How did people not see it coming?

JonnyBravo

amcluesent wrote: »

>some detailed predictions for the next 5 years please.<

www.howitends.co.uk

you are SquatNow and I claim my £5

Graham_Devon

JonnyBravo wrote: »

It's great how many experts saw everything coming and predicted it all.

I'll happily admit I didn't predict most of what has happened. I did see some house price falls coming and even bet on it, but the credit crunch and so much more was completely off my radar. Big deal.


Would the experts care to issue some detailed predictions for the next 5 years please.

(I won't actually act on this information as you are deluding yourself if you think of yourself as some kind of economic genius.... Yes Graham I'm talking about you)

Would you care for a ladder to climb down from that high horse of yours? Looks like you could need one.

I was asking a question as to how the experts couldn't see it coming.

I never suggested I saw it coming. I didn't. But then I'm not an expert and don't profess to be. Indeed, didn't really care too much in 2006 either. It was only the turmoil that got me interested.

THE_GHOULS_OF_GREED

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I mean, all this mess....Ireland, insane property booms, the rest of the PIGS nations, our own problems.

I mean, taking a step back, and listening to some of the stuff coming from Ireland at the moment and where the blame lies (massive property boom for instance in ireland), it does make you wonder how on earth these people couldn't see the problem.

But could they? Was the euphoria far more important, and a blind eye was the order of the day?

It seems they all "know" what to do, and all these measures are suddenly put into place to save us all. So did they know what was going to happen...or did those running countries just hope it either wouldn't happen, or wouldn't happen on their patch?

It's also a little amusing listening to the recovery talk, from various nations....it's all based on more lending and more debt. Is there any other option?

Because while you and your fellow twisted ghouls sat around wringing your hands sharing your bitterness online the majority of the right minded people amongst up were getting on with our lifes, dating, getting married, buying houses, having children, and paying down our own mortgages. How longs your life been on hold now, 8 plus years, and you are still no closer to seeing your crash. If it wasn't so hilarious it'd be tragic.

Bullfighter

amcluesent wrote: »

>Is there any other option?<

Nope. Globalisation means that our income will tumble to match that of peeps living 10 to a house in Mumbai's shanty-towns, while 250,000 corrupt, global elite gain incomprehensible wealth. The last century was a wonderful escape from reality based on burning oil in huge amounts. That's gone now.

The PIIGS (and Britain) were living a last hurrah under socialist administrations, then they ran out of other people's money to squander.

The West could have acted collectively over the decades since 1973 to address sustainable living post peak oil, peak food, peak water, ageing demographics and the risks of global pandemics and Islamist infiltration and nuclear-armed Jihadists.

But we didn't, so now we're going to hell in a handcart.

FACT - Within twenty years, the living will envy the dead.

Sadly I agree. The last 100 years of Bernaysian consumer demand generation coupled with abundant cheap oil are an aberration rather than a trend.

We need to re-set our expectations.

DervProf

Ireland.

What amazes me is that people are out on the streets protesting about cuts in spending, and the fact is that without making cuts, their country will probably go bankrupt. And yet it`s still a case of "not me, it`s not my fault". Well, that may be true, but I didn`t see any protests when their economy was booming. I didn`t hear any Irish comments such as "these 20%+ house price increases are dangerous, how are we going to pay this money back ?".

I`d have thought that people would learn from previous financial crashes that it`s the booms that cause the problem. Not only do they not see what`s going to happen, in many cases they make it worse before it does happen.

You`ve got the likes of Hamish, Sibley etc, all applauding house price rises, which I`d welcome if prices were relatively low. But prices aren`t low, are they ? The financial condition of the UK isn`t exactly rosey at the moment is it ? We need house to be bought and sold, that is true, but selling at ever higher prices usually leads to problems. It reminds me of the boy racers in the souped up Saxo....

"Yeah, we`re doing 110mph, let`s see if we can reach 120."

We know what that can lead to....... A different type of crash.

DervProf

JonnyBravo wrote: »

It's great how many experts saw everything coming and predicted it all.

I'll happily admit I didn't predict most of what has happened. I did see some house price falls coming and even bet on it, but the credit crunch and so much more was completely off my radar. Big deal.

I did mention to a few friends and colleagues that "one day the credit will run out, we`ve come to rely on debt too much, it`ll end in tears". This was often met with "no way, you don`t know what your talking about."

I`m not pleased that my prediction has been proved correct, I`m annoyed that it was so obvious to me, yet those who had the power to prevent it took no action.

ILW

THE_GHOULS_OF_GREED wrote: »

Because while you and your fellow twisted ghouls sat around wringing your hands sharing your bitterness online the majority of the right minded people amongst up were getting on with our lifes, dating, getting married, buying houses, having children, and paying down our own mortgages. How longs your life been on hold now, 8 plus years, and you are still no closer to seeing your crash. If it wasn't so hilarious it'd be tragic.

Try telling that to an Irishman who a bought 3 properties on 100% mortgages and now finds that he can neither rent nor sell the places and either has to keep making the payments or be declared bankrupt. That is where ever increasing prices can lead.

lemonjelly

Isn't this just a regurgitation of the type of discussion we were having a year/18 months ago?

Seems to be it is. & we'll get similar kind of answers from posters with different user names.

There were people who would have expressed concern at the unsustainable levels of consumer debt in the early part of this century. Whether or not they neccessarily followed that through to identify the consequences is another issue. It may have been said, tongue in cheek, that a bank could struggle, & this will have a big impact. Whether or not they really believed that, who knows?

That said, is it that big a suprise? The 80's crash was caused when lots of people working in finance suddenly found out they were trading in selling all these bundled up debts, which were then sold on again, & eventually all of a sudden no-one knew where the money was. And we all swore never again...

movilogo

You only see what you want to see.

Rainmaker_uk

Graham_Devon wrote: »

It's also a little amusing listening to the recovery talk, from various nations....it's all based on more lending and more debt. Is there any other option?

And here you have just noted what I think will be the next major issue.

The fact that all modern money is based on confidence and is not backed up by anything - essentially funny money.

When the response is quantitive easing (read printing more money) and then lending this new money to bankrupt countries this has got to be a route to danger...

Confidence in financial institutions is low you say - oh ok lets endanger the confidence in the money itself now - that'll really mess things up...

My advice - get yourselves in to assets - some day the proverbial will truely hit the fan and if you think this crash has been bad - just wait.