Amazingly Niave Theory

des_cartes

chucky wrote: »

yes because taking a 6 month trend in house prices tells us what's going to happen over the next 10 years for house prices... oh dear...

Who said anything about 10 years? It will take 3 years for the Labour unsustainable house price ponzi to unwind and for prices to get back to normal sustainable levels. After then, house prices will rise or fall depending on how well the UK does in it's efforts to become a proper economy again.

chucky

des_cartes wrote: »

Who said anything about 10 years? It will take 3 years for the Labour unsustainable house price ponzi to unwind and for prices to get back to normal sustainable levels. After then, house prices will rise or fall depending on how well the UK does in it's efforts to become a proper economy again.

brilliant, absolutely brilliant...

des_cartes wrote: »

Heres a -30% prediction. The falls of the past three months to continue until 2013.

for house prices to fall your hoped 30% you would need house prices to fall 1.25% each and every month for the next 24 months...
(the reverse compounding will be minimal for the pedants that are reading this post)

and you think this will happen... good luck with that...

Linton

des_cartes wrote: »

Who said anything about 10 years? It will take 3 years for the Labour unsustainable house price ponzi to unwind and for prices to get back to normal sustainable levels. After then, house prices will rise or fall depending on how well the UK does in it's efforts to become a proper economy again.

Only if the Cons economic policies leads to a massive drop in the wealth of say 75% of the population, but under those circumstances most of the aspirant FTBers still couldnt afford a house.

Linton

FATBALLZ wrote: »

Certainly more than I believe that the property market is akin to a lovely happy ferris wheel where everyone gets equal opportunity and enjoyment. Unless Hamish ommitted to mention the ferris wheel is lubricated with oil created by grinding down the bodies of the post-1980 generation.

Equal opportunity and enjoyment has nothing to do with it - welcome to the real world of market forces.

the.ciscokid

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote:

So far from your assertion about few gaining, in fact almost everyone has been hurt by the crash, and only a vanishingly small percentage of society has gained.

Far from my assertion? looks like you do agree, since the unsustainable rises in house prices caused the crash. It is a bad thing for all but a few bankers who were bailed out and are still getting their bonuses, and speculators who timed it right.

You should be a spin doctor.

MacsReturns

des_cartes wrote: »

Who said anything about 10 years? It will take 3 years for the Labour unsustainable house price ponzi to unwind and for prices to get back to normal sustainable levels. After then, house prices will rise or fall depending on how well the UK does in it's efforts to become a proper economy again.

For ten points: define a Ponzi scheme
For a bonus ten points: how has this anything to do with the Labour government, that wasn't also inherent in Thatcher's 'home-owning democracy' of the 1980s?
And the tie-breaker: how is this different to any other free-market economy which didn't have a Labour government?

Or alternatively, regain some credibility and admit you were just spouting off uneducated nonsense...

des_cartes

chucky wrote: »

brilliant, absolutely brilliant...

for house prices to fall your hoped 30% you would need house prices to fall 1.25% each and every month for the next 24 months...
(the reverse compounding will be minimal for the pedants that are reading this post)

and you think this will happen... good luck with that...

Of course it will happen in exactly the same way as it has happened before. There was a shortage of housing in the 1990's but that didn't prevent market forces bringing house prices down to normal levels then in exactly the same way as it will now.

the.ciscokid

StevieJ wrote: »

But wouldn't there be more competition to buy them (increased effective demand) thus pushing up the price?

No, not if the banks don't lend recklessly, and people don't borrow recklessly, causing the economy to implode. The only reason prices increased is because of lax credit control. Banks shouldn't have been encouraged, and they should have been allowed to fail. A hard lesson, but one that needs to be learned.

diable

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well within the traditional context of most people buying a small place first, then building equity and moving up to a bigger place, it is appropriate and will no doubt continue to be so.

However the term Property ladder makes it sound very one directional, whereas in reality all wealth contained in housing is ultimately redistributed to the following generations.

'Property Ferris Wheel' would be a more accurate description.

I just bought a 4 bed in London for cash when I was 22......... got married then it went downhill as I now live in a cardboard box in Belgravia.

chucky

des_cartes wrote: »

Of course it will happen in exactly the same way as it has happened before. There was a shortage of housing in the 1990's but that didn't prevent market forces bringing house prices down to normal levels then in exactly the same way as it will now.

why pick 1990 why not choose 1981 or the 1974 house price corrections, is it going to happen exactly like the 1990s?

good luck with that - i hope you can a get a refund on that crystal ball of yours...