We’d like to remind Forumites to please avoid political debate on the Forum.

This is to keep it a safe and useful space for MoneySaving discussions. Threads that are – or become – political in nature may be removed in line with the Forum’s rules. Thank you for your understanding.

Debate House Prices


In order to help keep the Forum a useful, safe and friendly place for our users, discussions around non MoneySaving matters are no longer permitted. This includes wider debates about general house prices, the economy and politics. As a result, we have taken the decision to keep this board permanently closed, but it remains viewable for users who may find some useful information in it. Thank you for your understanding.
📨 Have you signed up to the Forum's new Email Digest yet? Get a selection of trending threads sent straight to your inbox daily, weekly or monthly!

You aint seen nothing yet: Why house prices could fall another 20%

1356789

Comments

  • System
    System Posts: 178,375 Community Admin
    10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    "Not once have I EVER seen you suggest that any article talking about price rises, is talking about "real term" rises."

    :D Whats the CPI and RPI again?
    This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com
  • System
    System Posts: 178,375 Community Admin
    10,000 Posts Photogenic Name Dropper
    Really2 wrote: »
    why put this in your article if you mean nominal?

    You wouldn't.
    This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 1 December 2010 at 10:09PM
    Not once have I EVER seen you suggest that any article talking about price rises, is talking about "real term" rises.
    A rise is nominal, minus inflation for the year / years and it is in real terms.

    I have no problem with that?

    I have said prices could rise in the past yet fall in real terms, it is all dependant on inflation.
    In real terms this years prices will have fallen but stayed the same nominally (there about) for the year.
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    According to the Nationwide stats the average house = 4.59 average earnings against a long term average of 4.05 , not sure where 5 comes from (must be rounding up :)). BTW it is only 3.79 where I live.

    House prices would have to fall by more than a fifth from their current level to revert to their long-term average affordability of four years’ average earnings. Even after the modest reductions announced by Nationwide Building Society today, the typical house price equals more than five years’ earnings.
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • ukcarper
    ukcarper Posts: 17,337 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    Something that has been puzzling me. As the Nationwide average house price is now £163,398 what figure do they use for average earnings.
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    ukcarper wrote: »
    Something that has been puzzling me. As the Nationwide average house price is now £163,398 what figure do they use for average earnings.

    Divide it by 4.59 icon7.gif
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • amcluesent
    amcluesent Posts: 9,425 Forumite
    edited 1 December 2010 at 10:29PM
    Looks like we'll get something like the Panic of 1837 after years of a bubble created by fractional-reserve banking. It was said of the Panic -

    "Fancied wealth sank out of sight. Paper symbols of new cities and towns, canals and roads, were not only without value, but they were now plainly seen to be so. Rich men became poor men. The prices of articles in which there had been speculation sank in the reaction far below their true value."

    Sounds familiar! :)
  • ukcarper
    ukcarper Posts: 17,337 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    StevieJ wrote: »
    Divide it by 4.59 icon7.gif

    Did seems a bit high at £35k wondered where they got that from.
  • andykn
    andykn Posts: 438 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    ukcarper wrote: »
    Did seems a bit high at £35k wondered where they got that from.

    I'm taking a risk here as I got banned from HPC for pointing this out too often.

    Traditionally, "average" earnings were mean male full time. To maintain comparisons with historical data, this appears to be still used.

    The Office Of National Statistics still publish this info, but they promote median earnings as being more representative than mean. This is the salary point that 50% of people earn more than and 50% less then. Very roughly, median male and female full time earnings are around 25k and mean male and female full time earnings are just below 30k.
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    ukcarper wrote: »
    Did seems a bit high at £35k wondered where they got that from.


    It appears to be the mean average of mens full time pay from the Ashe survey.

    http://www.noelwatson.com/blog/CommentView,guid,eb3a6842-7774-46b5-a68d-8000ade29320.aspx
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
This discussion has been closed.
★ ★ ★ Meet your Ambassadors

🚀 Getting Started

Hi new member!

Our Getting Started Guide will help you get the most out of the Forum

Categories

  • All Categories
  • 352.2K Banking & Borrowing
  • 253.6K Reduce Debt & Boost Income
  • 454.3K Spending & Discounts
  • 245.2K Work, Benefits & Business
  • 600.9K Mortgages, Homes & Bills
  • 177.5K Life & Family
  • 259K Travel & Transport
  • 1.5M Hobbies & Leisure
  • 16K Discuss & Feedback
  • 37.7K Read-Only Boards

Is this how you want to be seen?

We see you are using a default avatar. It takes only a few seconds to pick a picture.
Update Your Picture