MSE News: Nationwide: house prices continue to drop

chucky

brit1234 wrote: »

Transaction levels are so low that figures will be a little more random however the trend is clearly down and likely to carry on for the next year at least.


Remember these figures are being highly distorted upwards by socalled affordable housing and foriegn buyers.

yeah you're right Brit - there have been huge numbers of foreign buyers reported in Widnes, Wigan and Blackpool.

they are the ones maintaining UK prices high...

angrypirate

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And that's exactly why the bears won't be getting their crash.

Their last great hope for the level of forced sales needed to trigger a proper crash was mass redundancies from the spending review, and/or a double dip recession.

But with the vast majority of the job losses coming from natural attrition, there won't be the compulsory redundancies required to trigger forced selling.

And with growth being significantly stronger than expected, the prospect of a double dip recession is also fading fast.

Time is running out for the crashaholics.... The pre-Olympic bounce is now only a year or so away, and right after that you have the biggest demographic surge of FTB's reaching buying age in history, bigger than the boomers generation, which will last for over a decade..... The start of which coincides nicely to the lead up to the next general election, with all the ensuing bribery for the public that will entail, and you'd better believe no government will go into an election with a crash ongoing.

So the bears urgently need a crash to happen, it has to be big, it has to be fast, it has to get them 20% or 30% off in the next 12 months or so, and there is now virtually no chance they'll get it.

Whereas the bulls know if they sit tight and absorb the few percent of falls over the next 12 months, they'll then be into a decade or more of solidly rising prices.

I know which side I'd rather be on.....;)

Pre olympic bounce? PRE OLYMPIC BOUNCE....:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Please, stop. My sides are splitting with laughter....you're killing me. Thats the best thing I've heard since Brown's "I have abolished boom and bust"

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

lax lending?

Define lax lending.

chucky

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A 0.7% fall for October sounds about right, and does point to the Halifax being a statistical blip.

i don't think "statistical blip" is the complete answer. house prices fell on the halifax index but there is more to it.

i'm sure there are regional price variances with the Nationwide and Halifax indexes that distorted the Halifax index that month.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

angrypirate wrote: »

Pre olympic bounce? "

Just you wait and see....

In fact, thread now bookmarked for "rubbing your face in it" purposes in early 2012.:rotfl:

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Define lax lending.

No ta, I'm not even going down that path with you....such a thing never existed in Hamish world

AD9898_2

Well I hate to blow my own trumpet but ...... Oh go on then , I said that the house price rises were wholly based on unsustainable short term policies. Current prices are no longer sustainable based on medium/long term sound economic fundamentals.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

A pretty picture...

fyi... the period from early 2007 to the end of 2007 with 10% YoY HPI is defined as stagnation by the Devonian Institute of Economic Theory.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No ta, I'm not even going down that path with you....such a thing never existed in Hamish world

I see.

Probably better you leave it as a meaningless sound bite then.;)

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I see.

Probably better you leave it as a meaningless sound bite then.;)

Well yes, it probably is better.

At least then you can keep entertaining the rest of us by calling "lax lending" a meaningless soundbite, and getting excited over the pre olympic boom