How did people not see it coming?

Graham_Devon

I mean, all this mess....Ireland, insane property booms, the rest of the PIGS nations, our own problems.

I mean, taking a step back, and listening to some of the stuff coming from Ireland at the moment and where the blame lies (massive property boom for instance in ireland), it does make you wonder how on earth these people couldn't see the problem.

But could they? Was the euphoria far more important, and a blind eye was the order of the day?

It seems they all "know" what to do, and all these measures are suddenly put into place to save us all. So did they know what was going to happen...or did those running countries just hope it either wouldn't happen, or wouldn't happen on their patch?

It's also a little amusing listening to the recovery talk, from various nations....it's all based on more lending and more debt. Is there any other option?

PasturesNew

It wouldn't happen to them..... one of life's facts.

You don't need insurance, you're a genius, it never happens to you. You're great because you're a genius, nothing will ever happen to you. You're immortal, not like these others.....

And that's why.

amcluesent

>Is there any other option?<

Nope. Globalisation means that our income will tumble to match that of peeps living 10 to a house in Mumbai's shanty-towns, while 250,000 corrupt, global elite gain incomprehensible wealth. The last century was a wonderful escape from reality based on burning oil in huge amounts. That's gone now.

The PIIGS (and Britain) were living a last hurrah under socialist administrations, then they ran out of other people's money to squander.

The West could have acted collectively over the decades since 1973 to address sustainable living post peak oil, peak food, peak water, ageing demographics and the risks of global pandemics and Islamist infiltration and nuclear-armed Jihadists.

But we didn't, so now we're going to hell in a handcart.

FACT - Within twenty years, the living will envy the dead.

BitterAndTwisted

Fortunately in 20 years I shall be dead but in case I'm not does anyone have any strychnine they could spare?

globalds

Boom and Bust is the way the cycle seems to work.

The harder people try to make choices risk free, the more problems get created further down the line.

Europe this time ..next we will be looking at Australia, Thailand ...or even China.
It is not a case of not seeing it coming ...it is in knowing that you can't have the growth part of the cycle without some kind of fall off at the end of it.

Herbie_Hancock_I_wish

Well there you are. Thanked all the posts. Yea why, us, the PIGS and everyone else not see this coming? Silly old beggers like me, and a few friends of a similar age were worried by this years ago. What was Brown up to I wonder. " The housing market will never be out of control again." " An end to boom and bust "

I have contacts in the PIGS and it is a great source of worry. In Spain, according to friends, their village is showing 50% unemployment. A disaster. It seems that many ex pats are locking the doors and moving back to the UK. Mind you, I think many went there without checking the whole thing out.

Friend of mine, well used to be a good customer, got into btl at the boom. Costing him a fortune at the same time as he expanded his business.


Don`t no what those blokes in skirts blowing bag pipes will achieve yesterday, but there ya go.

nickj_2

i can't actually see how any "expert" didn't see any of the credit crunch coming ,
the press were reporting that consumer debt was at an all time high when it reached £1 trillion , house prices obviously were and still are over priced - you do not have to be a mathmatical genius to see what was coming , and yet the so called experts failed miserably or opted for a head in the sand approach in the hope that "it would never and could never happen "
we know that house prices are way to high and needto come down to a realistic figure and yet after any falls the "experts " predict recovery times ..... surely they have learnt nothing from all this

Hank_Rearden

People did see it coming. I remember having a discussion about this in 2003 (stamped in memory because I was visiting a friend at Harvard) and we knew what was coming -and I'm certainly not so arrogant to think we were unique. The difference is that we didn't know when - and there was a lot of money to be made while waiting for it to happen, whether for home-owners or bankers. Those that acted in the short-term for what they knew was due to happen in the mid-term would either be priced out of the market or lose their jobs by betting prematurely on disaster. Governments didn't want to let it happen, and kept on, Canute-like, trying to buck the natural economic cycle. All the while, the intrinsic pressure for the situation to reverse/repair grew. And so when it did eventually happen, it had to be catalysed by something outside of their control. It will happen that way again....

JonnyBravo

It's great how many experts saw everything coming and predicted it all.

I'll happily admit I didn't predict most of what has happened. I did see some house price falls coming and even bet on it, but the credit crunch and so much more was completely off my radar. Big deal.


Would the experts care to issue some detailed predictions for the next 5 years please.

(I won't actually act on this information as you are deluding yourself if you think of yourself as some kind of economic genius.... Yes Graham I'm talking about you)

amcluesent

>some detailed predictions for the next 5 years please.<

www.howitends.co.uk

laurel7172

I saw it coming.

The thing is, I thought it was imminent from...oh, about 2000.

(It's fortunate I wasn't sitting on a dwindling pile waiting for the house price crash for all of that time.)

But it takes an immense amount of courage for an individual to buck the market, resist peer pressure and take a clear-eyed look at what's going on. Market hysteria can continue for years-that's a long time to hold your nerve, while your contemporaries seem to be making easy equity.