House Price Crash 3

gil13

interesting thread with some good points, i still think that if the banks only lent like they used to 3x or x2.5 or thereabouts it would have a capping effect. new lending criteria keeps fueling the market up and the banks are very happy and very powerful institutions and they seem happy that if you can repay over 25 years then they'll lend in ever increasing amounts. however, if banks feel BOE will tighten then over time this may change. also estate agents have some role to play but that's another thread.

meanmachine_2

Haha, I love how everyone chooses to ignore the economic arguments are go for personal attacks.

I've stated in the past that I rent cheaply from someone who has a low mortgage. Low rent in exchange for someone who is respectful and reliable.

Now looking at rents, today I can rent the same property for the same money in S London as I was paying 8 years ago. That's a rise of 0%.

Meantime property prices have more than doubled. Yeah, that makes sense. That sounds sustainable.

And 2010 is not a prediction of immediate armageddon. It's around this time that the boomers start retiring en masse, leaving the workforce, the property market and even the country.

Why do you think we have an open door on immigration?

So why don't I just buy now and sell in 2010? That would make me as mercenary as some of the people on here. No thanks.

But if the figures add up for others - and they can shoulder a rise in interest rates going forward, then go for it. There's nothing I can say to stop anyone, and the banks would LOVE to have them on their books.

meanmachine_2

mrsS wrote:

mm- I am a little intrigued!

You have changed your tune slightly in that the house price crash is not going to happen until 2010.

I smell a rat.

What do you mean "changed my tune"? You only joined in September, yet seem to think I've changed my tune when I've been predicting continued rises (at least a further 40%-ish) for more than a year.

Or are you someone who was banned and then re-joined under another name?

Very suspicious.

meanmachine_2

PoorDave wrote:

You're clearly right: everyone except you is an idiot

We didn't realise sooner because we're idiots

Boringly, I'm not saying that.

I don't recall people in the 80s partying hard in the knowledge that the good times would end on the stroke of midnight New Years Eve 1989.

But the good times did end, because the excesses of the 80s finally caught up with everyone.

I call a money supply increasing at 14%+ excessive, and we're likely to see that bubble up in inflation over the next 10 years.

Boringly for you, the Governor of the Bank of England tends to agree that the future is likely to be much less sanguine than the past 10 years.

Prepare for that, or get caught out is my advice. Takle it or leave it.

mrsS_2

ready for next set of insults from MM but...


if inflation is going up in next 10 years dont we want to be as geared as possible so inflation wipes out our fixed rate mortgages for us......


(as long as we have been sensible and can keep up the repayments of course-rising inflation is going to have little impact on a 5 year fix mortgage payment-the pay rises can go towards other non fixed costs like petrol)

I dont recall people in the 80s doing all this partying because they had property.

As MM knows full well from previous posts, my recollection of the 80s was struggling on 2 incomes to buy a really grotty 1 bed flat

Have they put re runs of "capital city" on the box by any chance?

we didnt all have yellow Porsches then you know!

Chrysalis

mrsS the same is happening now, I only know of working couples able to get a property, single income isnt enough unless you earning a huge salary.

PoorDave

meanmachine wrote:

I smell a rat.

What do you mean "changed my tune"? You only joined in September, yet seem to think I've changed my tune when I've been predicting continued rises (at least a further 40%-ish) for more than a year.

Or are you someone who was banned and then re-joined under another name?

Very suspicious.

Could be a "long time reader, first time poster" in September.

MSE doesn't ban lots of people, i don't think (could be wrong). Not like HPC...

njwd

mrsS wrote:

ready for next set of insults from MM but...
if inflation is going up in next 10 years dont we want to be as geared as possible so inflation wipes out our fixed rate mortgages for us......

Be careful to assume that an increase in CPI automatically feeds into wage inflation. Due to globalisation, outsourcing, and a flood of economic migrants from Europe willing to work for minimum wage, I suspect wage inflation isn't going to be the answer to eroding the debt.

wibble68_2

njwd wrote:

Be careful to assume that an increase in CPI automatically feeds into wage inflation. Due to globalisation, outsourcing, and a flood of economic migrants from Europe willing to work for minimum wage, I suspect wage inflation isn't going to be the answer to eroding the debt.

Good point.

We need to realize that this government will do anything to keep this so called wonder economy going. Even if it means shooting it's own citizens in the back.

meanmachine_2

mrsS wrote:

ready for next set of insults from MM but...

I'm sorry if you regard measured responses that don't agree with yours as "insults".

Therefore I won't be responding to your posts again.