MSE News: Nationwide: house prices continue to drop

1984ReturnsForReal_2

But house prices in my area are already down to late 2004 levels.

That is South Warks (the more affluent area).

Really2

neas wrote: »

not as big of a drop as i was expecting to be honest. With Halifax's shock 3. odd percent i was expecting 2%+. Still fall is good for all .

I think this proves that the Halifax for last month fas a glitch/one off.
It will be interesting to see if there is any kind of correction on that this month.

torontoboy45

JonnyBravo wrote: »

I'm surprised there's anyone left around your area Dirk. Your "humour" should have driven them off long ago.

most left yrs ago, jonny.

dirk lives in a detroit suburb.

angrypirate

Really2 wrote: »

I think this proves that the Halifax for last month fas a glitch/one off.
It will be interesting to see if there is any kind of correction on that this month.

I find it hard to believe that Halifax didnt check and recheck those figures last month. In fact, im sure they did everything in their power to keep them as high as possible.


Hmm, interesting to note in the report

“Finally, additional quantitative easing could have the
impact of raising inflation expectations, which in turn
could encourage investors to divert more money from
cash holdings into property-related assets.

Surely the last thing this country needs is more money tied up in things like property. The idea of cutting interest rates wasnt so that people could invest in property - it was to encourage people to spend on the high street.

DervProf

What we need here, is a comment or two from Sibley or Hamish to give us hope. The news from Nationwide is terrible.........


I predicted -0.3%.

My house is worth less than it was a month ago :undecided

However, my bank balance is quite a lot higher than a month ago :beer:

You can keep your HPI, I don`t care, I`m going to buy some stuff today, with money I`ve earned, not borrowed. :T

angrypirate

Also interesting to note that the september figure is 0.0% - i believe this is a revision - wasnt it positive?

Really2

angrypirate wrote: »

I find it hard to believe that Halifax didnt check and recheck those figures last month. In fact, im sure they did everything in their power to keep them as high as possible.

I am not saying they did not but you can have anomalies in data. By default larger falls are more likely to have a larger margin of error.
the 3%+ came from no where and has not been replicated in this data, something is not right somewhere.
Otherwise both indexes would be matching as they are both mix adjusted and seasonally adjusted.

Generali

Some thoughts:

- Non-seasonally adjusted, house prices fell by 1.4% Sept - Oct. The seasonal adjustment makes the fall look smaller (rightly IMO)
- According to Nationwide, house prices have been falling since June and May wasn't exactly a bumper month.
- Prices are now up around 1.4% so far in 2010, non-seasonally adjusted. House prices seem to be adjusted upwards by about 2% to take into account seasonal factors in the final 3 months of the year.
- Unless something changes in the next 3 months I reckon we'll see house prices down about 5% over the course of 2010. That's only really a 'straight line prediction' so take it with a pinch of salt and do feel free to rub my nose in it come January's monthly bun fight over the Nationwide numbers.
- Interesting to note that Nationwide's seasonally adjusted number is massively different from Halifax's. 80% lower in fact. Halifax has more Northern lending, areas where more GDP comes from Government spending. Nationwide more Southern. North-South divide anyone?

torontoboy45 wrote: »

gen will be along shortly to remind us all about 'noise' levels.

Just for you torontoboy: One month's figure is just noise.

angrypirate

Really2 wrote: »

I am not saying they did not but you can have anomalies in data. By default larger falls are more likely to have a larger margin of error.
the 3%+ came from no where and has not been replicated in this data, something is not right somewhere.
Otherwise both indexes would be matching as they are both mix adjusted and seasonally adjusted.

Why would they be matching? The only thing that ever matches about their data is the general trend (and that is only most of the time) - the actual figures are more often than not quite different - they currently stand 4k apart, they peaked 13k apart (199k and 186k), 3 months apart (July 07 and Oct 07). Halifax does tend to be more sensitive, but the nationwide normally follows a couple of months behind

Graham_Devon

Hmph. I was told house prices only ever go up when I got on the ship