Here`s the thing......

Graham_Devon

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Not sure I agree with that, he was the most accurate on the house price thread last year out of around 100 people (I think), he's always said there's a housing shortage, I'd never heard of a housing shortage until he mentioned it, at the time he was ridiculed because someone new a mate who lived next to an empty house. I have a feeling he may have been overly bullish about prices this year but I'm not sure where to look. Regardless I'm struggling to think about situations where he's changed his stance significantly and I'd be glad to hear some.

Fact of the matter is, being told "I told you so" really hurts some people.

Maybe so, but in his own words, he merely got lucky.

Have a look at the 2010 predictions...

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2176759

Not exactly the messiah (and I'm probably even worse in predicting stuff), but then I aint rubbing noses and proclaiming im a genius everywhere.

Since, hes been predicting stagnation so he will claim hes correct, which, looks more likely, but the whole stance has changed....which would be fine, apart from he then creates threads in exctiement over someone on another forum changing theirs...

To summarise:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

1. Conservatives will lead the next government, fail

2. House prices will end the year marginally up on this year, somewhere between 3% and 8%. Spring bounce will be weaker than last year as the election will cause some anxiety and defer purchasing into 2011. There will be at least 3 months of flat or slightly downwards price changes. But 2011 and 2012 will be "boom years" particularly for London with the olympic build up. fail

3. There will be neither a gilt strike nor a sterling crisis. True Bank funding will continue to improve fail, with the return of securitised mortgage funding expanding somewhat from this years limited offers. LTV's will continue to increase, and bank margins decrease, as competition returns to the market. fail (one of his biggest moans)

4. BoE base rate will remain at or below 1% all year. Correct

5. The additional liquidity created by QE will not be withdrawn in 2010. Not sure, dont think it has.

6. Unemployment will peak at a slightly better than expected 2.75 million. Correct, in a way

7. Oil prices will break the $80 barrier, and trade between $80 and $100 for most of the year. Broke the barrier, but spent most of the year below 80.

8. Aberdeen house prices will return to within a couple of percent of, or possibly even slightly exceed, previous peak prices. 100% correct

9. The Gold bubble will burst, as equities, house prices and bonds remain stable investments. LOL

10. Crashaholics and Moneyweek readers will continue finding new and increasingly bizarre explanations for why the next leg of the crash is always "just around the corner". Fail, infact, looking at all the HPC bile over this forum, it seems to be the opposite.

I realise this is somewhat stupid to post these things and I'm asking for it. But I do wish he's stop pretending to be the messiah and stop pretending he doesn't change stance with the wind:

The point is, I'm right more often than just about any other poster on here. And on a debate board, there is no other point.

I don't change stance, and I got it completely wrong, in many aspects. But at least I'm not going round pretending different and rubbing noses in it at any available opportunity.

I'm having a sh*ty day...can anyoine tell?

Love you really Hamish :kisses3:

System

To be fair Graham, "not changing stance" is the biggest thing the "bears" get wrong. It's a good thing to be able to alter your opinions on things as factors change.

Graham_Devon

Joeskeppi wrote: »

To be fair Graham, "not changing stance" is the biggest thing the "bears" get wrong. It's a good thing to be able to alter your opinions on things as factors change.

Yup, so its probably best not to start threads laughing at bears for changing stance on another board?

Or should you start threads laughing and mocking such activity, but then suggest that anyone who doesn't is stupid?

I've done it myself, changed my stance on how far prices will fall (but not on how stupid it is, and how much !!!!!! is still to hit the fan). But does the same person bring up threads from 2 years ago with my predictions and rely on those to take the proverbial that I was wrong? Yes.

System

Well, back to my previous thought for that, those people on HPC are the ones that ridiculed Hamish for months, and then banned him for those opinions, which they now agree with. If it was me I'd be laughing too, not because they changed their mind but because I was right and they made themselves look like !!!!!!.

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just illustrates the point that rising house prices are purely a function of supply and demand, and the massive and worsening housing shortage in this country is an ongoing problem.

A massive and worsening housing shortage that you openly welcome.

You know there is a problem, but you celebrate the effects of it.

If there was a shortage of food, and I had a stockpile, I doubt I`d be telling people about it. Yes, that isn`t very charitable, but it`s an ugly side of human nature to boast to others about your possessions & wealth.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I realise this is somewhat stupid to post these things and I'm asking for it.

Oh good.

So long as you realise....

But I do wish he's stop pretending to be the messiah and stop pretending he doesn't change stance with the wind:

I'm not the messiah....... I'm just a very naughty boy.:D

I don't change stance, and I got it completely wrong,

True.

Now lets look at the facts on the predictions, and this time without the tactical Graham edits:

1. Conservatives will lead the next government, but very possibly with a hung parliament. The race will be closer than expected, and the tories will have to back down on much of their austerity agenda to get elected. Expect a significant change in the narrative from the tories starting in January, with the emphasis on job creation, softening the cuts, efficiency savings and elimination of unpopular programmes (ID cards, etc) rather than big culls of public sector, etc.

