Ten year financial / interest rate prediction possible?

StockportGerbil

Folks :-
I have an offset mortgage with First Direct and I like the flexability of being able to dip into it instantly / as and when necessary and overpay when I've got some money to pay back into it. I like first directs customer service and availability / accessability.

I'm toying with the idea of getting their 10 year fixed rate mortgage at 5.29% for the period. Is there any organisation which is able to predict with any degree of confidence what UK interest rates will be doing over the next ten years or is that wishful thinking.

Thanks

Kevin

Ian_W

Hi Kevin,
AFAIK it is very much wishful thinking. Don't think even the Governor of the BoE could do it. Lots of forecasts for the shorter term BUT that's all they are, often then disagree and are "revised" every few months anyway. Crystal Ball, Tea Leaves or palm Reader are your best bet IMO.

There is a thread about 10yr fixed at:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=299592
Which gives the arguments pro and anti - none, however, relate to accurate predictions on IRs.

roswell

they will go up and they might come down and will cahnge a lot over 10 years, working on the theory that we are below the mean average for the last 40 years it should be a safe bet that you will save money in the long run but it cant be guarenteed.

dunstonh

No-one predicated this sustained period of low interest rates and equally no-one can predict what can happen in the future.

escroooge

a long term fix will only provide you with the certainty of what you uniquely have to repay on a monthly basis for the next 10 years. There may be times in this period of joy and sadness at what you have done. The world changes fast and I alway prefer not to enter into long term binding contracts, but do however have a 5yr fix mortgage myself, I like the peace of mind, knowledge of expenditure and knowledge that its not too far away in the distant future to provide a degree of flexibility. In 10 years time there will either be people who regretted not taking a 10 year fix, or people who were glad they didn't (who knows what will happen to the economy in the next 10 years....) If you find someone who can predict with certainty.. refer him to me next...

AndrewSmith

Any chance of the next 6 lottery numbers while you are at it :rotfl:

roswell

9 36 44 .....

dennyboy

StockportGerbil wrote:

I'm toying with the idea of getting their 10 year fixed rate mortgage at 5.29% for the period. Is there any organisation which is able to predict with any degree of confidence what UK interest rates will be doing over the next ten years or is that wishful thinking.

I have been on fix rates for the past 3 remortgages and I am basically now sick of them! I reckon I have lost hundreds in interest to the greedy banks for my security!
So now, my theory is follow the market. i.e.If the banks start to offer higher fixes, i.e. 2 years at 6.4% or 6.8% 5 years, thats when I'll panick, basically thats when the rates will probably rise. These people predict as their full time job, so my top tip is keep an eye on this, if they start offering higher fixes, get one then, cause there probably going up! But for now i'm getting a tracker.