Own a house - you're working for nothing.

des_cartes

phil_b wrote: »

Some of your facts sound a lot like personal opinion and assumption to me (with some bias and wishful thinking thrown in for good measure).

QUOTE]

The difference between my personal opinion and yours is that I am able to back mine up with evidence. House prices falling by 30% would return them to the long term multiples of earnings. What gives you reason to believe they will remain higher now that the funny money that pushed prices up is no longer available?

the_flying_pig

poppycod wrote: »

The only person who has been demonstrably shown to be desperate on this forum over the last week or so is you.

Everyone has seen through you and recognises the propagandist at work.

yeah, i dunno, i genuinely thought he was unravelling recently when he spewed out that 'pile of bricks' type drivel but just in the last day or so he seems back just the same as ever, spinning out the same tired old estate agent's mantra in just the same way as ever.

des_cartes

the_flying_pig wrote: »

yeah, i dunno, i genuinely thought he was unravelling recently when he spewed out that 'pile of bricks' type drivel but just in the last day or so he seems back just the same as ever, spinning out the same tired old estate agent's mantra in just the same way as ever.

You have to ask youself why these people are allowed on forums such as these. I'm sure if Mr Tesco or Mr Sainsbury came on here talking up the cost of food they would soon be told where to go. Why are these property market leeches allowed to talk up house prices on a forum that is supposed to be about saving money?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

des_cartes wrote: »

The difference between my personal opinion and yours is that I am able to back mine up with evidence.

False.

House prices falling by 30% would return them to the long term multiples of earnings.

False.

According to Halifax, the long term average house price is 4.0 times male mean full time earnings. And the current average house price is somewhere around 4.8 times male mean full time earnings.

So it would only require a drop of around 15% to 20% to match thre long term average.

However the Halifax long term average only goes back to the 1970's, and is therefore skewed by the three decades of the highest interest rates in the 300+ year history of the BOE.

In other words, 4 times salary was designed when interest rates were mostly at 10% plus, and reached 17% at one stage.

As there is pretty much zero prospect of base rates reaching those levels again in our lifetime, with the BOE stating the new neutrality point for rates is more like 3%, then your argument for returning to those levels falls down at the first hurdle.

What gives you reason to believe they will remain higher now that the funny money that pushed prices up is no longer available?

Gosh, do you think the shortage of a million houses might have something to do with it?

des_cartes

the_flying_pig wrote: »

yeah, i dunno, i genuinely thought he was unravelling recently when he spewed out that 'pile of bricks' type drivel but just in the last day or so he seems back just the same as ever, spinning out the same tired old estate agent's mantra in just the same way as ever.

You have to ask youself why these people are allowed on forums such as this. I'm sure if Mr Tesco or Mr Sainsbury came on here talking up the cost of food they would soon be told where to go. Why are these property market leeches allowed to talk up house prices on a forum that is supposed to be about saving money?

ess0two

des_cartes wrote: »

You have to ask youself why these people are allowed on forums such as these. I'm sure if Mr Tesco or Mr Sainsbury came on here talking up the cost of food they would soon be told where to go. Why are these property market leeches allowed to talk up house prices on a forum that is supposed to be about saving money?

Dont be such a tool,00000.2% of the population view this place,and you think any 'normal' person would take serious whats discussed here when purchasing property.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

des_cartes wrote: »

You have to ask youself why these people are allowed on forums such as these.

Why are these property market leeches allowed to talk up house prices on a forum that is supposed to be about saving money?

You have to ask yourself why these failed STR gamblers are allowed on forums such as this. Losing such huge sums by such a risky behaviour as STR-ing and having it backfire spectacularly is not very MSE at all.

And then we realise exactly why you're allowed to stay.

It's to serve as a warning to anyone else thinking about such a terminally stupid course of action. :cool:

poppycod

the_flying_pig wrote: »

yeah, i dunno, i genuinely thought he was unravelling recently when he spewed out that 'pile of bricks' type drivel but just in the last day or so he seems back just the same as ever, spinning out the same tired old estate agent's mantra in just the same way as ever.

that shows his desperation - he cannot admit what is going on out there.

He is morally wrong as always.

And he is factually wrong.

The only way to make him go away is to ignore him.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

poppycod wrote: »

spit spit spit spit spit

BNP forums must be quiet tonight if you're trolling over here.

des_cartes

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

False.



False.

According to Halifax, the long term average house price is 4.0 times male mean full time earnings. And the current average house price is somewhere around 4.8 times male mean full time earnings.

So it would only require a drop of around 15% to 20% to match thre long term average.

However the Halifax long term average only goes back to the 1970's, and is therefore skewed by the three decades of the highest interest rates in the 300+ year history of the BOE.

In other words, 4 times salary was designed when interest rates were mostly at 10% plus, and reached 17% at one stage.

As there is pretty much zero prospect of base rates reaching those levels again in our lifetime, with the BOE stating the new neutrality point for rates is more like 3%, then your argument for returning to those levels falls down at the first hurdle.



Gosh, do you think the shortage of a million houses might have something to do with it?

Go back even further to the 1950's and 1960's when mortgage rates were similar to now and you will find that house prices were still 3-4 times earnings. As for average incomes being around 35k as you claim, i suppose if you include premier division footballers and celebrities you might be close but the median is nearer to 23k. Supply and demand of course only comes into play if there is the finance available to increase demand. Demand for houses at current price levels is as relevant as demand for Ferraris from boy racers.