My perspective as a "bear"...

doire_2

quantic wrote: »

Its not like they took on a massive mortgage to buy a mansion or to spend it on hookers. A lot of families just borrowed what they could, so that they could put a house over their kids heads. No shame in this. Its just unfortunate that the banks did not do anything to save people from themselves.

I didnt say there was any shame in it.Its just a pity prices got so out of control that peoples debts got bigger and bigger.

Then again thats the problem with the sheeple they dont think for themselves.

Blacklight

doire wrote: »

You want prices to rise and that smacks of greed

I've never said that. You made it up.

I just don't want people to end up on the streets. I think it's pretty vile and sickening that some people do just because they don't want to work for it just like everyone else.

doire wrote: »

The same hardworking families who are so much in debt that if IR rates rise by 1% they are in big trouble? These poor barstewards took on mountains of debt just to own a home so get off your high horse.

You're exaggerating somewhat. Who has been allowed to strech themselves that much over the last 19 months while interest rates have been at a historic low and the banks aren't lending?

Make it up as you go along...

shupufski_2

Blacklight wrote: »

Nicely worded but you still come across as wanting something for nothing. Historically most people have had to take out mortgages to own their own home. Why should you be any different or be excused from this at the expense of everyone else?

You want prices to come down because you're adverse to borrowing and you'd rather have the money to spend on other luxuries. To me that smacks of greed.

The people who really are getting ahead now are your peers who learned to stand on their own two feet, bought because they want a place to call their own and decided life was too short to crap your pants over taking out a loan. They're the ones who've been paying it down while interest rates are low rather than waiting for reverse price inflation to do the job for them.

Do you know me personally? If not, then please do not make such baseless assertions about me.

Society is over leveraged and everything that we are seeing today is a direct consequence of that.

But good luck to you whatever it is you do to "get ahead"

doire_2

Blacklight wrote: »

You're exaggerating somewhat. Who has been allowed to strech themselves that much over the last 19 months while interest rates have been at a historic low and the banks aren't lending?

Make it up as you go along...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1328620/One-homeowners-struggling-pay-mortgage.html

IR can only go one way and when they do...............

Loughton_Monkey

I find the whole argument a little bit tedious and tiresome.

Currently, I am looking at a 'candlestick' 5-minute chart of FTSE. If I look at the last hour, I find it has fallen from about 5820 to 5796. If, however, I look at it's 8:00-ish value of 5710, then I find, lo and behold, it has gone up significantly.

But on 5th November, it peaked at nearly 5900, so it's down! Whoops. At the end of August it was barely above 5100, so it has definitely gone up!

You get the idea.

Now the FTSE is a very fast moving index. Prices change every second or so. Up, down. Any valid discussion of price movements must therefore consider the timescale in which you are operating. A scalp trader will be interested only in minute/hour movements. An Investor worries about months/years. So tell an investor that prices went down 0.3% in the last hour and he will yawn.

Now property, by definition, has a much longer timescale. The equivalent of a FTSE 'scalp trader' would be a property developer hoping to buy this month, renovate, and sell next month. But 99% of people are only really interested in the long term. So why are we all fixated with piddling movements month on month? Why are we so interested in the plethora of pundit comment who seem to be doing the equivalent of looking with a microscope at the last 10 minutes of FTSE price changes, and trying to inform a fund manager how to invest his £900 million UK Smaller Company Pension Fund?

History shows that house prices trend upward. Always have done. Occasionally, there is a temporary downwards adjustment. If this upward trend does not continue of the next 5, 10, 15 years, then I can only suggest that the price of our houses will be the least of our problems.

Blacklight

doire wrote: »

www.dailymail.co.uk

As I said... make it up as you go along.

doire wrote: »

IR can only go one way and when they do...............

...people taking out new mortgages will have to pay far more.

Blacklight

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

I find the whole argument a little bit tedious and tiresome.

Currently, I am looking at a 'candlestick' 5-minute chart of FTSE. If I look at the last hour, I find it has fallen from about 5820 to 5796. If, however, I look at it's 8:00-ish value of 5710, then I find, lo and behold, it has gone up significantly.

But on 5th November, it peaked at nearly 5900, so it's down! Whoops. At the end of August it was barely above 5100, so it has definitely gone up!

You get the idea.

Now the FTSE is a very fast moving index. Prices change every second or so. Up, down. Any valid discussion of price movements must therefore consider the timescale in which you are operating. A scalp trader will be interested only in minute/hour movements. An Investor worries about months/years. So tell an investor that prices went down 0.3% in the last hour and he will yawn.

Now property, by definition, has a much longer timescale. The equivalent of a FTSE 'scalp trader' would be a property developer hoping to buy this month, renovate, and sell next month. But 99% of people are only really interested in the long term. So why are we all fixated with piddling movements month on month? Why are we so interested in the plethora of pundit comment who seem to be doing the equivalent of looking with a microscope at the last 10 minutes of FTSE price changes, and trying to inform a fund manager how to invest his £900 million UK Smaller Company Pension Fund?

History shows that house prices trend upward. Always have done. Occasionally, there is a temporary downwards adjustment. If this upward trend does not continue of the next 5, 10, 15 years, then I can only suggest that the price of our houses will be the least of our problems.

Couldn't agree more. Great post.

I'm always bemused when people see a 0.2% drop, laugh and say "Ho, ho... I was told property prices only ever go up".

The fact is, they do.

Generali

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

Currently, I am looking at a 'candlestick' 5-minute chart of FTSE. If I look at the last hour, I find it has fallen from about 5820 to 5796. If, however, I look at it's 8:00-ish value of 5710, then I find, lo and behold, it has gone up significantly.

But on 5th November, it peaked at nearly 5900, so it's down! Whoops. At the end of August it was barely above 5100, so it has definitely gone up!

The movements up and down each day of the FTSE and its individual constituents are noise, just the same as the monthly movements in house price indices.

I have no view on what house prices will be next month. If you ask me to guess then I'll give you a number for fun but really it's no more than picking a number from the air.

Now ask me where I think real (inflation adjusted) house prices will be in 10 years time and I will give you a view and I think they will be lower. The reason? There are a lot of people out there that think they are going to be retiring for 30 or 40 years on 2/3rds of the last salary that they earned. They are wrong because the money isn't there for this to happen. When they discover they have been lied to, many will look to sell the biggest asset that they have in order to make ends meet, that being their house.

Prices in the end are set by supply and demand. People like this won't be forced sellers but in the end they'll be very highly motivated. Baby boomers have in some ways been a charmed generation but they won't end up with what they expect.

tomterm8

Generali wrote: »

Now ask me where I think real (inflation adjusted) house prices will be in 10 years time and I will give you a view.

Where do you think will real (inflation adjusted) house prices be in 10 years time?

wherediditallgothen

tomterm8 wrote: »

Where do you think will real (inflation adjusted) house prices be in 10 years time?

Too quick for me :mad: