Seller's Predictions 2011

Coeus

Hi all!

2011 is fast creeping up and fair few posts now on predictions for 2011 movement in house prices.

Next year may be looking to purchase a house (FTB) based on (i) fall in house prices and (ii) mortgage availability (fair deposit built up).

So from those who are selling, what do you expect from next year? Reason I ask is that I am aware that some seller's don't have equity to sustain further decreases or otherwise are unwilling to take less profit / further loss.

Attitudes are important - are you willing to take further hits or hold out for the likely long term?

Graham_Devon

Probably best to ask on the house buying ans selling board, where the responses should a) be from those selling and b) more reasoned.

Cleaver

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Probably best to ask on the house buying ans selling board, where the responses should a) be from those selling and b) more reasoned.

I agree.

However, some people on here think they'll fall by loads, whereas others think they'll rise by loads. Take the average and that'll probably be what'll happen.

Bangkok-Dave

I have a house I would sell.
2007 price was 190k from 3 estate agents.

Personally I have a figure that would satify me and thats 175k. I would never take less and even if the market figures said it was worth less I would hang onto it.

I would expect it to be valued at over 200k within 3 years though. Once banks start lending property will fly. That's all thats holding things up.

Graham_Devon

Bangkok-Dave wrote: »

I would expect it to be valued at over 200k within 3 years though. Once banks start lending property will fly. That's all thats holding things up.

They are lending.

Do you mean "once banks start lending irresponsibly again"?

Cleaver

Graham_Devon wrote: »

They are lending.

Do you mean "once banks start lending irresponsibly again"?

I would say that there is a happy, sensible medium between the lending we saw pre-2007 and the lending situation we have now.

Bangkok-Dave

They are lending.

Do you mean "once banks start lending irresponsibly again"?

Yes I do. Oh and it will happen don't worry.

Graham_Devon

Bangkok-Dave wrote: »

Yes I do. Oh and it will happen don't worry.

So you are happy to look forward to boom? What about the inevtiable bust?

Bit like a circle, really...

Unless this time you are looking to cash in on the misery further, using what you have learnt from the previous boom?

LilacPixie

OP I think those who genuinly want to sell and have the ability to drop price will. Those who either can only afford to sell if the have a certain amount for deposit on larger house or are only interested in selling if they 'make' Y amount will just not market property or refuse to drop price. The thought process in your area and with the occupants of houses of the size you want is the only think that matters.

I sold and bought this month, I priced my then home for sale because I wanted to sell and it sold.

Batchy

an example of Five things enable a house to brought and some highlights of the impact on those in 2011

1) deposit
2) desire/need
3) Mortgage availability
4) cash flow
5) Employment


1) deposit - People who want to buy, are saving, and they are saving hard, not spending, hence not good for the economy, but will happen regardless, 10-15% will be the new minimum for a long time to come.
2) desire/need - people still want to buy, regardless of making money, its ownership that just makes you feel good, and is the main goal of the majority in this country. Media does not need to ramp prices, the buyers do that enough as it is!
3) Mortgage availability - Banks need to lend money to people to make margins and just generally be a bank, it might be tight now, and its not going to change materially anytime soon, neither increasing materially, nor decreasing materially!
4) cash flow - Inflation will effect how people can afford to spend and will rise but will increase under control, the only thing that could reduce this impact is wage inflation over the past 18months this has fell, but can categorically confirm this December has been Manic. De-stocking occured at end of 2008/2009 and this slowed things down, and the extra stress on economy was compounded by people saving rather than spending, for security and the future. But people are spending, its just not being financed by MEW.
5) employment - although the government is making cuts, I dont think there will be wholesale redundancies, there will be gradual cutting of the fat, the excesses, little impact on house prices, mainly be retiree's!

With the recent pressures on pensions being cut etc, a house being owned by retirement is the only thing you can bank on!