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Debate House Prices


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Net Migration Rises to 215,000

2

Comments

  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    bendix wrote: »
    Yeah, but not in Aberdeen. Aberdeen is special.

    Prices always go up in Aberdeen.

    Forgot about that.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    edited 25 November 2010 at 7:07PM
    bendix wrote: »
    Yeah, but not in Aberdeen. Aberdeen is special.

    Funnily enough......
    16 Nov 2010

    Homes in oil-rich Aberdeen are now worth 8.4% more than they were at their pre-recession peak. After hitting a low during the depths of the recession in 2009, they rose in four out of the last five quarters. A jump of 10.5% in the last three months gives an underlying annual increase of 15.3% – more than three times the growth seen in Scotland as a whole.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/scotland-bucks-the-trend-as-house-prices-hit-new-highs-1.1068527

    Aberdeen tops rental costs league

    Published: 09/11/2010
    ABERDEEN remains the most expensive city in Scotland to rent property, with the average rent for a two-bedroom flat now standing at £791, a rise of 3.3% on the same period last year.
    http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1996635/?UserKey=#ixzz16Jotzflm
    :beer:
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Posts: 58,560 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 25 November 2010 at 7:12PM
    Lloyds TSB Hamish?!

    Come on me lad. You have been telling us to use the registers of scotland for ages as thats far more accurate.

    Switched position?

    BTW, I see the ROS has aberdeen at -4.1% on the 28 day data...is this due to the snow? ;)
  • Forgot about that.

    I didn't.

    It provides endless opportunity to allow bendix's trolling to backfire to comedy effect.

    :beer:
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Lloyds TSB Hamish?!

    Come on me lad. You have been telling us to use the registers of scotland for ages as thats far more accurate.

    Switched position?


    Nope.
    3 Nov 2010
    Average house prices in Scotland are at new record levels, with some parts of the country seeing rises of almost 25% and almost every region recording increases.

    Eight local authority areas – Inverclyde, Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire, East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, City of Edinburgh, Scottish Borders and West Lothian – returned their highest-ever average price.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/scots-property-prices-reach-record-levels-1.1065521


    And now we have Graham's trolling backfiring to comedy effect as it becomes clear that two seperate indices show Aberdeen at a new all time peak.

    Well done mate.

    You get two of these.....:beer::beer:
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Full report:

    http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/mig1110.pdf

    Fig 1.1 suggests that the driver of this is less people leaving rather than more people arriving. Only 6 quarters over the last 10 years have had net migration over 200k. I do find this quite surprising, but it is what it is.

    I don't disagree that this is a driver of house prices, but I think it is much longer term factor. More falls first in my opinion.
  • HAMISH_MCTAVISH
    HAMISH_MCTAVISH Posts: 28,592 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    edited 25 November 2010 at 11:07PM
    I do find this quite surprising, .

    Yes, I rather thought you might.
    I don't disagree that this is a driver of house prices, but I think it is much longer term factor. More falls first in my opinion.

    There are two variables at work here.

    1. The swing of supply betweeen rental and sale stock. As prices rise or fall in each, supply shifts chasing returns. You'd expect nothing less in a relatively efficient market.

    2. The steadily worsening shortage of housing. As population and new household formation grow, and building fails to keep up, the overall housing vacancy rate is falling.

    I take it you realise there can be short term falls in the price of either rent or houses as supply swings between the two, but all within the context of a shortage of housing that is steadily worsening.

    The symptom you would look for in such a case would be for the rent and house price drops to get smaller, or even become absent entirely, with each swing of supply from rented to sale to rented, as overall vacant housing stock decreases.

    And so far that is exactly what we are seeing.

    The next 6 months will confirm it either way.
    “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.

    Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”

    -- President John F. Kennedy”
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    As a fisherman I am fed up with these nets migrating and stealing our fish.:mad:
  • And now we have Graham's trolling backfiring to comedy effect as it becomes clear that two seperate indices show Aberdeen at a new all time peak.

    Most of us believe you Hamish. Aberdeen is "Twinned" with Bulaweyo, Zimbabwe and the same is true there.

    http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/inflation21.11927.html

    May I respectfully suggest that you could do a lot of people a lot of favours by emigrating to your twin city. Not only would it help the much necessary boost to emigration, it might release much needed housing stock in Aberdeen.

    If you can buy a house for under US$6,000, you would have lots of cash to spend on going out more. Estate Agents do exist there, and will fix you up. Please ask for one without an Internet connection.
  • About time we closed the doors
    Blessed are the cracked for they are the ones that let in the light
    C.R.A.P R.O.L.L.Z. Member #35 Butterfly Brain + OH - Foraging Fixers
    Not Buying it 2015!
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