Nationwide HPI -0.3% - Forex

THE_GHOULS_PARADISE

Aberdeenangarse wrote: »

Yeah Ghouls we know

Don't be so disingenuous in future. You cant put words, or anything else in my mouth.

AD9898_2

TBH it's pretty irrelevant, if you look at the facts (very low approvals/lending) you can see that the housing market is toast. It only takes a relatively small number of expensive houses to sell to skew the figures.

The bottom line is, if you're selling at this time, the highest probability outcome is it will languish on the market for months. In fact looking on Rightmove I've seen a very high proportion that have been on for years.

Low IR's are the key at this time, allowing desperate sellers to try and 'wait it out', it's seems quite obvious that any serious movement upwards (even to a meagre 2-3%) would send the market into the abyss.

Generali

AD9898 wrote: »

TBH it's pretty irrelevant, if you look at the facts (very low approvals/lending) you can see that the housing market is toast. It only takes a relatively small number of expensive houses to sell to skew the figures.

The figures are mix adjusted to avoid this. Nationwide worked out a long time ago that if one month a lot of 2 bed terraces sell and then next month a manor house is sold, comparing the prices of the 2 is likely to cause some unwanted volatility in the index.

AD9898 wrote: »

The bottom line is, if you're selling at this time, the highest probability outcome is it will languish on the market for months. In fact looking on Rightmove I've seen a very high proportion that have been on for years.

Low IR's are the key at this time, allowing desperate sellers to try and 'wait it out', it's seems quite obvious that any serious movement upwards (even to a meagre 2-3%) would send the market into the abyss.

I agree with all this with a caveat. Never underestimate the UK housing market's ability to defy gravity. British people, for reasons best known to themselves, want to pay a lot of money for a house.

the_flying_pig

Generali wrote: »

... British people, for reasons best known to themselves, want to pay a lot of money for a house.

er, right.

wherediditallgothen

DervProf wrote: »

You should stay off the sauce, mate.

Otherwise one day it will ketchup with you.

Generali

the_flying_pig wrote: »

er, right.

For the 25 years I have spent following the UK housing market, I keep on being told how great it is that prices rise by just about anyone I can find. I also spent many years being told the same thing by people at dinner parties, in pubs and at work.

The conclusion I have come to is that British people like housing to be expensive. I am rapidly coming to the same conclusion about Aussies.

JonnyBravo

Generali wrote: »

The conclusion I have come to is that British people like housing to be expensive. I am rapidly coming to the same conclusion about Aussies.

No, what happens is people pay £x and then they hate to see prices lower than that because;
a) they feel they have missed out on the bargains
b) they feel poorer

Lots of owners are happy to see prices going up as the opposite of a&b applies. Nobody said humans had to be logical, you've only got to see the gnashing of teeth in here to see the emotion involved.

blueboy43

Generali wrote: »

For the 25 years I have spent following the UK housing market, I keep on being told how great it is that prices rise by just about anyone I can find. I also spent many years being told the same thing by people at dinner parties, in pubs and at work.

The conclusion I have come to is that British people like housing to be expensive.

Another of Thatchers legacies.

Britains and Aussies like to gamble, and what better than a large leveraged bet on house prices. After all - it worked for your parents in most cases.

I think it is as much to do with unhealthy attitudes to inflation, ie most people don't have a problem with inflation rates of between 2 and say 5%

JonnyBravo

Unhealthy attitude?
I'd be happy to see inflation of 5%. Why is that unhealthy?

martinbuckley

Generali wrote: »

I keep on being told how great it is that prices rise by just about anyone I can find. I also spent many years being told the same thing by people at dinner parties, in pubs and at work.

Likewise. In the mid to late 80's, my in-laws were experiencing rampant HPI and my MIL used to have an agent round about every 2 months to value her house so that she could talk about how rich they'd become around the dinner table whenever we visited. They talked it up so much, my BIL bought a flat with a 100% mortgage at the height of the boom. It took him almost 10 years to shift it and pay off his debt.

This topic of conversation dried up around 1992 though, but I occasionally tried resurrecting it by asking her if she'd had a valuation recently. Strangely enough, even during the recent decade of boom, she kept her HPI mouth well & truly shut!