House prices 'at the cliff face'

neas

just an example. my interest on my mortgage is 350 quid a month... whereas my rent was 450 quid a month :P. 100 quid saving in a sense. equating to a 1800 quid difference if i 'waited'. its swings and round abouts. Now i got my house am overpaying mortgage so i can make the next jump afterwards. Waiting and waiting forever is silly .

andykn

Is it that time of year again:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk-house-prices-will-plummet-look-at-this-scary-chart-14664.aspx

googler

I'm gonna be really pedantic, I can't help it;

If you're at the 'cliff face', you've already gone over the edge, and you're either part-way down, or standing at the bottom of the cliff looking at it.

If you're at the cliff's edge, you're still at the top but you haven't fallen yet.

I think the journalist in the quoted article meant we're at the cliff's edge.

Hey-ho.

Sibley

If property went down 20% you would see a mass buy up for the BTL landlords.
There is an odd house cheaper at the moment but most sellers are sitting on their hands and will sell when the market improves.

Cleaver

Sibley wrote: »

If property went down 20% you would see a mass buy up for the BTL landlords.

I kinda know what you mean, but I'm not always sure I agree with this view. If a share, which has been going steadily up for 12 months or so, then in a week or two it falls 20% I don't suddenly think "ooh, it's cheaper now, I'll buy some". I'd think, "hmmm, what's wrong with this share, what's going on?". And I'd watch it. And wonder whether it's a bargin or whether you're simply trying to catch a falling knife.

I guess to continue the share analogy, you'd buy in to a share at 20% if you'd done your research in to the share and were 100% sure that the fundamentals were correct and that you knew something the market didn't (or at the very least you disagreed with the market and knew why). I'm not convinced that the fundamentals of the housing market are there at the moment, hence not seeing loads of people suddenly buying as an investment in if we had a 20% fall.

diable

macaque wrote: »

If you are thinking of buying, why not hold off for a bit. In 18 months time, your deposit may be enough to buy the entire house for cash.



http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices/02-uk-net-mortgage-lending-00011.aspx

So the £650k house in London I will be able to buy for £65k? If you back your post with hard cash then I will take a risk.

phil_b_2

Cleaver wrote: »

I kinda know what you mean, but I'm not always sure I agree with this view. If a share, which has been going steadily up for 12 months or so, then in a week or two it falls 20% I don't suddenly think "ooh, it's cheaper now, I'll buy some". I'd think, "hmmm, what's wrong with this share, what's going on?". And I'd watch it. And wonder whether it's a bargin or whether you're simply trying to catch a falling knife.

I guess to continue the share analogy, you'd buy in to a share at 20% if you'd done your research in to the share and were 100% sure that the fundamentals were correct and that you knew something the market didn't (or at the very least you disagreed with the market and knew why). I'm not convinced that the fundamentals of the housing market are there at the moment, hence not seeing loads of people suddenly buying as an investment in if we had a 20% fall.

But a share is unlikely to generate you decent income. A btl giant will just look at the yield on offer. If prices dropped 20% but rents stayed largely the same then it's a no-brainer. They can be confident the property value will go back eventually and gain the monthly income.

Shares tend to be far higher risk and a different kettle.

cardsharps

phil_b wrote: »

But a share is unlikely to generate you decent income. .

Shell, Glaxo, Vodafone, and many more all pay at least 5% dividend income . And that's after tax.

ViolaLass

Can someone tell me who I can sue if/when in 18 months time I can't buy a house for what is currently my deposit? Coz it isn't fair y'know...

StevieJ

andykn wrote: »

Is it that time of year again:

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk-house-prices-will-plummet-look-at-this-scary-chart-14664.aspx

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