CPI Up to 3.7% RPI Up to 4.8%

Kohoutek

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Errr, no.

If a half to 1% rise in interest rates would do all that, then we have far more issues, far more serious issues as a country, than interest rates going up.

Were at 0.5% rates. If talk of raising them, and I don't see anyone talking of over 2% this year, makes the whole house of cards fall down, then we may aswell give up now, and call the IMF.

I deleted my original post because I wasn't sure whether I misinterpreted what you said.

You seemed to be saying that you would be in favour of a stronger pound, regardless of the negative effects on the export sector (i.e. its contribution to balance of trade and GDP).

As for output....we can't simply leave the rest of the economy to screw the population over so that we can export some goods.

Graham_Devon

Kohoutek wrote: »

I deleted my original post because I wasn't sure whether I misinterpreted what you said.

You seemed to be saying that you would be in favour of a stronger pound, regardless of the negative effects on the export sector (i.e. its contribution to balance of trade and GDP).

No. As i keep saying, I'm looking for the happy medium. What we have now, isn't the happy medium.

I realise any "medium" has negative effects on one part of the economy. But it has positive effects on another.

For example. It's all good for exports. But if a growing section of our population can't afford to live anymore due to inflation and costs rising, it's no good for our benefits bill.

Kohoutek

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No. As i keep saying, I'm looking for the happy medium. What we have now, isn't the happy medium.

I realise any "medium" has negative effects on one part of the economy. But it has positive effects on another.

For example. It's all good for exports. But if a growing section of our population can't afford to live anymore due to inflation and costs rising, it's no good for our benefits bill.

Can't afford to live anymore? Come on, the UK is still one of the richest countries in the world, hardly sub-Saharan Africa, is it? Let me qualify it: "can't afford an unsustainable standard of living that is out of kilter with the strength of our economy and based on an entitlement culture".

Graham_Devon

Kohoutek wrote: »

Can't afford to live anymore? Come on, the UK is still one of the richest countries in the world, hardly sub-Saharan Africa, is it? Let me qualify it: "can't afford an unsustainable standard of living that is out of kilter with the strength of our economy and based on an entitlement culture".

This is getting silly. Everything I say is being taken out of context.

If inflation continues on its current path, for the next 12 months, and people are not receiving wage rises, people will find it harder and harder to live. Harder and harder to justify paying out forever higher costs to get to work, and pay higher tax for the privilege of working. That's just basic sense. It's already happened over the last few years with more and morew choosing and honestly stating they are better off on benefits.

Thats nothing to do with the sort of poverty of the country you mention, and I honestly have no idea where you even got the idea from to bring the country into the equation.

I'm out. Can't really talk properly if all context is going to be removed from anything said.

Kohoutek

Graham_Devon wrote: »

This is getting silly. Everything I say is being taken out of context.

If inflation continues on its current path, for the next 12 months, and people are not receiving wage rises, people will find it harder and harder to live. Harder and harder to justify paying out forever higher costs to get to work, and pay higher tax for the privilege of working. That's just basic sense. It's already happened over the last few years with more and morew choosing and honestly stating they are better off on benefits.

I don't disagree that standards of living will fall and are falling. People in public policy and economic circles are aware of that and they have been trying to gently tell the British public, like that Mervyn King quote I posted earlier.

The fundamental reason for inflation in food and energy is global patterns of supply and demand changing. We're just going to have to live and adapt to that I'm afraid...

AD9898_2

Blacklight wrote: »

You just know how this is going to unfold in the housing market:

• Interest rates will rise 0.25% making buggеr all difference to your average persons mortgage.
• Panic stricken buyers wives will force them to make a purchase *now* before rates rise any more as well as blaming them for not having found a place, moved in and decorated before interest rates went up.
• The ever lasting crash-a-holics will be forecasting that a 0.25% spells doom for the market even though prices have started to rise due to the sudden influx of hen pecked purchasers.

Interesting........... so where are the hen pecked purchasers going to get their money from ??

Just to edit...... This is the problem with all pyramid schemes, eventually they run out of money or mugs. The housing market is the ultimate pyramid scam, once in the pyramid, all want at the very least is for people to come in behind them, shovelling in more money and moving them up the pyramid.

To prove the point I can guarantee that if every bullish poster on here were suddenly a FTBr, they would want prices to fall and the pyramid to collapse.

Kohoutek

REAL_MEN_OWN_PROPERTY wrote: »

Why did you leave it so late as everyone knew the prices rises from November were feeding through the system, not least the New Year VAT rise? I informed my tennents before the start of December that their rents were going up from January by between 5 and 7.5%. By my estimates I can calculate that you are already out of pocket through your lack of foresight.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No. As i keep saying, I'm looking for the happy medium. What we have now, isn't the happy medium.

Unless you find Russell Grant !!!!!! I don't think there is one at the moment.
I have gone over what I think and it is not focusing on just solving inflation. The point a small change would have little or no effect than probably lowering spending and increasing exports costs, both resulting in lower GDP.

Really2

Kohoutek wrote: »

I don't disagree that standards of living will fall and are falling. People in public policy and economic circles are aware of that and they have been trying to gently tell the British public, like that Mervyn King quote I posted earlier.

The fundamental reason for inflation in food and energy is global patterns of supply and demand changing. We're just going to have to live and adapt to that I'm afraid...

Exactly my point also, we are in a big squeeze. And the squeeze is going to feel bad this year due to a number of factors.
Every one will feel it and their is little we can do to make it better, make a mistake and we could make it worse.

julieq

AD9898 wrote: »

Interesting........... so where are the hen pecked purchasers going to get their money from ??

Just to edit...... This is the problem with all pyramid schemes, eventually they run out of money or mugs. The housing market is the ultimate pyramid scam, once in the pyramid, all want at the very least is for people to come in behind them, shovelling in more money and moving them up the pyramid.

To prove the point I can guarantee that if every bullish poster on here were suddenly a FTBr, they would want prices to fall and the pyramid to collapse.

The money comes from a lifetime of earnings Ad. Individuals and couples earn very large amounts during their lifetime, and it compounds with promotions and inflation.

And everyone needs somewhere to live, and there are increasing numbers of households fighting over the available homes whether rented or purchased.

It really isn't a pyramid scheme. There's plenty of cash to back the assets, and you can't run out of "mugs" unless the "mugs" decide to live in tents.

And your last point doesn't really say anything. I'd love to be able to buy a painting by Van Gogh or a Mercedes or loads of other expensive items, and I'd love the price to fall so I could afford one. That doesn't make it likely or even desirable. In fact I'd love everying in life to cost me nothing at all and be paid for by someone else entirely, but it's pretty obvious that that's not sustainable.