UK Q4 GDP contracts unexpectedly by 0.5 pct qq

1984ReturnsForReal_2

IronWolf wrote: »

uhm what? By 2015 the deficit will be at 3% of GDP if goes as planned

Well, as its just fallen at the first hurdle we can forget that plan.

amcluesent

If anyone is with their children tonight, take a look at those trusting, cherubic little faces, then imagine them drawn and gaunt with want, hunger and despair after all hope is drained from a short, brutish life.

FACT - By 2050, the living will envy the dead as famine, disease, cold and strife are the norm across Britain and not just Grimsby.

smeagold

amcluesent wrote: »

If anyone is with their children tonight, take a look at those trusting, cherubic little faces, then imagine them drawn and gaunt with want, hunger and despair after all hope is drained from a short, brutish life.

FACT - By 2050, the living will envy the dead as famine, disease, cold and strife are the norm across Britain and not just Grimsby.

Thats rather pessimistic, what is they say about a pessimist?

oh yes "A Pessimist is merely somebody in full posession of all the facts":)

1984ReturnsForReal_2

amcluesent wrote: »

If anyone is with their children tonight, take a look at those trusting, cherubic little faces, then imagine them drawn and gaunt with want, hunger and despair after all hope is drained from a short, brutish life.

FACT - By 2050, the living will envy the dead as famine, disease, cold and strife are the norm across Britain and not just Grimsby.

Amcluesent

Should I put my son out of his misery now & will I get let off for it if I mention your name?

gagahouse

StevieJ wrote: »

Including bank debts that will be offloaded when the banks are floated off.

Hence the words "potential liability" - the figure will go back down to c. 65% of GDP upon floatation, assuming of course no writedowns on any of these banks toxic assets. Of course while they maintain the fiction of "mark to model" instead of "mark to market" on their trading books, then we can never work out the actual likely liability till after the fact.

amcluesent

>Should I put my son out of his misery now <

It's relatively recently (since we started to consume huge amounts of non-renewable oil as it happens) that our culture invests so much in a couple of children, as it was reasonable to expect them to live to adulthood.

150 years ago, it was rational to have 10+ children and hope 2 might survive childhood. Still very much the norm in Africa etc. where adults always feed themselves before the wee babies at times of famine.

Returning to that mind-set will be discomforting, of course.

Rochdale_Pioneers

When I first heard it I thought they said 0.5% growth - nearly crashed when I realised it was -0.5%. Anyway, the snow explanation is at best a fig leaf and at worst the bomb that will explode in Osborne's face. Working in food manufacturing we had one week of significant snow disruption (ie the factory being shut for three days!) and a further week of significant snow havoc on transport. Yet the recovery from the shutdown saw sales up across the fortnight and some recovery of the cash lost that week. So yes, snow had an impact, but not that bad.

And even assuming that 0.5% is down to the snow (and according to Tory Andrew Tyrie of the Treasury Select Committee thats a "back of the envelope guess"), the best case scenario is 0% growth before full data comes in from December to revise it what you must assume (snow disruption and all) will be down. 1.1%, 0.7% and best case scenario 0% in Q2-4. All of which reduces tax revenues and increases government spending, which increases the deficit.

And what will Q1 bring? The VAT increase and the major uncertainty people have about their jobs or at least their standard of living seems unlikely to send them racing to the shops. So my guess is down again. The Tories - having worked very hard very quickly - have successfully created a double dip recession so that they can justify the dismantling of the rest of the public sector. Oik must be very proud.

amcluesent

>The Tories - having worked very hard very quickly - have successfully created a double dip recession <

True. But the retailers have also been trying to rip us off. Back in the winter of 2008, I snapped up loads of bargains from distressed sellers. This year, the 'sales' were a total joke and I bought nothing except 2nd hand items off Ebay. The high-street is sure to be a disaster zone when the Q1 numbers come in.

StevieJ

1984ReturnsForReal wrote: »

Well, as its just fallen at the first hurdle we can forget that plan.

But debts are lower than anticipated

The news on the public finances was a bit better, despite an apparent explosion in debt from taking RBS and Lloyds fully onto the public sector balance sheet. December's borrowing of £16.8 billion was about £3 billion less than feared. Cumulative borrowing in 2010-11 of £118.4 billion is down from £126.8 billion last year

http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/

Thrugelmir

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Where's all the rate rise enthusiasts?

Still see either one or two .25% rises by the end of the year.

Inflation is still a concern.