True on all counts. Tories formed the coalition government, which they lead, after a hung parliament. Narrative changed dramatically in January and has continued all year. Austerity and cuts were watered down. etc.

2. House prices will end the year marginally up on this year, somewhere between 3% and 8%.

True in Scotland. A bit off in England. Currently +3.4% on land registry, but this will dip by end december.

Spring bounce will be weaker than last year as the election will cause some anxiety and defer purchasing into 2011.

True

There will be at least 3 months of flat or slightly downwards price changes.

True

But 2011 and 2012 will be "boom years" particularly for London with the olympic build up.

fail--- well it looks that way for the first half of 2011 anyway, but 2012 still looks good

3. There will be neither a gilt strike nor a sterling crisis.

True

Bank funding will continue to improve

true, for most of the year

with the return of securitised mortgage funding expanding somewhat from this years limited offers.

true, we've even seen the return of lenders like Paragon who use only securitised funding


LTV's will continue to increase, and bank margins decrease, as competition returns to the market.

true, banks margins have decreased, but still too high, and more higher LTV mortgages are available, but not enough

4. BoE base rate will remain at or below 1% all year. Correct

5. The additional liquidity created by QE will not be withdrawn in 2010. Correct

6. Unemployment will peak at a slightly better than expected 2.75 million. Correct-ish (still don't know if unemployment has peaked, but currently at around 2.5 million and better than expected)

7. Oil prices will break the $80 barrier, and trade between $80 and $100 for most of the year. Broke the barrier, but spent most of the year between 70 and 90, still damn close.

8. Aberdeen house prices will return to within a couple of percent of, or possibly even slightly exceed, previous peak prices. 100% correct

9. The Gold bubble will burst, as equities, house prices and bonds remain stable investments. True to some extent on equities, house prices and bonds, but perhaps even an "Epic Fail" on the Gold price.... I'll expand more in the 2011 predictions thread.

10. Crashaholics and Moneyweek readers will continue finding new and increasingly bizarre explanations for why the next leg of the crash is always "just around the corner". True


Now Graham, of all the key points in those items, I make the score as follows:

Correct = 12

Correct-ish or damn close = 2

Incorrect = 3

I await your response, where presumably you will link to a post from any bear who was more accurate in calling the events of 2010.

StevieJ

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Of course he's right. He changes his stance to change with the way the wind is blowing at the time.

Others are wrong because they have, mostly, stuck to what they were saying.

The point is, it's rubbing anyones noses in it....be it old age pensioners with savings losing out, to FTB's who waited to get a better price, to any family who see their rents rise.

I suppose that is comparable to wishing for them to pop off in the cold to reduce demand :eek:

the.ciscokid

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Just illustrates the point that rising house prices are purely a function of supply and demand of credit, and the massive and worsening housing shortage in this country is an ongoing problem.
<snip>

FYP.

It's all about credit. Now it has returned to normal after a decade of gorging, people are stuck and cannot (afford to) sell, as people cannot afford to buy. The indebted are being bailed out, causing more problems.

There isn't a housing supply issue, there is a too much debt issue.

Graham_Devon

StevieJ wrote: »

I suppose that is comparable to wishing for them to pop off in the cold to reduce demand :eek:

Out of interest, what was actually said?

The wishing death on people came from ghouls. The same person who's putting HPC up with terrorists blowing people up.

I realise its got some excited, but there is no reference to what was said?

May have been exactly that, but I'd like ot know what was actually stated? Or is it a case of it being just more slander?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the.ciscokid wrote: »

It's all about credit. Now it has returned to normal after a decade of gorging, people are stuck and cannot (afford to) sell, as people cannot afford to buy. The indebted are being bailed out, causing more problems.

There isn't a housing supply issue, there is a too much debt issue.

Utter tosh.

And more to the point, dangerous tosh, as the muppets on hpc are only now discovering.

If it was all about credit expansion in the last 2 decades, there would be a Car price bubble.

If it was all about credit expansion in the last 2 decades, there would be a Rolex price bubble.

If it was all about credit, then a 3 bed victorian terrace in Preston wouldn't cost 60K, when an almost identical 3 bed terrace in London costs 600K.

If it was all about credit, then withdrawing 70% of mortgage funding would have meant house prices fell a lot further than the 23% they did, and didn't recover to within 10% of peak already.

And indeed house prices have gone on to set a new peak in some places, whilst credit remains at just 35% of 2007 levels. Which would be impossible if it was all about credit.

And if it was all about credit, then rents wouldn't be soaring and at a new all time peak due to the suppply shortage of housing and mortgage rationing converting demand from owner occupied to rental.

As always, it is all about supply and demand. There is nothing else.

Credit is a component of effective demand, but mortgage restrictions can never prevent HPI where a genuine shortage exists. They can only delay it.

The main driver of house prices in Britain is a crippling supply shortage, combined with immense population growth. Always has been. The credit argument is a bear myth that has been well and truly busted.