Housing Market in 10-20 years time

Graham_Devon

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

thing is, there already had been a larger correction both in nominal and percentage terms than there was in the 90's.

House prices corrected to the long term 30 year trend as shown by Nationwide.

This trend incporporated the peaks and troughs of the booms and busts over the last 30 years

Over the last few months it did trend that line very closely and is currently underneath the trend line again.

This trend showed a 2.9% per annum increase over the 30 years.

The trend line is pulled up by the prices, hence its curvature.

Secondly, the boom has been much larger than the 90's. Therefore, it goes hand in hand that the bust is likely to be larger.

IveSeenTheLight

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The trend line is pulled up by the prices, hence its curvature.

Secondly, the boom has been much larger than the 90's. Therefore, it goes hand in hand that the bust is likely to be larger.

No Graham, the curvature is down to the compounding effect of the interest.
It would have been pulled down by the time and years below the trend as well.

It's a exponential graph

We explained this before.

Take £100 in an account earning 3% interest.
Extrapolate that 3% interest over the 30 years.
Each year you earn the same 3% however the graph produced to show the money in your account would show a similar curve.

the Nationwide graph shows an exponential real house price trend of 2.9% per year

bigbigmamamoo

olly300 wrote: »

Were they built before the 60's?

I live in a flat with a fireplace but that's because it was built before the 60's. Likewise every flat I've lived in that was built before the 60s has a fireplace there as all those built after I've stayed in don't.

oh you are right, I've been biased by my own experience living in Scottish cities full of Victorian tenements. so that is what I think of when I think of flats.

I think new-built city centre flats are going to nose-dive in price, partly because people will wake up to how badly built they are

I recently moved from a semi-detatched to a flat and I really notice the difference. After being empty all day in winter the semi was freezing, the flat with neighbours all around, with people at home was much cozier.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The trend line is pulled up by the prices, hence its curvature.

Secondly, the boom has been much larger than the 90's. Therefore, it goes hand in hand that the bust is likely to be larger.

you're not the brightest probably because you never got a great education but everyone of your predictions have been way out so far - why would now be any different...

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I'm not going to pretend to have such a large ego. I think it's far too soon to be able to predict an exact percentage as thingsw change so often, so largely at the moment.

So 50-70%.

50%-70% house price drops :rotfl: