House prices....

steveymp

ballyblack wrote: »

If the builders are not building any new houses surely the stock
'for sale' will get scarce and prices will move up eventually. Might take a few years but the prices will edge up

Possibly so, but I am still prepared to sell and rent for a while as I think we haven't quite "bottomed out" yet:o

I am interested in another property but the vendor has turned down offers from others as they are in a chain:o I may wait to see if mine sells then make an offer. These days you seem to be in a stronger position if you have the money to offer;) it is still very much a buyers market.

motorguy

tight_arze wrote: »

House prices still falling.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-12453332

Thats was for 2010 - last year. We're in 2011 now.

I read the key message there from a key economist was "Overall, 2011 may be the year when the local market bottoms out." - it was repeated several times.

motorguy

Freefromdebt wrote: »

I have rented for approx. 5 years after selling a house. I have two kids and work in public sector and know that I wont ever have another chance to buy a house but I dont mind. I think there is too much pressure here to 'buy your home'. This doesn't happen in Europe - the majority of the German population rent long term and only the very affluent actually own their homes.
Why should we pay an over inflated price for some bricks and mortar ?

Have to agree with you. There is a definite undercurrent that somehow its peoples 'right' to own a house, therefore prices MUST come down to allow them to do that.

Sadly, for a lot of people, that wont be the case.

motorguy

steveymp wrote: »

Possibly so, but I am still prepared to sell and rent for a while as I think we haven't quite "bottomed out" yet:o

I am interested in another property but the vendor has turned down offers from others as they are in a chain:o I may wait to see if mine sells then make an offer. These days you seem to be in a stronger position if you have the money to offer;) it is still very much a buyers market.

I think we're returning to the 'pre boom' stage whereby vendors wont deal with people who are in a chain / have houses to sell. That makes sense.

I think there is an element of smugness from buyers and sellers out there though - from sellers who are priced too high, and also from sellers who think they can buy houses for peanuts, just because they feel its 'their right'.

bingobangobongo

Whats the general feeling on longer term house prices. A lot of people have lost a third off the price of their house in the last 3-4 years. How long before (as an estimate) they could recoup this loss and afford to sell? 5 years? 10 years?

I am in this situation myself, but am keen to move to a bigger, family home. Makes sense to buy when the prices are 'low' - but if you rent out the other property how long would you need to rent it for before you could break even or even minimise the loss.

x12yhp

How can there be any talk of recovery without discussion of what is going to happen to interest rates? The whole mess arose because people were willing to take whatever they could get and pay little attention to what the future might hold. Yes, if supply drops, it is good sense that prices will be pushed up. If banks are lending the money, then people are naive enough that they will push prices. But if interest rates were to rise to (still a very low) 2.5%, all that goes clean out the window. All those people who paid too much and have been surviving because the rates are low will suddenly be in trouble. The for sale signs will increase as people realise they need to get out, not decrease as buyers snap them up. The money the banks are lending might even stay the same, but even the optimistic amongst us will realise that it costs a lot more...

That is a really massive variable in the whole debate. At the moment, there are no guarantees. They may stay very low but the BoE are increasingly considering the rise (fact, not a guess). All the green shoots are moot until this is sorted out. It is like building on a flood plane despite reports or serious rain heading your way.

motorguy

bingobangobongo wrote: »

Whats the general feeling on longer term house prices. A lot of people have lost a third off the price of their house in the last 3-4 years. How long before (as an estimate) they could recoup this loss and afford to sell? 5 years? 10 years?

I am in this situation myself, but am keen to move to a bigger, family home. Makes sense to buy when the prices are 'low' - but if you rent out the other property how long would you need to rent it for before you could break even or even minimise the loss.

We've a house that we lived in but subsequently rent out now as we've built a new one. We bought it for £128K maybe 7 years ago. At the peak of the market it was probably 'worth' around £270K. I would say now we'd struggle to get £140K for it - if even that.

My gut feeling is that it will be 10 years before it breaks £200K again, and maybe 15-20 years to get back to what it was.

motorguy

x12yhp wrote: »

How can there be any talk of recovery without discussion of what is going to happen to interest rates? The whole mess arose because people were willing to take whatever they could get and pay little attention to what the future might hold. Yes, if supply drops, it is good sense that prices will be pushed up. If banks are lending the money, then people are naive enough that they will push prices. But if interest rates were to rise to (still a very low) 2.5%, all that goes clean out the window. All those people who paid too much and have been surviving because the rates are low will suddenly be in trouble. The for sale signs will increase as people realise they need to get out, not decrease as buyers snap them up. The money the banks are lending might even stay the same, but even the optimistic amongst us will realise that it costs a lot more...

That is a really massive variable in the whole debate. At the moment, there are no guarantees. They may stay very low but the BoE are increasingly considering the rise (fact, not a guess). All the green shoots are moot until this is sorted out. It is like building on a flood plane despite reports or serious rain heading your way.

I think you're right in many ways in that a hike in rates will force people to consider dropping prices, but the other side of that is, i think the bulk of people who really were stretched beyond their limits have had to bail before now OR have had their houses repossessed. The rest will just have to tighten their belts a bit further... (me included)

But yes, rate hikes are a definite storm cloud on the horizon.

x12yhp

pgilc1 wrote: »

I think you're right in many ways in that a hike in rates will force people to consider dropping prices, but the other side of that is, i think the bulk of people who really were stretched beyond their limits have had to bail before now OR have had their houses repossessed.

But yes, rate hikes are a definite storm cloud on the horizon.

I don't know how we could take this beyond opinion but my opinion is that you are not right. We have not had a fast and steep correction. The prices have gone down, but only those which are selling. The majority of properties remain over-priced which indicates to me that there are a lot of people out there who want to sell, but who do not need to sell. Rates up and many of those may no longer 'not need' to sell.

I think that interest rates rising more than an arbitrarily small amount could lead to a genuine correction. Beyond property for sale, it will scare buyers...

tara747

leftieM wrote: »

Actually, banks will still throw money at some people so there is not the restriction of 3x salary. If you get your hands on a deposit you can get 5x salary or more. That's assuming you are in full time permanent employment, you have a squeeky clean credit history and you haven't any children.

...and never intend to have them?

ballyblack wrote: »

If the builders are not building any new houses surely the stock
'for sale' will get scarce and prices will move up eventually. Might take a few years but the prices will edge up

They are still building! There's a big new apartment block going up on the Lisburn Road (almost finished), I have seen others in various stages of completion. Madness...

pgilc1 wrote: »

Thats was for 2010 - last year. We're in 2011 now.

I read the key message there from a key economist was "Overall, 2011 may be the year when the local market bottoms out." - it was repeated several times.

Thanks, I did see the guy on the news saying that. I always believe everything I hear, of course. Oh no, wait - I don't. Thank goodness! Otherwise I would have bought a house over and over again during this crash, as hardly a month or a quarter has gone by without some VI 'economist' or other saying that we are close to the bottom. :rotfl: