring the rest of that post though?


You have changed your tune quite quickly, only yesterday you were suggesting there would be investors buying in which would maintain prices. Now you are saying that isnt the case?

The press release you refered to shows that BTL (with mortgage) is running at very low levels, not seen since before the boom really got going, and that is used to suggest a significant number of investors are out there? Do you expect this sector to return to 2007-2008 levels and if so how?

Or are you suggesting that there will be a significant number of cash investors as well...

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

As Generali showed, I too think you have missread the figures

At the end of September, there were 1.29 million buy-to-let mortgages outstanding, an increase of 2% from the previous quarter.

2% in number from previous quarter, not same quarter previous year.

Read the figures 26,900 new BTL mortgages, on 1.29m total now 26,900 is 2% not 12%.

[Quick sense check: 12% of 1.264 (1.29m-26k) would be about 150k properties in a quarter where Land reg figures show 183k total transactions. A little high perhaps?]

All of which on a back drop of previously falling BTL and a small bounce in prices, which has now reverted back to falls...

Continued increasing BTL sector? Doesnt really stack up does it?

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Patience. Cycles take time to work through. Property is illiquid to trade. Many recent investors will find that returns aren't that great in the medium term.

Markets overshoot before retreating. As the herd instinct of investing creates unfounded optimism before realism takes hold.

We'll see how that goes then.
You think there will be a contraction while many experts are thinking that the rental markets are going to expand.

As a fairly recent investor, I can tell you my returns are good and have been increasing since I invested
I therefore have no intention of selling off, indeed I'm looking at portfolio expansion options

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

How many investors have prepared a long term business plan? Very few I suspect. The whole basis of their investment is based on rapidly increasing property prices in a sort time frame rather than hard cold numbers.

bollox.
Most property investors work on rental yield and not capital appreciation.
This is the flaw in your and many others arguments that has been used previously i.e. when CGT laws changes, there was not the mass exodus you thought there would be.

Mallotum_X

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

bollox.
Most property investors work on rental yield and not capital appreciation.
This is the flaw in your and many others arguments that has been used previously i.e. when CGT laws changes, there was not the mass exodus you thought there would be.

So why were these clever property investors buying over priced city centre flats with very low yields. Oh yes to flip or hope for price increases.

Ths big boom in BTL was on the back of amature investors buying 1 or two places for their pensions, because "prices only ever go up"

Many haven't sold off as they are waiting for prices to recover, and are being helped by low rates. If a tenant is paying most of the mortgage then they can hang on, even if the price has dropped.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

bollox.
Most property investors work on rental yield and not capital appreciation.

So why wasn't BTL so popular prior to 1995?

If its that simple.

(Bear in mind that BTL pre 1995 was also focused on HMO's).

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

We'll see how that goes then.
You think there will be a contraction while many experts are thinking that the rental markets are going to expand.

As a fairly recent investor, I can tell you my returns are good and have been increasing since I invested
I therefore have no intention of selling off, indeed I'm looking at portfolio expansion options

Who owns the property is a different matter. Doesn't have to be private individuals. Social Housing Associations often purchase large tracts of new developements.

The classic defence. I'm alright Jack. The discussion isn't about you but the wider market and the trend. In fact as a player you're so small that you have no direct influence on the market, even at a local level.

A key to successful business focuses on market share to protect its investment.

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Most property investors work on rental yield and not capital appreciation. bollox.

I think you got the bollox in the wrong place.

I corrected it for you.