You aint seen nothing yet: Why house prices could fall another 20%

FTBFun

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You do realise thats not actually correct, and some people earn more than a million?

Oh but hang on, it's fine, as you want house prices to rise and have skewed it the other way. I better thank you!

I agree with everything you have said, btw. As I said, it's all playing with the figures. I do believe there are more people, as a percentage of the population earning very high amounts though. Footballers being one, their wages have gone insane and continue to do so. We've got a celebrity culture pumping out manufactured celebs going on to earn millions in months. Compare them to the 80's and it's simply a different world.

Actually I rather they'd stay broadly the same, or have stable growth in line with wage inflation. Not that what I want makes any difference to what will actually happen in the future mind.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

20% rise in wages?

Sorry.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

I'm not talking averages here, but I personnaly received a 25% rise this year through annual increase and promotion.

there are people out there getting decent rises and would be benefiting from a stagnant house price market if they are buying

ukcarper

FTBFun wrote: »

Actually I rather they'd stay broadly the same, or have stable growth in line with wage inflation. Not that what I want makes any difference to what will actually happen in the future mind.

I think prices staying the same for a few years would be the best solution for everybody but as you say what I think won’t make much difference to what happens.

IveSeenTheLight

StevieJ wrote: »

It appears to be the mean average of mens full time pay from the Ashe survey.

http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CommentView,guid,eb3a6842-7774-46b5-a68d-8000ade29320.aspx

As it has always been historically.

If your going to compare now to yesteryear, it's best you compare on the basis.

Fundamentaly though there is an issue in that joint mortgages have become more prevalent meaning a higher household income and mortgage availability.

Realistically, it needs to be based on household income.

Indeed the OP mentioned it circa £35,000 and this correlates with ASHE's results for 2009
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_labour/ASHE-2009/tab1_7a.xls

Thrugelmir

ukcarper wrote: »

Lots of people earn less than £25k

According to Oxfam more than 13 million people in the UK live in poverty. That's 20% of the population.

Paints a totally different picture of the real situation in the UK.

System

Thrugelmir wrote: »

According to Oxfam more than 13 million people in the UK live in poverty. That's 20% of the population.

Paints a totally different picture of the real situation in the UK.

Tsk, all these people skewing the average down.

des_cartes

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Graham_Devon wrote: »

20% rise in wages?

Sorry.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

I'm not talking averages here, but I personnaly received a 25% rise this year through annual increase and promotion.

there are people out there getting decent rises and would be benefiting from a stagnant house price market if they are buying

For the majority it's 'are house prices falling faster than my earnings are falling'.

des_cartes

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

As it has always been historically.

But is the average more or less representative than 'it has always been' ? I would suggest that with the earnings of the top decile being higher and higher in terms of multiples of median earnings that the average has become more skewed over years and is therefore less representative when looking at house price affordability.

des_cartes

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

As an aside to the statistical argy bargy; The Telegraph has been notably bearish on house prices for a while now, which does surprise me as I assumed its core readership would regard rises as a Jolly Good Thing.

Don't be surprised. The Telegraph have been talking down prices because they are closely linked to the Tories and the Tories want lower house prices.

Really2

des_cartes wrote: »

But is the average more or less representative than 'it has always been' ? I would suggest that with the earnings of the top decile being higher and higher in terms of multiples of median earnings that the average has become more skewed over years and is therefore less representative when looking at house price affordability.

You are using the wrong average, for mortgages the average wage used was full time male, not the average UK wage.